Model output discussion 11/12/21

[That ECM]

What I like is that often we see at T144 range the output when noticeably different reality sits in the middle. Ukmo and ecm “mean”  most would take that.

 

[Ali1977]

Under she goes

[northwestsnow]

EC is an absolute snorter !! 

Please be right ..

[PiscesStar]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Under she goes

Right in time for Christmas!!  

[Scandinavian High.]

Big question will it be cold enough for white stuff if this comes off.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Scandinavian High. said:

Big question will it be cold enough for white stuff if this comes off.

its a bit marginal looking if im honest

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 15/12/2021 at 06:54, Scandinavian High. said:

Big question will it be cold enough for white stuff if this comes off.

Uppers of -2 probably required in that set up...dew points would be low due to short sea track and winds off a dry continent.

[TSNWK]

ECM is a good run but I'm not seing a need for booms yet? South Easterly draw will be dry and it's always risky if the snow risk is introduced by sliders

[DavidS]

Not sure the ECM is really bringing the cold, as the high isn’t around for long enough to build cold.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, DavidS said:

Not sure the ECM is really bringing the cold, as the high isn’t around for long enough to build cold.

not a great run really,considering where we was at 168,i know the GFS was a vey good run but i feel we are now running out of time.otherwise its going to be constantly back to chasing again.

[TSNWK]

On 15/12/2021 at 07:01, Lukesluckybunch said:

not a great run really,considering where we was at 168,i know the GFS was a vey good run but i feel we are now running out of time.otherwise its going to be constantly back to chasing again.

Agree.. ECM again fails to convince beyond 168.. but in fairness it did look better up to 168

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Why are people talking about uppers at a chart over 200 hours away! 

We need something to draw the cold air west and an undercutting Atlantic assault is just the ticket. 

The higher heights in southern Europe continues to be a drag, if we lower hights down there the road to cold will be a dead cert. 

[Nick F]

Morning. Not a huge amount of difference between 00z EC det from yesterday's 12z run, there seems to be a signal for a lobe of the TPV over northern Canada to surge across the Atlantic next week, but encountering blocking high over Griceland and NE Atlantic. 

Think the models this far out won't resolve well how the jet and lows moving in from the west across the Atlantic evolve when they encounter the block. Models are all too often too hasty to break down blocking, 00z EC more of a negative tilt than yesterday's 12z, with the approaching Atlantic trough as it pushes up against the block, meaning lows will disrupt and go under the block. How far south the lows disrupts makes all the difference on our small islands to the rain/snow boundary - given cold air will be trying to advect west to the north of the lows approaching the SW. But no point getting hung up on this from this far out, the models unlikely to have a handle how the block evolves against the pressure exerted from the west over the Atlantic. Blocking often ends up more resistant than the models predict at range.

[Valleyboy]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Agree.. ECM again fails to convince beyond 168.. but in fairness it did look better up to 168

People need to chill.  There are so many runs to look at in a 24 hour period, and there are members in here taking each one as gospel!  The models are playing with with ideas, and the good thing is they are generally cold ones!  This will keep changing, so best not to get too hung up on any one output.

[Ali1977]

We just want to see the 10 day EC Mean to still have heights to our north, if there’s a toss up between heights to our north and a breakdown from the west it might just leave us in the perfect position for Xmas snow - and remember there’s plenty of models showing blocking way out beyond Xmas still - snowy Xmas followed by a freeze would be amazing!! 

Edited December 15, 2021 by Ali1977

[mulzy]

Early view of the eps day 9-11 an improvement on last night and better than this mornings GEFS. Seems like the pattern is a little further south - though it’s knife edge as ever!

[SLEETY]

You can't look beyond 5 days in these set-ups, too much to resolve, doubt we will any the wiser until the weekend, would not write off a white Xmas either. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Early view of the eps day 9-11 an improvement on last night and better than this mornings GEFS. Seems like the pattern is a little further south - though it’s knife edge as ever!

on the latest ECM what do you think the temperatures would be like towards the end of the run?

[Kasim Awan]

Good ecm where it matters.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Good ecm where it matters.

good point!

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

on the latest ECM what do you think the temperatures would be like towards the end of the run?

4-5C for Heathrow (raw temps from model run)

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Good ecm where it matters.

This was the mean 240 yesterday , hopefully something similar or better on this ENS run

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 0z for 21st Dec

If the high is in this position for 21st Dec we really are in a good position going forward. I'd bank this at t144 any day

[nick sussex]

Something to bear in mind with low pressure moving in from the sw against high pressure . The isobars you see on the slp charts will give a slightly misleading picture . So if they look se the flow will be more ese to east.

This is relevant when you’re trying to import drier air with lower dew points to meet Atlantic fronts .

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by nick sussex

[TSNWK]

On 15/12/2021 at 07:34, Kasim Awan said:

Good ecm where it matters.

Agree . As had been a theme for a couple of days at least.  ECM improves up 168 / 192 then goes a bit iffy.. it's as though it has a bias built into the algorithm that increases in weighting as the objective details become more uncertain in the later stages of each run.. hope that makes sense?