Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Paul]

For those who didn't see it yesterday, @Nick F's latest blog is well worth a read - particularly if you want to understand more about the MJO, the part it plays and the prospects for cold this Xmas.

Blocking high pressure for now, but could there be a white Christmas?

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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A blocking area of high pressure will be with us through into early next week, but it looks to turn increasingly unsettled as we head into the Christmas Weekend. With cold air not far away though, we could see some...

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I think it’s too early to say in all honesty .

The morning trends have been encouraging though. 

 i think its a good thing that we still have a few days yet.meaning if it was tuesday or wednesday it would be set in stone,but there is still chance for some improvements!

[minus10]

Late to the party but what a run from gfs6z. Seemingly reinforcing cold from ne with reasonable greenland block in place. I know at the bottom end of the ensembles but not an outlier....this story aint over yet me thinks....

New years day interest...

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

does this JMA run go all the way?

No thats the furthest the 6z goes to my knowledge.

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Absolutely stunning 06z. Possible Nor’easter style low waiting to happen into FI from Iberia, and a true proper Greeny high! Doesn't get much better! Loads of little disturbances cropping up once the pattern is locked in. This is the stellar run. 

Totally agree - how people can complain at this run I can't understand, it's one of the best model runs I've ever seen! 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

Totally agree - how people can complain at this run I can't understand, it's one of the best model runs I've ever seen! 

Don't you be bloody jinxing things Paul

[Cold Winter Night]

At 120h, I can certainly live with these two most reliable Op runs, ECM and UKMO:

The Norwegian Problem seems less of an issue run by run.
It's good to see consistent improvements in the reliable, Christmas is not inside that lead time yet, so no need for panic (Well, even if Christmas and the rest of winter turns out to be horrible, there is still no need for panic. Panic never helps, does it? )

The EPS regime chart lets us move into NAO- (Greenland High), there is no doubt about that. Compared to yesterday, it does not continue into Negative blocking (Scandinavian trough) as enthusiastically anymore, stalling in the NAO- section. New height rises, or perhaps I should say, less reduction of heights to our North/Northwest could be the reason behind that slowing down.

EPS in general has a tremendous spread already from day 5 onward. Many cold and mild options. Confidence in any outcome should be very low at this moment, but the massive height rises in higher latitudes that we keep seeing in ext clusters should give coldies hope that we may properly benefit sometime in the next few weeks. If not at Christmas, then maybe later on.

EPS plume for De Bilt shows this spread.

Just for fun: There is one member that goes for a 2m minimum of -20c and a maximum of -10 on the 29th.
Is that possible? Yes, otherwise it would not have shown up. In early February 2012, reality turned out to be even colder than the entire ensemble at that lead time had it. Who knows?

So, synoptically (big picture setup), the upcoming period is very exciting.
When it comes to actual experienced weather, we will have to wait and see. Neither excitement nor despair are justified atm.

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

At 120h, I can certainly live with these two most reliable Op runs, ECM and UKMO:

The Norwegian Problem seems less of an issue run by run.
It's good to see consistent improvements in the reliable, Christmas is not inside that lead time yet, so no need for panic (Well, even if Christmas and the rest of winter turns out to be horrible, there is still no need for panic. Panic never helps, does it? )

The EPS regime chart lets us move into NAO- (Greenland High), there is no doubt about that. Compared to yesterday, it does not continue into Negative blocking (Scandinavian trough) as enthusiastically anymore, stalling in the NAO- section. New height rises, or perhaps I should say, less reduction of heights to our North/Northwest could be the reason behind that slowing down.

EPS in general has a tremendous spread already from day 5 onward. Many cold and mild options. Confidence in any outcome should be very low at this moment, but the massive height rises in higher latitudes that we keep seeing in ext clusters should give coldies hope that we may properly benefit sometime in the next few weeks. If not at Christmas, then maybe later on.

EPS plume for De Bilt shows this spread.

Just for fun: There is one member that goes for a 2m minimum of -20c and a maximum of -10 on the 29th.
Is that possible? Yes, otherwise it would not have shown up. In early February 2012, reality turned out to be even colder than the entire ensemble at that lead time had it. Who knows?

So, synoptically (big picture setup), the upcoming period is very exciting.
When it comes to actual experienced weather, we will have to wait and see. Neither excitement nor despair are justified atm.

