Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[ITSY]

So to sum up: the ECM has made a short-term move towards the GFS/UKMO solution but without fully towing in behind just yet, particularly when it comes to the depth of cold. That's a start for me - the GEM is pretty close to the GFS/UKMO solution too so I'll take that given that this time yesterday it looked for the world like we were heading in the other direction. 18Z for a refresh and then a behind-the-sofa glance at the midnight runs tomorrow morning. For now, positive steps towards a cold spell over xmas weekend. But it could still swing back the other way...

Quick Edit: White xmas chances, as I said this morning, look increasingly possible for northernmost and hiller residents further south into the Midlands. But it's what happens afterwards that is now the centre of attention. 

Edited December 20, 2021 by ITSY

[rwtwm]

2 minutes ago, supernova said:

Just gonna go round and pick up all the towels that were thrown in over the last couple of days….more than enough to keep everybody warm during the upcoming cold spell! Quite how cold, quite how snowy, quite how long lasting, absolutely no idea yet, and may even need all these towels to mop up the tears if the models flip again as we close in on Christmas. But favourable shifts today—as many hoped there might be. Now imagine what it was like when THAT ECM did us at 72 hrs or less a few years back. I lost count of the Booms! that got burst that year. Christmas is back on, if only temporarily and not for all, so enjoy it whilst you can. More changes to come but GEFS tell the story well….big uncertainty by Xmas Eve (96-120 hrs) and onwards). 

Only the 15 degree spread at day 6 then. Maximum spread of near 25 degrees. Sometimes I think we'll be better served throwing dice.

[Laurence]

13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm ops are having a nightmare. Woeful performance. 

Maybe the ECM is right? Don't want it to be. But......

[Sceptical]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

-24c in Scotland anyone 

It occurs.

11th Feb this year.

 

 

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Good ecm compared to this morning but apart from that its crap!!

And your point is?

[frosty ground]

13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What a climbe down from the ecm compared to the 00z!!

 

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Good ecm compared to this morning but apart from that its crap!!

It could be the middle ground solution which usually isn’t one anyone asked for.

Edited December 20, 2021 by frosty ground

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, Laurence said:

Maybe the ECM is right? Don't want it to be. But......

Well one of the runs will be - it's shown every possible scenario over the last few days. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Well what it's worth Matt Taylor BBC forecast said Christmas day will be milder in the south colder in the north, but he did say it's open to change and said other models show low pressure much more south so cold will come in quicker. Still got to go someway yet, before we know exactly probably Christmas eve

[lassie23]

We were back in the game for an entire hour

[swfc]

Well for me EC is poor. You can dress it up how you like further north or south. Even if it gives a snow day its not a great outlook after 192 hrs imo. All subject to change but the Xmas chase has a very small window of opportunity. Before anyone says fi is way earlier the nhp dosnt support atm a cold spell

[Chesil View]

Ecm is moving towards the gfs/ukmo solution. Albeit not totally yet. But in the same way that the gfs takes a couple of runs to backtrack the ecm will probably do likewise. Would not be at all surprised to wake up to  a fully fledged wintry ecm on tomorrow's 0z

[Man With Beard]

20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm ops are having a nightmare. Woeful performance. 

Fair point. The GFS definitely seems to be doing better on the big calls of late. ECM horribly inconsistent and making lots of about turns. The ECM ensemble mean far closer to the mark so far for Christmas.

[Updated_Weather]

Relax guys.

Remember ECM has been very poor of late.. why? No idea.. pattern why it’s not far off UKMO/GFS - so wouldn’t worry at all. 
as long as GFS/UKMO are in some agreement. 
keep toys in the pram! We are close!

[ANYWEATHER]

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Well for me EC is poor. You can dress it up how you like further north or south. Even if it gives a snow day its not a great outlook after 192 hrs imo. All subject to change but the Xmas chase has a very small window of opportunity. Before anyone says fi is way earlier the nhp dosnt support atm a cold spell

Why are you basing one model run on the eventual outcome ,when no one knows exactly what or where the boundary will be yet?

[Dave Kightley]

High pressure to the south is going to be the next issue.. want the amplification further west for a start.

[Phil Blake]

So 13 pages since 2pm. Have I missed anything? 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Phil Blake said:

So 13 pages since 2pm. Have I missed anything? 

Not really tbh

[Frostbite1980]

5 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

So 13 pages since 2pm. Have I missed anything? 

Read them and you will know

[johncam]

15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Good ecm compared to this morning but apart from that its crap!!

It's just typical winter weather that we have to endure , nothing exiting at all , at the moment even up here you will have to climb up a fairly high hill to see any snow Xmas day

[Cold Winter Night]

Before ECM started, it was already clear that we would not get definitive answers from the HRES.

Usually, in more stable, predictable setups, following the Op to at least day 6 is no problem, but that's not how it is right now.
Remember, the High Resolution Operational run and the EPS ensemble were designed to be used together.

The Op was an improvement in the reliable, but not as good as UKMO, and around Christmas it has been jumpy within a large spread ensemble, so it is best to wait for it to stick to a solution and evaluate it against the ensemble when it comes out.

The only hints you might get from the Op later on (144h plus) right now in my opinion are that Atlantic/UK ridging and Arctic High shenanigans might become our next features of interest, exactly what GFS/GEFS also suggested.

[DJ Fart]

17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Good ecm compared to this morning but apart from that its crap!!

Thought it was "wat an upgrade!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" 

Make your mind up. 

[Catacol]

Well - I've managed to catch Covid which puts paid to all plans for Xmas....but this chart will do for me as a poor substitute. There is a lot here to be pleased about from a hemispheric perspective. Notice the arctic high, deep deep cold pushing into Scandinavia and a jet stream tracking on a UK battleground collision course across the atlantic. There is no guarantee that snow will win the battles - at times it is going to rain.....but we have a really good chance of landing a significant snowfall event at some point over the next 7 - 14 days. Somebody somewhere in a low lying area is going to cash in big time.

[Phil Blake]

1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Read them and you will know

Was a bit of sarcasm dude. Had a quick scroll through. 

[NewEra21]

Wasn't the ECM always playing catchup to the GFS last year between the xmas - new year cold spell?

I seem to remember ECM being very poor during that period. Here's hoping we're seeing another repeat performance!

[MJB]

With FI being 96hours we really are in the game