Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[markw2680]

There’s a lot more high pressure to the south today unfortunately and I think that is a big problem and unless that gets shunted away or weaker then I think anywhere away from the north will not see any of the white stuff at Christmas 

[Mythic Cold]

And there were a couple of posts saying this was 95% nailed on a few days ago lol

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO looking odd one out unfortunately, the risk of a wet Xmas has increased somewhat today.  

Let the run run matey

[Guest]

ECM 120 not too dissimilar to the UKMO, though it's a 100-ish miles further north with the cold air. Still you'd favour Mids northwards for snow potential at t144.

edit: t144 fails to bring the cold further south, with only Scotland favoured for snow. As CS says, the fading of heights to the NW so suddenly is a real puzzler. It was a lot different 24 hours ago!

Edited December 19, 2021 by Steel City Skies

[Valleyboy]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO looking odd one out unfortunately but not a lot in it, the risk of a wet Xmas has increased somewhat today.  

Not a done deal.  Hold on to your horses.

[Staffmoorlands]

Time to say goodbye to the chance of Christmas Day snow for those south of Sheffield. Gutted but maybe some wintry options after Christmas.

 

[weathercold]

Fair play to GFS, looks like it’s called this excellently. Many of us champion UKMO and ECM…this is one great feat for the often underestimated GFS.

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Oh dear..

[MJB]

Control develops into something tasty very very late on

[MildCarlilse]

I will always refer to John and Mushy with regard to forecasts.And why? Well kids,it’s time to grow up and measure yourselves against the reality of the reliable.

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 5 vs yesterdays day 6

   

I think the key difference is really the substantial reduction in heights to the north west. I don't even know what you would call it, it isn't a phantom high because the high is there at quite substantial strength, but it then tends to fade to a degree in situ. It is hard to really grasp on where things are going because you could easily start to call time, only for a wedge of heights to remain around Iceland that might give the snowy conditions people want. 

The consistency is very poor, but we need to see where the shift lands overall and not be taken in by runs at the moment too much. The same is true for any that look good as well.

[mulzy]

ECM poor.  Hopefully it’s on the mild side of the envelop.

[Daniel*]

 

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Let the run run matey

I think it was clear to see.

Scotland in game but most out of it, I still think this has some room for manoeuvre but time is narrowing. Saving Xmas might be too much of an ask now.

Day 6 00z v 12z 

Edited December 19, 2021 by Daniel*

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Oh dear..

?

[Sweatyman]

Think we all know what the 18z will be like later??....lol

[Guest]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Fair play to GFS, looks like it’s called this excellently. Many of us champion UKMO and ECM…this is one great feat for the often underestimated GFS.

Nothing has verified yet, my friend  No time for congratulations until this has fully played out. We're still looking at t144 for Christmas at the mo, which is well into FI given the synoptics.

[MJB]

At 120 it looks half decent just push SSE a bit more pleaseeeeee

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Posters congratulating the GFS on getting the Christmas forecast correct when the big day is still 6 days away and writing the whole of December off for cold!

This forum is bonkers! 

 

[Midlander]

Well, that was an exhilarating cold chase, but the game has ended for me. 
I certainly will not forget the blizzard across Central England that was shown on yesterday GFS18Z; that was something special to see.
I now look ahead to the stratosphere and hope an SSW can redeem this lost chance.

Edited December 19, 2021 by Midlander

[swfc]

Look at the nhp at 144 hrs on the ec 12z  and look at  the 6z  ec at  168 hrs. Should show you whats going on synoptically and the fluidity atm

Edited December 19, 2021 by swfc

[blizzard81]

We just seem incapable of clinching the deal these days. Incredible. 

[Polar.]

6 minutes ago, Mythic Cold said:

And there were a couple of posts saying this was 95% nailed on a few days ago lol

The worst is saying to bin a run because it didn't play ball.

[Winter Hill]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

There’s a lot more high pressure to the south today unfortunately and I think that is a big problem and unless that gets shunted away or weaker then I think anywhere away from the north will not see any of the white stuff at Christmas 

Spot on. It’s been on the cards for the last few days.. unless we can get shot of these heights to the south, it’s pretty much game over… the low is just going to barrel through us and not slide 

[Bullseye]

And just a reminder on the ECM weeklies from Thursday (three days ago!)...

 

 

Edited December 19, 2021 by Bullseye

[tight isobar]

Ukmo very much out in its own now!! If it’s had things correct it’s pulled off a MASSIVE achievement!

Edited December 19, 2021 by tight isobar