Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[keithlucky]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Three weeks ago, I 'advised' my daughter that there was the potential for cold easterly winds around Xmas. Recommendations for a Knighthood greatly appreciated!

After that, I further postulated that New Year might be the best time for snow. Oh dear, thank you, GFS!

      

Has mystic meg returned?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Wow, just catching up!! How on earth has this cold came back to life

The writing was on the wall mate...we all remained calm when the met wasnt onboard...and when they came aboard we all jumped! When will we ever learn!

Edited December 20, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Perhaps I was daft to say game over this morning with the Ecm and UKMO both being poor. Please let's have a good ecm tonight for complete model agreement which we have seriously lacked in the build up to this potential cold snap. Unprecedented model divergence. But for now atleast; the game is back on! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 minute ago, Snowboy111 said:

Yeah we’ll spare a thought for us in the Channel Islands. I know you’ve not forgiven us since we stole your ‘channel slider’ back in March 2013 but cut us some slack please !! I’m so praying that low cuts lower ! I think you guys would lose the plot !

One heck of an event that was! Absolute pasting you lot got down there. I was in Portsmouth on that day and it was like caster sugar blowing in one of the most coldest winds I’ve ever experienced, with exception to the BFTE. A day I’ll never forget. Hope we see similar this winter. 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Lord Baltimore said:

The way it's changing today on the models I can see the front just clipping the south west with a bit of snow on the moors and rain in the muff. Everywhere else very cold but mainly dry.

Chart!

[Georgina]

2 minutes ago, Lord Baltimore said:

Plymuff

Muffborough

[Singularity]

I’ll remember this as the ‘two lows or one?’ saga. This is key with the ECM 12z: It has to have two lows not one. Then we can at least consider narrowing the uncertainty to just how far south the polar front will lie this weekend!

If it still goes with one low, I honestly don’t know what we could conclude aside from this becoming the most ridiculous of all sagas (at least that I can recall in the past decade).

[mushymanrob]

2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Perhaps I was daft to say game over this morning with the Ecm and UKMO both being poor.

Learn from it m8...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Perhaps I was daft to say game over this morning with the Ecm and UKMO both being poor. Please let's have a good ecm tonight for complete model agreement which we have seriously lacked in the build up to this potential cold snap. Unprecedented model divergence. But for now atleast; the game is back on! 

The only certainty in life my friend is tax and death...you can cheat one but not the other! Everything else there is  always gonna be a chance,so never say never...we will always remain in the game! And if a game ends..what next? We simply ask for a rematch and make sure we are better prepared next time.

Much more positivity around here today...thats the way ha ha ha ha I like it I like it...as the song goes.

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Georgina said:

Muffborough

Mufford 

[Sperrin]

26 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Boxing day snow on offer for parts of Wales & Midlands..

Those "game over" posts were a bit premature? There's too much volatility to rule out anything yet. 

 

I know brexit stuck the border down the Irish Sea but can I ask a wee favour and could some of you more knowledgeable folks give an odd assessment of Ireland (I'm up north) in your pearls of wisdom

[Bricriu]

22 hours ago, draztik said:

Time and time again, the GFS is routinely binned for showing Synoptics that look ‘suspect’… however, we have all been here before. It’s the golden rule of model viewing.. esp w/ regards to the GFS. Once it picks up a trend, and builds on it with each successive run… you know something is afoot. Hopefully next time when it does this again, it won’t be so unceremoniously  binned. However, I won’t hold my breath! 

A huge ECM to come. Surely if it backs the GFS there won't be another cruel twist to this story in the morning.  If there is then the Models are clearly trolling us. Christmas night snow into St Stephens Day/ Boxing day would be simply brilliant.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

9 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Now this is more like it...

 Both the GEM and GFS control now splitting the low pressure just to the South West.

 

I think the split low will -

1) Create more precipitation

2) Pull the cold air further back from the N East in time for the second of the smaller lows moving in...

MIA.

Now we are really talking.

And now I see the UKMO at Day 6 has now split the small local low into 2 parts as well..

If we get this it will string out the boundary of the cold and warmer air creating more snowfall on the boundary edge.

I can see the snowfall developing somewhere that will get 36 hours of snow now..

Where ?  That is the question, - but somewhere south of the Humber to  Mersey Line is my guess.

MIA

 

 

[Floatylight]

11 minutes ago, swfc said:

It could change in 24 hours you do realise that? Keep your powder dry it was prozac yesterday, its addictive

I relise that.

Others don't....

What you asking me for?

