Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Cold Winter Night]

As we approach the 12z output, all eyes will be at the strength of the High near East Greenland/Iceland first and then the behaviour of the Norwegian Low. This is 72h-120h out.

Then the focus will be on the interaction between the Atlantic sliding in and the Eastern European trough coming in from the West.
Will they meet more to the North or more to the South? 120h-168h.

After that we'll have to watch what is modelled in the whole Arctic region. The presence, strength and location of heights up North should be our backup in case Christmas won't be as cold and snowy as hoped.

Remember: FI begins as close as 96h-120h. Expect big swings again.
If you're easily swayed emotionally, it's perhaps best to expect a huge downgrade, so any output will feel better than expected

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

thinking these afternoon 12z runs are very important,as the timeframe draws in ever closer.see how things go between 120-160h and get the building blocks in the right places.

Yeah I think we need to hold as we were or see an improvement, any further back track then I can’t see us getting back to the cold charts we had yesterday !!  
 

We may still get some cold/wintery precip, but I think most of us want a snowy Xmas period or at least a prolonged big freeze starting around Xmas day!! 
 

Im not that confident at this time, mainly because we are generally unlucky on our little island!!

[snowking]

On 17/12/2021 at 14:59, AFCBSNOW said:

what's the order of play for the 12z's?

~15.15 Icon rolls out, doesn't show what any coldie wants it to, gets disregarded as cannon fodder

~16.00 GFS & UKMO rolls out, GFS op shows a full blown Easterly, is declared the "Greatest Forecast System" ever assembled, cold spell declared, Daily Express starts preparing the Caps Lock key for a battering. UKMO not on board but rightfully ignored.

~16.45 GFS ensembles are analysed, nobody as a clue what is going on

~17.00 Jules finds 4 bad ensemble members, has a moan

~18.00 ECM starts to roll out, everyone looks to Sheiky for a "steady as she goes at T+0" post

~18.45 ECM sits somewhere in the middle of the envelope

~20.00 Everyone asks Bluearmy and Mulzy what the clusters are showing

~20.15 One of them dashes all of our dreams as the clusters prove inconclusive

~22.00 GFS 18z rolls out, is completely different to 12z

~04.00 the overnight crew takes over, are usually downbeat.

Rinse, repeat.

Edited December 17, 2021 by snowking

[Battleground Snow]

Icon falling inline with the other models, a good start to the 12z runs

Hey @snowking I'm a neutral overnight poster

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Ali1977]

I’ll start.

ICON, big shift south with the trough to the west at T114, shortwave not as prominent , block further North !! All good things I reckon 

[Frosty.]

Merry Christmas from the Gfs 6z operational, I must tell you that both Santa and Rudolph  are very happy indeed…anyway, enough with the frivolity already.. …hats off to you guys, sooo dedicated…dedication’s what you need, if you want to be the best, if you want to beat the rest..dedication’s what you need..if you want to be a record breaker… ..please excuse me, I just had a Roy Castle moment there!  

Edited December 17, 2021 by jon snow

[Ali1977]

Regardless what the icon ends up like , that’s a considerably better chart at 132 compared to earlier . Now it’s not the best model but does this mean the signal is there do we think??? It’s getting the info from somewhere

Edited December 17, 2021 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

Right 13 mins and 30 secs to go to the 12zs!!i predict the ukmo shall continue being an idiot!!gfs needs to continue on from the 06z!!!!

[chicken soup]

13 minutes ago, snowking said:

~15.15 Icon rolls out, doesn't show what any coldie wants it to, gets disregarded as cannon fodder

~16.00 GFS & UKMO rolls out, GFS op shows a full blown Easterly, is declared the "Greatest Forecast System" ever assembled, cold spell declared, Daily Express starts preparing the Caps Lock key for a battering. UKMO not on board but rightfully ignored.

~16.45 GFS ensembles are analysed, nobody as a clue what is going on

~17.00 Jules finds 4 bad ensemble members, has a moan

~18.00 ECM starts to roll out, everyone looks to Sheiky for a "steady as she goes at T+0" post

~18.45 ECM sits somewhere in the middle of the envelope

~20.00 Everyone asks Bluearmy and Mulzy what the clusters are showing

~20.15 One of them dashes all of our dreams as the clusters prove inconclusive

~22.00 GFS 18z rolls out, is completely different to 12z

~04.00 the overnight crew takes over, are usually downbeat.

Rinse, repeat.

Lol..I reckon this will be very close to what actually happens next few hours in here.

