Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[iowpompeylee]

12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Well for me EC is poor. You can dress it up how you like further north or south. Even if it gives a snow day its not a great outlook after 192 hrs imo. All subject to change but the Xmas chase has a very small window of opportunity. Before anyone says fi is way earlier the nhp dosnt support atm a cold spell

Id take a snow day….. just 1 

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Dj fart said:

Thought it was "wat an upgrade!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" 

Make your mind up. 

Yes my friend compared to 00z its a big upgrade but when you then go into what happens at ground level its pretty dung!!!the ecm will do anything it can to stop us from having a snowy spell right now!!

[mulzy]

MOGREPS 60/40 for cold/mild for London 26th-28th.  Trending the right way!

Edited December 20, 2021 by mulzy

[MattStoke]

Christmas Day afternoon now into range of the UKV model. Chilly with cold air and a wintry mix pushing south.

[Guest]

Wouldn't mind seeing the charts for that orange perturbation  

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Relax guys.

Remember ECM has been very poor of late.. why? No idea.. pattern why it’s not far off UKMO/GFS - so wouldn’t worry at all. 
as long as GFS/UKMO are in some agreement. 
keep toys in the pram! We are close!

Close to what tho. You can move that low further south but barring some snow maybe over a couple of days ridging will soon build and cut off any decent 850s if they land

[Midlander]

MOGREPS 12Z: Headline: trended colder

The average for the 2 temps (25th December 15Z) readings for the Midlands were as follows:

0Z Average temp 5.5*C

06Z Average temp 6.02*C

12Z Average temp 3.81*C

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Midlander

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Wouldn't mind seeing the charts for that orange perturbation  

Trendsetter?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

36 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Just watched BBC talking about 13C on Xmas Day....

Possibly cooler by Boxing Day. (but no charts?).  Covering of Backside? 

Suggesting (showing) that the cold air in Scandinavia would not progress southwards so any easterly would be mild.

Which server are they going by?

 

One that's crashed judging by that!

[mulzy]

Early view of eps up to day 9 is underwhelming - nowhere near as good as the gefs.  Disappointed!

[Kasim Awan]

MOGREPS strongly clustering cold BHam north 72%

- London 50 50 so can't be called

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, swfc said:

Close to what tho. You can move that low further south but barring some snow maybe over a couple of days ridging will soon build and cut off any decent 850s if they land

I can't help but notice mate..how the other day it was we need a blend of ecm and ukmo for game on,no need to worry about gfs..now its...we only need a blend of ukmo and gfs,it doesnt matter about ecm..you couldn't make it up

What you say about ridging towards New Year,that's what the met are hinting at...increasing frosts followed by a trend to colder conditions..

Just a thought...now that mogreps is in the public Domain does that mean the BBC maybe using it also,or have the met said forget it Beeb...not after you cancelled our contracts

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

MOGREPS strongly clustering cold BHam north 72%

- London 50 50 so can't be called

That's why I doubt I'll be calling anything until I see it fall past my window!

[Dimie10]

BBC just said white Christmas possible...... only in Scotland though?? Guessing all the hype here is just that.....??

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Early view of eps up to day 9 is underwhelming - nowhere near as good as the gefs.  Disappointed!

To hell with em lol!!!always crap they are!!and when they show somin good for us they downgrade lol!!

[swfc]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

That's why I doubt I'll be calling anything until I see it fall past my window!

You probably have more chance of the window cleaner falling past

[Chesil View]

43 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Just watched BBC talking about 13C on Xmas Day....

Possibly cooler by Boxing Day. (but no charts?).  Covering of Backside? 

Suggesting (showing) that the cold air in Scandinavia would not progress southwards so any easterly would be mild.

Which server are they going by?

 

Bbc week ahead with Matt Taylor just now much more cautious about Xmas day and boxing day giving both scenarios and admitting they still don't know which one will win.

[Johnp]

Just now, Dimie10 said:

BBC just said white Christmas possible...... only in Scotland though?? Guessing all the hype here is just that.....??

Nobody has promised anyone a white Christmas on here. Don't confuse hype for excitement!

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Dimie10 said:

BBC just said white Christmas possible...... only in Scotland though?? Guessing all the hype here is just that.....??

Old data, BBC broadcast uses old date. 

And in this situation the past 12 hours things have really changed.

[Cold Winter Night]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Early view of eps up to day 9 is underwhelming - nowhere near as good as the gefs.  Disappointed!

I would agree.

Although the Op is at the top of the ensemble until the 28th.

Here is the De Bilt meteogram:

(Not going into the London vs Northern England vs Scotland argument again as a Dutchman ).

[ITSY]

3 minutes ago, Dimie10 said:

BBC just said white Christmas possible...... only in Scotland though?? Guessing all the hype here is just that.....??

The pace of this thread is so fast and split-personality at times that things get lost in translation. The "hype" in here is about the potential setup for most of the country after X-mas, starting with Boxing day and going into the weekend. If you're in Scotland, resident atop a Welsh mountain or living on a central-northern English hill somewhere, you might still get lucky before hand. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Old data, BBC broadcast uses old date. 

And in this situation the past 12 hours things have really changed.

Yep..we should be getting tonight's update come Friday

Looks likely that this won't be sorted now til Wednesday...I think we should be much more confident on the outcome by then.

[Dimie10]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Nobody has promised anyone a white Christmas on here. Don't confuse hype for excitement!

I know they haven't! I meant more regards to any cold spell over Christmas, snow is just a bonus!! 

[Midlands Ice Age]

15 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

One that's crashed judging by that!

Thanks for replying...

I have back winded it and they are forecast that the high to our North West (Griceland) is shown to be draining away across us,  in 2days time,  and for it to be sitting in Italy by Xmas!!

Furthermore they have the low in the Atlantic as a massive feature (covering 3/4 of it), with fronts approaching the SW by Thursday. The were forecasting rain for Xmas day, but suggested if you want snow that it may turn to snow over the Grampians, so a long journey was required.

Without charts they then stated that some models were showing that it may turn to snow after Boxing Day.

I did not see the overnight runs last night.   Are they still using those?

I had seen before that they use the ECM and presumably would not have been able to include the latest ECM. So was this forecast 18:30 (BBC1)  based upon the ECM from 00z last night?.

Incredible if true.

MIA

 Edit - Just seen the string of posts above so it looks as if it is....

 The problem is if we do get severe weather suddenly appear (over Xmas?)  then how are they going  to let people know in sufficient time? 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Updated_Weather]

7 minutes ago, Dimie10 said:

BBC just said white Christmas possible...... only in Scotland though?? Guessing all the hype here is just that.....??

Absolutely not!