[Malcolm Edwards]

[Lincstim]

1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Where ?  That is the question, - but somewhere south of the Humber to  Mersey Line is my guess.

MIA

 

 

South of the Humber? 

Please be Scunny 

PLEASE BE SCUNNY   

[supernova]

GEM says a bit nippy for Boxing Day but boundary and detail still a moving feast obvs.

Edited December 20, 2021 by supernova

[Updated_Weather]

I think instead of congratulating any model for calling any of this because they’ve been all over the place!

the credit goes to @Kasim Awanfor sticking his neck out when people were against his opinion, but he stayed with it and look what’s happening! 
great set of runs guys.. here is hoping ECM follows and we can all relax! Until 18z later for the finale

[Uncertainty]

On 19/12/2021 at 11:06, Uncertainy said:

Note the 6z JMA also sends the first low under the block comfortably and with a stronger block than the 0z…

Thats GEM/UKMO/ECM/JMA vs GFS

If you’re new to this… don’t throw in the towel yet. 

I didn’t throw the towel in! Though after the ECM this morning it was holding on by a thread on my pinky!

Seriously this could flip back both ways twice. But again the trend broadly today has flipped to a colder outcome from Xmas day.

There are so many tiny minutiae that make so much difference that it’s almost impossible to forecast in detail. Central U.K. still looks favoured but even that could get squeezed out if the ridge gets to strong.
 

Im now starting to become interested in what happens towards new year and personally I would like the Greenland wedge to descend well to the W of us (via the Atlantic lows disconnecting from the main trough.) There seems to be quite a lot of momentum in the Atlantic jet going forward so if the ridge collapses over or to the east of us it will simply become the next euro high. If it falls well to the west of us we might get a quick shot at a convective NErly. Right now at 240 that Atlantic low looks big and bowling ball shaped but at 240’s week ago we had an eternal U.K. high and look what happened to that.

Finally I’m fully expecting the EC46 to back down on the blocking but hopefully not a total Sign flip. More importantly I’d like to see a cluster decelerate the zonal winds significantly to give us more clues as to whether the recent musings of the GFS are gaining momentum. (Note Judah Cohen’s respectable AER model supports a weaker vortex in Jan also).

Edited December 20, 2021 by Uncertainy

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

And now I see the UKMO at Day 6 has now split the small local low into 2 parts as well..

If we get this it will string out the boundary of the cold and warmer air creating more snowfall on the boundary edge.

I can see the snowfall developing somewhere that will get 36 hours of snow now..

Where ?  That is the question, - but somewhere south of the Humber to  Mersey Line is my guess.

MIA

 

 

I agree this is viable but the channel runnner like 11th March 2013 but 80 miles north is defo poss

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I think instead of congratulating any model for calling any of this because they’ve been all over the place!

the credit goes to @Kasim Awanfor sticking his neck out when people were against his opinion, but he stayed with it and look what’s happening! 
great set of runs guys.. here is hoping ECM follows and we can all relax! Until 18z later for the finale

I will admit i was pretty much calling it a day yesterday and guess what im still calling it a day cos the ecm is gona be terrible in a while!!!!!

[Sunny76]

13 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

The only certainty in life my friend is tax and death...you can cheat one but not the other! Everything else there is  always gonna be a chance,so never say never...we will always remain in the game! And if a game ends..what next? We simply ask for a rematch and make sure we are better prepared next time.

Much more positivity around here today...thats the way ha ha ha ha I like it I like it...as the song goes.

I like the positive 'remain in the game' attitude. It will snow again eventually, like getting a decent warm sunny August will happen again, although I still think getting snow will happen before a decent August comes to pass.

And, all the best for 2022, because we will win the World Cup, and stop those cheating Italians from winning another trophy. Ok, I digressed a bit lol.

[Snowman.]

Fantastic set of runs so far. Really good to see this place buzzing again. 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I think instead of congratulating any model for calling any of this because they’ve been all over the place!

the credit goes to @Kasim Awanfor sticking his neck out when people were against his opinion, but he stayed with it and look what’s happening! 
great set of runs guys.. here is hoping ECM follows and we can all relax! Until 18z later for the finale

Agree.. there are several posters I've learned so much from and as a bonus a new language @tight isobar we are blessed.. I was someone who threw the towel in last night . And frankly speaking it's still on the floor sopping wet.. I will however pick it up to dry overnight if ECM behaves.

[Ali1977]

Everything is good, much better - but we still need the ECM. If that falls good then we may be there on the latest run the Midlands down to the M4 look good for snow