Great Post. Thoughtfull, informative and useful, thanks oh and know hyperventilating  

Edited December 18, 2021 by swfc

[Cold Winter Night]

9 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Totally agree - how people can complain at this run I can't understand, it's one of the best model runs I've ever seen! 

Exactly, who would say no to this outcome in January? Only snow lovers in Tours, France, I think .

[nick sussex]

18 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

And there be the point... Where be higher risk areas... Im saying the whole lot ends up in the channel and northern France and we are in a cold slack airmass with little features popping up... 

Cold wise there’s more margin for error the further north you are . We’ve seen in the past lows end up doing what you mentioned . It wouldn’t be a big shock. 

[Jason M]

48 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Thank you..  p1 or 11 please sub zero Max’s top to bottom.. all have Scotland in the cold air and there some shocker with 13c as max in south..

Yep, just looking through them as best I can and the message seems to be 'computer says no' for the south & SE. South midlands northwards your in the game though. They are just a snapshot for 6am in the morning so don't tell us too much.

[bluearmy]

Just been asked what the weather will be like for Xmas ………

told her it could be anything from balmy sou’wester’s to wet and windy to frosty and clear to 6” of snow ………

she thinks I’m useless anyway …..

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Just been asked what the weather will be like for Xmas ………

told her it could be anything from balmy sou’wester’s to wet and windy to frosty and clear to 6” of snow ………

she thinks I’m useless anyway …..

LOL.

I'm leaning back to cold up here Blue.

But at this range a swing of 100 miles changes everything...

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just been asked what the weather will be like for Xmas ………

told her it could be anything from balmy sou’wester’s to wet and windy to frosty and clear to 6” of snow ………

she thinks I’m useless anyway …..

Behave, you definitely would have used the word envelope.

[Eagle Eye]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just been asked what the weather will be like for Xmas ………

told her it could be anything from balmy sou’wester’s to wet and windy to frosty and clear to 6” of snow ………

she thinks I’m useless anyway …..

My friend says her mother thinks the same, they'll believe us when the BBC says it, now nicknamed the the BBF (British Bad Forecasters)

Edited December 18, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[Notty]

41 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hello , Hello , Hello . What do we have here then !!! 

Loving the JMA 

Perfect (IMBY)

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Can I ask a favour. I can't find the icon on metiociel home screen. Since my stroke my cognitive stuff is alover the shop. Could some screenshot it please. Also at asl what is the drop in 850s if anyone can show, tia

 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Behave, you definitely would have used the word envelope.

Too technical ……….

[TSNWK]

16 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

La Manche low being mentioned by TWO this is what it would do with its current position, a lot of change to come though 

That's for 28th.. if we are lucky I would hope to see something similar for 24th / 25th..

[Mark Smithy]

Fabulous 6z run. 

I still reckon the models are being too progressive, that this cold block is going to win the battle comfortably and that we may see an intensifying of the cold uppers but also, possibly, at the same time a drier stranglehold. Those fronts coming in from the west are not going to make it very far in my humble estimation. At some point Kent and Essex will really cop it.

Cold will win and embed for at least a week or two.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mark Smithy said:

Fabulous 6z run. 

I still reckon the models are being too progressive, that this cold block is going to win the battle comfortably and that we may see an intensifying of the cold uppers but also, possibly, at the same time a drier stranglehold. Those fronts coming in from the west are not going to make it very far in my humble estimation. At some point Kent and Essex will really cop it.

Cold will win and embed for at least a week or two.

Well we are all hoping.

So close to something tremendous ..

( if you like cold weather)

[Chris Smith]

Hmm. Just been thinking. Prolonged cold spell + massive Omicron wave = Abject misery. Maybe.

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Chris Smith

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, Chris Smith said:

Hmm. Just been thinking. Prolonged cold spell + massive Omicron wave = Abject misery. Maybe.

 

The government is fully behind the GFS 06 hrs run as it could stop households mixing ! Snow induced lockdown !

[Mark Smithy]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well we are all hoping.

So close to something tremendous ..

( if you like cold weather)

Yeah maybe not so tremendous given the sitn in the country I guess.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Mark Smithy

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The government is fully behind the GFS 06 hrs run as it could stop households mixing ! Snow induced lockdown !

Definitely- bozza watching the 6z unfold....