Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Kasim Awan]

GEM wants a bust, GFS control is similar

Edited December 17, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GEM wants a bust

Yeah we'd lose Xmas day snow on that run, smashed vortex moving forward tho

[Lukesluckybunch]

the mean still looking very good,just before xmas

[Captain Shortwave]

It isn’t the shortwave that is the cause of the problem. There is a second pulse of cold air that follows it, straight from the Arctic, this is allowed to cut back westwards too early and essentially pushes west out of Scandinavia.

There is still time for this to change, but at the moment I would rather not see the ECM do the same thing.

[O'Maille80]

Bad run after bad run this morning it has to be said. Just when it looked like things were going our way. Hopefully just a few rogue runs grouped together but that might be wishful thinking.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

Bad run after bad run this morning it has to be said. Just when it looked like things were going our way. Hopefully just a few rogue runs grouped together but that might be wishful thinking.

the gfs is still a very cold run though?

[SLEETY]

On 17/12/2021 at 04:31, John88B said:

Is it my imagination but the morning runs never seem as good as the evening runs, from a cold lovers perspective, so hopefully later things will be looking a bit brighter and snowier! 

Yes the 00z runs always seem to be poor compared to the later run, I can guarantee the 12z runs will be better. Maybe. Ecm will buck the trend and give us a good midnight run like yesterday. 

I also think the low is being modelled way to far north, watch the following runs sink it south and we end up in a bitter NE wind 

Edited December 17, 2021 by SLEETY

[O'Maille80]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

the gfs is still a very cold run though?

It would be wrong to call that a bad run I suppose but ICON, GEM and more importantly UKMO were not good.

[LetItSnow!]

33 minutes ago, Daniel said:

It's called variation of the theme. The moaning in here whenever we get a slightly different run is ridiculous it miss leads the people in here who are here to learn. The latest gfs dosen't take much longer than 18z to get the bitter cold air in. It just does it in a slightly different way. We have a good Greenland high let's calm down and have some patience!

I agree with you. The moaning actually discourages me from looking at model output sometimes. Also, some may disagree with me on this but if it meant a (relatively) mild and wet Christmas Day to get  a more sustained cold spell into January I'd actually much rather that. I know it's festive and all that but it's one day of the winter. Better to have the good stuff at the most drab time of year! Not worried about output this morning one bit tbh. Let's get closer first.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, O'Maille80 said:

It would be wrong to call that a bad run I suppose but ICON, GEM and more importantly UKMO were not good.

i personally didnt think the UKMO was too bad.

[O'Maille80]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

i personally didnt think the UKMO was too bad.

I'm just going by what the experts are saying. I thought it looked ok when I first saw it but I can't read the maps like the more experienced posters and if they say it was bad I will always bow to their superior knowledge.

[PiscesStar]

2 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

I'm just going by what the experts are saying. I thought it looked ok when I first saw it but I can't read the maps like the more experienced posters and if they say it was bad I will always bow to their superior knowledge.

LET'S be realistic about it.. Its a fantastic position we find ourselves in... Pointless getting carried away with one run.... Think the next set will show an improvement again and as others have said its one day... Much better to get the jigsaw. Pieces in place so that the bigger picture means a sustained and eventful cold Spell hopefully.... 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

This situation we are in is a very rare event. Throwing toys on a few different model runs doesn't do any good for anyone or our sanity. The big picture for us coldies is very very good in my eyes and I don't expect every run to be perfect from now until Xmas day. Expect more twists and turns but relax and enjoy the experience of seeing it countdown if it does. Things can be learnt by taking a step back sometimes. Plus if you can't stand the heat get out of the forum. Ha ha ha ha peace to all and all whow seek it. Roll on the ecmwf (I'm addicted) 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

8 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

LET'S be realistic about it.. Its a fantastic position we find ourselves in... Pointless getting carried away with one run.... Think the next set will show an improvement again and as others have said its one day... Much better to get the jigsaw. Pieces in place so that the bigger picture means a sustained and eventful cold Spell hopefully.... 

Very well put. 

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

I think the ukmo be a push back of cold, the high would slowly drift back south, 

GFS looks very nice at 144, very robust block

I cannot see HP moving back outh as LP tries to push in from the swest.Wintry showers moves in from the North Sea Wednesday Thursday Friday 

Edited December 17, 2021 by keithlucky

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

A very crucial 48-72 hours coming up. Every run up to a cold spell always has its moments of madness. Last year was an example, as was 2018 and 2013!! We need to see if this juicy high currently sat over us retrogrades successfully up to Greenland, and keep the lower heights out to the Azores maintained. We need minimal interaction with little short waves both to the North and South to maintain a clean feed of cold air into the UK. Every run will have different outcomes post 72-90 hours out. 

[Weather-history]

It has a  touch of a December 1978 look to it and the run up to that Christmas. 

 

[Snowman.]

Yikes the UKMO hasn’t been great recently but that takes the cake. GFS is alright little too far north for my liking. 
 

Frustratingly close as we need a shift of about 250 miles south m. Really isn’t much to ask for but it’s all to play for. 

[Dave Kightley]

Mogreps very 50 /50 such big spread for London later next week.. the winner is the beast hopefully

[Dave Kightley]

If the first low is rubbish then once clears it should be better as gfs suggests do not end of the world if it messes up first time I don’t think 

[LetItSnow!]

21 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

It has a  touch of a December 1978 look to it and the run up to that Christmas. 

 

If models threads had existed then I can imagine the amount of hair tearing there would have been and winter is over posts  I actually posted a comment on GavsWeatherVids a little while ago highlighting the uncanny simalarities this December, as well as the whole year has had to 1978. If you were watching his winter updates last year then you know how much it was emphasised how many things were aligning closely to 1978 in the analogues. That similarity has continued throughout the spring, less so in the summer, then even more so in autumn. Even the very mild November with a cold northerly snap in November. This December has also been similar up 'til recently with southerly tracking low pressure systems bringing lots of cold rain. To see this potential easterly that once again is similar to 1978 is fascinating. I'm not one for pattern matching all of the time, and I'm not suggesting that all of that means it will def. come off or a very cold January will def. occur in January 2022, but you can't deny the interesting similarities. Hope that's not too off topic. Thought it was interesting to add.

[mulzy]

Trending the wrong way guys.  Need a decent ECM.  Another problem that the eps picked up last night is not enough eastward progression of the southerly tracking lows - heights are beginning to rise over south east Europe resulting in lows stalling.  Let's hope that this trend reverses.  Meanwhile eyes down for the ECM.

[Malarky]

Entertaining read catching up on both the pub run and 00z in one go.

Some folks are so emotional over a single run! Never invest in stocks is all I’ll say

[Met4Cast]

HUGE shift towards cold from the entire ensemble suite.. is this really what some are calling dire? lmao

The coldest ensemble suite yet!! When I read some of the comments I assumed we were looking at mild raging south-westerlies, fantastic run!

Perhaps a slight shift towards the Atlantic low and the N Sea low phasing over the UK which initially might delay the coldest air ever so slightly, but this looks like a very snowy run to me, the UKMO isn't that much different.

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Met4Cast

[Guest]

Twice in a row the GFS control has gone off on one, but the cold clusters on the ensembles have gotten better/more plentiful as well. Two very good operationals as well.

Even though the GFS is great for here, on a more national picture let's hope the UKMO and GEM correct south in the days ahead. We'll see what the ECM brings I guess  

Edited December 17, 2021 by Steel City Skies