[Day 10]

16 minutes ago, snowking said:

~15.15 Icon rolls out, doesn't show what any coldie wants it to, gets disregarded as cannon fodder

~16.00 GFS & UKMO rolls out, GFS op shows a full blown Easterly, is declared the "Greatest Forecast System" ever assembled, cold spell declared, Daily Express starts preparing the Caps Lock key for a battering. UKMO not on board but rightfully ignored.

~16.45 GFS ensembles are analysed, nobody as a clue what is going on

~17.00 Jules finds 4 bad ensemble members, has a moan

~18.00 ECM starts to roll out, everyone looks to Sheiky for a "steady as she goes at T+0" post

~18.45 ECM sits somewhere in the middle of the envelope

~20.00 Everyone asks Bluearmy and Mulzy what the clusters are showing

~20.15 One of them dashes all of our dreams as the clusters prove inconclusive

~22.00 GFS 18z rolls out, is completely different to 12z

~04.00 the overnight crew takes over, are usually downbeat.

Rinse, repeat.

[Mike Poole]

Poor run from ICON at T168 unless you’re Scottish.

What you expect from a cannon fodder model, in all honesty.

Edited December 17, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Malarky]

While we wait, the latest output from the NWEFS.

Netweather Emotional Forecast System

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Poor run from ICON at T128 unless you’re Scottish.

What you expect from a cannon fodder model, in all honesty.

Cold too far north. Not what we want - cannon fodder.

[sheikhy]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Poor run from ICON at T128 unless you’re Scottish.

What you expect from a cannon fodder model, in all honesty.

That is bad really bad!!!!yeh the synoptics of it look beautiful but at ground level that is defo a no no!!!!

[TSNWK]

its showtime..

[Ali1977]

 

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Poor run from ICON at T168 unless you’re Scottish.

What you expect from a cannon fodder model, in all honesty.

But much much better than earlier , that’s a trend that should show on other models - ICONs picking up a signal of a bigger block from somewhere, it just hasn’t a clue what to do with it

Edited December 17, 2021 by Ali1977

[Kentspur]

Just now, sheikhy said:

That is bad really bad!!!!yeh the synoptics of it look beautiful but at ground level that is defo a no no!!!!

Ouch Hope Icon isn't the trend setter this arvo 

[Met4Cast]

ICON isn’t too far from the ECM, it phases the lows over the UK & then doesn’t have strong enough blocking to shift them southwards. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

ICON wasnt too bad,was getting there finally at the end

[TSNWK]

On 17/12/2021 at 15:29, Ali1977 said:

 

But much much better than earlier , that’s a trend that should show on other models - ICONs picking up a signal of a bigger block from somewhere, it just hasn’t a clue what to do with it

Really.. it was worse this morning?

[swfc]

22 minutes ago, snowking said:

~15.15 Icon rolls out, doesn't show what any coldie wants it to, gets disregarded as cannon fodder

~16.00 GFS & UKMO rolls out, GFS op shows a full blown Easterly, is declared the "Greatest Forecast System" ever assembled, cold spell declared, Daily Express starts preparing the Caps Lock key for a battering. UKMO not on board but rightfully ignored.

~16.45 GFS ensembles are analysed, nobody as a clue what is going on

~17.00 Jules finds 4 bad ensemble members, has a moan

~18.00 ECM starts to roll out, everyone looks to Sheiky for a "steady as she goes at T+0" post

~18.45 ECM sits somewhere in the middle of the envelope

~20.00 Everyone asks Bluearmy and Mulzy what the clusters are showing

~20.15 One of them dashes all of our dreams as the clusters prove inconclusive

~22.00 GFS 18z rolls out, is completely different to 12z

~04.00 the overnight crew takes over, are usually downbeat.

Rinse, repeat.

You must be psychic snowing, it's started and that's one of listThis so called correction south is on a dodgy wicket but many runs to go over the coming days

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Really.. it was worse this morning?

Much worse , earlier on anyway!! 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ICON wasnt too bad,was getting there finally at the end

We dont want any "getting there" anymore!!we need more "we are there at 120 hours"now!!lol!!!my coldians deserve better from the weather gods!!!

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Really.. it was worse this morning?

I think @Ali1977  meant earlier in the run as the whole pattern was further south, so it was an improvement.

[Uncertainty]

12z Arpege lowers heights over Iberia - that would slide if it went on. Cold air already moving in.

This is absolutely on the edge. 
 

Icon is at least further south and stronger with the greenly heights.

A good start I’d say. An improvement from the UKMO and especially the GEM and the game is very much ‘on’…