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Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

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Eastern Scotland WX Rising Star

Eastern Scotland WX

Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH I'd prefer things to move south for a few reasons, we've had a snow day here ,as have many up north.

It's only fair those yet to have snow get a good dollops. 

Barely have had any snow where i am this winter , only have seen a light covering of snowfall here ( 0.5cm ) 

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Beanz Rising Star

Beanz

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
Posted

The underlying reason for the movement north is the real concern, our friend in Greenland is packing up and heading home for Christmas by the looks of it.   He does it every year! 

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yamkin Experienced

yamkin

Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
Posted

We will start to know from Monday how the models will pan out in my opinion ❄❄❄

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Eastern Scotland WX Rising Star

Eastern Scotland WX

Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH I'd prefer things to move south for a few reasons, we've had a snow day here ,as have many up north.

It's only fair those yet to have snow get a good dollops. 

Barely have had any snow where i am this winter , only have seen a light covering of snowfall here ( 0.5cm ) 

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

EPS ensemble for De Bilt, Holland is colder again before Christmas, with less spread, and slightly colder during Christmas, with a bit more spread.

17dec12EPS-ENS.thumb.png.22a344f3eef32bdf16d30a31e07652b3.png

 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH I'd prefer things to move south for a few reasons, we've had a snow day here ,as have many up north.

It's only fair those yet to have snow get a good dollops. 

Oh stop it nw you'll have us in tears tbh we had 2 good falls plus the southern correction generally would lengthen the cold spell

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

So am I right in saying that it's between...

GFS op and ensembles, ECM op and its ensembles - on the less cold/warmer side for the festive weekend

GEM, MOGREPS and UKMO (and the latest UKMO forecast too) - on the colder side for the festive weekend

 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Very very good ecm mean!!!!looks further south and more slidey!!

Can you post the 10 day 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Can you post the 10 day 

Actually when I look at this chart, I can see why the monthly update from Exeter today was an upgrade. 

EDH1-240.gif

Edited by blizzard81
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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, LRD said:

So am I right in saying that it's between...

GFS op and ensembles, ECM op and its ensembles - on the less cold/warmer side for the festive weekend

GEM, MOGREPS and UKMO (and the latest UKMO forecast too) - on the colder side for the festive weekend

 

Gfs ens are closer to gem / ukmo.

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Uncertainty Accomplished

Uncertainty

Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.gif.abd764eb1ecc35e9382b9d0889672c4c.gif
U.K. = Still In the game.
 

I know the feeling when the hope collapses and you know it’s ‘done’ and I just haven’t got that yet. Moreover, it looks like somewhere in the U.K. is getting a heavy band of snow on Christmas Eve. ECM had it, at Amber warning intensity, right over me (N Cumbria) and 4-5 million others in N England and S Scotland and no, @northwestsnowI wouldn’t trade it with the south! (and neither would you!) Though I’d rather they had it than the sea south of Iceland!

Edited by Uncertainy
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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Yay posting a 12z this time...

What is a concern is that yet again temps nosedive around the day 9/10 but will go with it for now.

spacer.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Yay posting a 12z this time...

What is a concern is that yet again temps nosedive around the day 9/10 but will go with it for now.

spacer.png

It's an outlier 24/25 Dec which puts a lot of people in the game for a Dickens Blizzard !! 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

It's an outlier 24/25 Dec which puts a lot of people in the game for a Dickens Blizzard !! 

Man I never knew that brown faced antique guy had a blizzard named after him

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

The postage stamps are going to be more useful than the mean given the huge number of options. 

That low could track anywhere from Iberia to Scotland.. so, goodluck making a forecast based on that. Interestingly there's quite a few UKMO looking runs in there.

 20211217195816-ef1724815eb2d8f1ecfb625aa40ac81bd2e4dacb.thumb.png.559320850f46738e935fedafa0d18f1c.png

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's an outlier 24/25 Dec which puts a lot of people in the game for a Dickens Blizzard !! 

LOL, like your hair splitting!

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

It's an outlier 24/25 Dec which puts a lot of people in the game for a Dickens Blizzard !! 

Was just thinking the same mate. I temper that though with the fact that the operational run is run at higher resolution. 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH I'd prefer things to move south for a few reasons, we've had a snow day here ,as have many up north.

It's only fair those yet to have snow get a good dollops. 

A gentleman as always NWS

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH I'd prefer things to move south for a few reasons, we've had a snow day here ,as have many up north.

It's only fair those yet to have snow get a good dollops. 

A true Northerner. When we say Levelling up (down) we mean it.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The postage stamps are going to be more useful than the mean given the huge number of options. 

That low could track anywhere from Iberia to Scotland.. so, goodluck making a forecast based on that. Interestingly there's quite a few UKMO looking runs in there.

 20211217195816-ef1724815eb2d8f1ecfb625aa40ac81bd2e4dacb.thumb.png.559320850f46738e935fedafa0d18f1c.png

Looking at those the south is looking as much , if not more primed for snow than the north - and Im not saying that cos I live there. Interesting  

Edited by Ali1977
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