Model output discussion 11/12/21

[mb018538]

Here's the snow charts for the 00z ECM run (not to be taken as gospel of course) 

[booferking]

Snow showers xmas day pick your white christmas location bookies.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I can't cope ❤

If this isn’t a Full on cold outlier I’ll be surprised - and very happy 

[sheikhy]

I will take the gfs at 144 hours over ukmo any day!!dont care how the ukmo looks over greenland but it takes the shortwave west of norway too far west and we are left in pretty much close to a dire situation!!i menntioned this to mikepool yesterday!!BUT then ecm comes out and gives both models the finger with the best 00z of the winter❄!!

[bluearmy]

Why do we do this to ourselves ???

btw, please don’t say anything to anyone ……someone said something last month ….. we know they did because it all went t*ts ……

let’s see where this sits in the clusters ……

[Windysun1]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

❤❤❤❤❤❤❤

You better not be taking us on a ride ECM !!!

It would need to be a sleigh ride if that materialised!!

[Ali1977]

I mean - WOW

[mb018538]

GFS and ECM just slightly different by day 10! ECM looks very cold and blocked. GFS has broken everything down and ploughed the Atlantic through.

[ICE COLD]

Day 10 and what a run from the ECM . Lovely clean run 

[That ECM]

Please be aware. If anybody gets a link to the GSS please don’t open it. It’s A link to the GSS

Edited December 16, 2021 by That ECM

[Notty]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Snow showers xmas day pick your white christmas location bookies.

The bookies have already slashed the odds on a White Christmas since yesterday …

Edited December 16, 2021 by Notty
Grammar

[mulzy]

ECM Det in FI (days 6 to 10) is fantastic.  But it is FI - we need to count this down!

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS and ECM just slightly different by day 10! ECM looks very cold and blocked. GFS has broken everything down and ploughed the Atlantic through.

Too be fair to the GFS. Its only doing what it is programmed to do.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

ECM Det in FI (days 6 to 10) is fantastic.  But it is FI - we need to count this down!

I’m hoping you aren’t going to say it’s a massive outlier in 20 minutes - I’m sure it’ll be one of the coldest though 

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Notty said:

The bookies have already slashed the odds on a White Christmas since last yesterday …

That's because some of them sneak in here listening to our expert commentary 

[supernova]

ECM stonking but we absolutely do not have cross model agreement - much still to be resolved around PV placement and slider track in particular. I’ve booked my ticket for Boomtown but won’t be boarding until at least Mon/Tues next week!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Could you imagine if this latest ECM was a new trend and upgrades would continue in the coming days,please be correct!let's see what the ensembles say.will be very important

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m hoping you aren’t going to say it’s a massive outlier in 20 minutes - I’m sure it’ll be one of the coldest though 

And with the depth of cold out East I would expect to see upgrades in those uppers nearer the time if it plays out anything like the ECM.

[nick sussex]

Did something happen whilst I was having my breakfast !

The ECM avoids a shortwave drama near Norway and delivers some nice charts over Christmas .

So now the wait begins to tonight’s outputs .

 

[sheikhy]

When i first viewed the comments on the gfs i thought it was thhat shortwave but then i viewed the damn model and it wasnt!!all my worries went out the window!!then i went and viewed the ukmo and im sorry guys as beautiful as it looks synoptically its the worst of the top 3 at 144 hours!!!its pretty simple slide that shortwave slightly further east and we looking at an ecm outcome!!slide it like ukmo we are pretty much done!!!that shortwave is huuuge for us peeps!!!!

Edited December 16, 2021 by sheikhy

[Kasim Awan]

13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Day 10 and what a run from the ECM . Lovely clean run 

This type of an evolution is now the favoured outcome.

[Polar.]

There's turkey on the garden path this morning, high risk its laced with bird flu so I won't be taking a bite just yet.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

This type of an evolution is now the favoured outcome.

I hope your right mate . For the sanity of this place lol  

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

When i first viewed the comments on the gfs i thought it was thhat shortwave but then i viewed the damn model and it wasnt!!all my worries went out the window!!then i went and viewed the ukmo and im sorry guys as beautiful as it looks synoptically its the worst of the top 3 at 144 hours!!!

That shortwave has been anxiety inducing for the past 3 days.  UKMO worries me greatly.  

[Ravelin]

As we all peel ourselves off the ceiling after looking at the ECM 0Z, I'm not convinced that the GFS is all that bad overall, if you look at it as a whole and not just the OP. 

850s for my location in NE Scotland look 'seasonal', especially if you look at them in the box plot view.