Model output discussion 11/12/21

[Tim Bland]

GEM is definitely pick of the bunch this morning. Would have snow on the ground for most at Christmas …

[mulzy]

Ext *mean* eps an improvement on recent runs as the core of higher heights is further north allowing colder air to advect in quicker.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM is definitely pick of the bunch this morning. Would have snow on the ground for most at Christmas …

Them charts can't be so accurate at such long range out!but whatever would fall from sky would most definitely be snow.

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM is definitely pick of the bunch this morning. Would have snow on the ground for most at Christmas …

1987 at Christmas

[ICE COLD]

8 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext *mean* eps an improvement on recent runs as the core of higher heights is further north allowing colder air to advect in quicker.

Yes Mr Mulzy I do love it when you bring good news . Hopefully we get something along the lines of this

Edited December 13, 2021 by ICE COLD

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The ballooning HP is the starting point with it’s initial slight shifting northwards.  That seems to be the way forward now with decent confidence and from there the possibilities open.  So we seem to be very much in the ball park with Atlantic not in it.  If the HP brings us clear skies then the nights will get pretty chilly indeed…not a bad starting point.  I’ll look no further for now.

This is ECM t120…position A

GFS t120

GEM t120

 

all 3 in very good positions there for increased cold options moving forward.  UKMO no so much for me.

BFTP 

 

Edited December 13, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ICE COLD]

Well the slide is on . EC op a bit of an outlier

[northwestsnow]

Det = outlier

 

[TSNWK]

On 13/12/2021 at 07:54, ICE COLD said:

Well the slide is on . EC op a bit of an outlier

Brilliant.. the ECM was a warm outlier days 6 to 8

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Det = outlier

 

Maybe the ens were similar to the GEM ?

[seabreeze86]

Brilliant upgrades overnight GEM obviously the pick on the bunch but the ECM is also much better.

Let’s build momentum with the 12z , never confident with a easterly until 96 hrs but still fantastic model viewing all the same 

[Mark Smithy]

So, the GFS 0z comes to the party and this one's not illegal. In fact it's really rather good.

The famous 1962/3 winter began on Boxing Day. We're an awfully long way from that but it's interesting to see a pattern shift emerging.

 

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Brilliant upgrades overnight GEM obviously the pick on the bunch but the ECM is also much better.

Let’s build momentum with the 12z , never confident with a easterly until 96 hrs but still fantastic model viewing all the same 

I'd be confident by 192h given the extent of computational resolvement associated with modelling the easterly.

[Updated_Weather]

Yep it seems the EC op and control were mild outliers in terms of 850mb temps - good number of the ENS dropping 850s to -6 as early as the 21st/22nd

[Singularity]

The ECM 00z is actually the most sustainable going forward for keeping the high west to north of the UK, for it has the best Atlantic trough-ridge orientation.

A trade-off of pace for durability - but it does appear EPS are more keen on pace at this time.

[Frostbite1980]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I'd be confident by 192h given the extent of computational resolvement associated with modelling the easterly.

Wow thats brave considering we have seen cross model agreement before and it has all gone wrong at the last minute.

[northwestsnow]

Christmas odds?

Cold high - 60 %

Easterly-     20 %

Disgusting South westerlies 20 %

That's where I put us right now , only my opinion of course.

Everyone knows I love a ramp ,but being serious for a minute 120-144 is now crucial for Xmas- I suspect the long rangers were not anticipating the high getting as far north as to disrupt the jet stream, they could still be right. 

The mjo will offer a window for us I expect, but it will be limited ...

 

[That ECM]

On 13/12/2021 at 08:14, Frostbite1980 said:

Wow thats brave considering we have seen cross model agreement before and it has all gone wrong at the last minute.

This is the tool I use when it comes to easterlies.

[bluearmy]

41 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext *mean* eps an improvement on recent runs as the core of higher heights is further north allowing colder air to advect in quicker.

And a 34% cluster in support of a gem type solution …..be calm everyone …….. let’s watch the pendulum swing back and forth …..

[Frostbite1980]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And a 34% cluster in support of a gem type solution …..be calm everyone …….. let’s watch the pendulum swing back and forth …..

I will gladly take those odds

[StretfordEnd1996]

Continued interest going forward this morning - the ECM and GFS don't quite get to that cold injection we're all looking for but still has promise -

But thankfully our friend the GEM (definitely the most reliable of the 3!) Certainly does -  

 

It is the coldest looking run compared to the rest of the suit, mind - 

[Staffmoorlands]

Nice upgrades this morning with a real risk of a cold Christmas on the cards. Temperatures falling from this Friday across the UK

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

And a 34% cluster in support of a gem type solution …..be calm everyone …….. let’s watch the pendulum swing back and forth …..

Guess I under did it at 20 %

Wise words,  now it's counting down I'm suddenly losing confidence !!

" Once bitten" kicking in perhaps...

 

[tight isobar]

Nice- very nice this morning- and the 2m temp plots starting to look - the association with east/north easterly inflow, rapidly gaining

[Purga]

GEFS trending ever colder this morning with only a few members above normal - most below and some very cold runs.

GEM throws up a dream scenario for the run up to Christmas !

 

PS: The wonderful CFS isn't too shabby either

Edited December 13, 2021 by Purga