Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[blizzard81]

I know its the pub run but what a festive mean that is. 

[BelgianBlizzard]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Perhaps 

Yes for whoever is in the snow line area  - no for the south …..

Seems like a white christmas is off the table for the south and for me in Belgium, but after that...? Getting excited again

[Snowman.]

Something is afoot in the ensembles.

A cold Xmas day is pretty much gone BUT there growing support to extend the cold by keeping pressure low to our south/se.

12z  18z  

That a mean NE'ly flow there? Pretty cold.

Edited December 20, 2021 by Snowman.

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Looks good

Oooh thats quite an upgrade!!looks much better than gfs already for the same period!!

[Ali1977]

THIS IS A REALLY COLD MEAN, -6c 850s nearly over the whole U.K. by 29th - this is a very big deal …you just wonder if this is where we could be heading - big Greeny high 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Ali1977

[ITSY]

2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Something is afoot in the ensembles.

A cold Xmas day is pretty much gone BUT there growing support to extend the cold by keeping pressure low to our south/se.

12z  18z 

That a mean NE'ly flow there?

Indeed! Let's see if that catches on. Maybe the prolonged phase 7 MJO forecast catching up with the models? Who knows. The ECM and UKMO will be instructive overnight. But for now, some really exciting trends on the GEFS suite (albeit a heavy jar with the ECM EPS suite earlier this afternoon): 

Cambridge

 

Newcastle

Midlands

South coast

[blizzard81]

The control is frigid. 

[tight isobar]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes, a few more here - the “spaghetti “ may look quite impressive later 

They do- and the 500 shouts- and couninside eps aren’t to shabby either.. no done deal!!- in fact it Cani really go into mobile mild territory.. only really polar/ polar continental- or on the drop side: polar maritime insurgents!.. it’s nit bad ay

Edited December 20, 2021 by tight isobar

[Met4Cast]

EPS on the 18th..

EPS today

If that isn't a substantial shift away from colder solutions then I don't know what is. All models have handled this incredibly poorly, falling AAM and a waning MJO signal into January is making this late Dec cold a bit "all or nothing", the signal for something more westerly Jan/Feb is growing. 

Personally this is looking like nothing more than a bog standard cold spell now, a few lucky spots in the north should do quite well but if you're in the south its looking very meh, no matter how many ENS members you pluck out.

Someone posted a picture of straws earlier, hope you've still got em handy  

[blizzard81]

The morning runs are the most crucial set of this winter so far. What we really need can be summed up in one word only...... Consolidation. 

[londonblizzard]

-6.5 mean for LONDON on the 29th


 

[keithlucky]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

So is my missus.. but I put up with it @ fridgid

God help you,I pray you missus don't see this 

[tight isobar]

Just now, keithlucky said:

God help you,I pray you missus don't see this 

 

Just now, keithlucky said:

God help you,I pray you missus don't see this 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS on the 18th..

EPS today

If that isn't a substantial shift away from colder solutions then I don't know what is. All models have handled this incredibly poorly, falling AAM and a waning MJO signal into January is making this late Dec cold a bit "all or nothing", the signal for something more westerly Jan/Feb is growing. 

Personally this is looking like nothing more than a bog standard cold spell now, a few lucky spots in the north should do quite well but if you're in the south its looking very meh, no matter how many ENS members you pluck out.

Someone posted a picture of straws earlier, hope you've still got em handy  

Hope the morning runs help you turn from the grinch into santa

[Kasim Awan]

Don't check p1 lol

[weathercold]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS on the 18th..

EPS today

If that isn't a substantial shift away from colder solutions then I don't know what is. All models have handled this incredibly poorly, falling AAM and a waning MJO signal into January is making this late Dec cold a bit "all or nothing", the signal for something more westerly Jan/Feb is growing. 

Personally this is looking like nothing more than a bog standard cold spell now, a few lucky spots in the north should do quite well but if you're in the south its looking very meh, no matter how many ENS members you pluck out.

Someone posted a picture of straws earlier, hope you've still got em handy  

You’re assuming the eps has this nailed. It may well do but how confident are you based on so much uncertainty at the moment and constant ensemble flips?

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS on the 18th..

EPS today

If that isn't a substantial shift away from colder solutions then I don't know what is. All models have handled this incredibly poorly, falling AAM and a waning MJO signal into January is making this late Dec cold a bit "all or nothing", the signal for something more westerly Jan/Feb is growing. 

Personally this is looking like nothing more than a bog standard cold spell now, a few lucky spots in the north should do quite well but if you're in the south its looking very meh, no matter how many ENS members you pluck out.

Someone posted a picture of straws earlier, hope you've still got em handy  

You were bigging it up massively a day or two ago!  

No point looking at the ensembles in this situation.  They don’t have the resolution to resolve the issues at T72-T96.  No straw purchases required.  

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS on the 18th..

EPS today

If that isn't a substantial shift away from colder solutions then I don't know what is. All models have handled this incredibly poorly, falling AAM and a waning MJO signal into January is making this late Dec cold a bit "all or nothing", the signal for something more westerly Jan/Feb is growing. 

Personally this is looking like nothing more than a bog standard cold spell now, a few lucky spots in the north should do quite well but if you're in the south its looking very meh, no matter how many ENS members you pluck out.

Someone posted a picture of straws earlier, hope you've still got em handy  

Let me go into my eps dist- drivers @ seers ens.. these turn  around  pretty frequently in my estimation! The spreads posted shout the former mentions. I have many saved.. I’ll have a deco

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS on the 18th..

EPS today

If that isn't a substantial shift away from colder solutions then I don't know what is. All models have handled this incredibly poorly, falling AAM and a waning MJO signal into January is making this late Dec cold a bit "all or nothing", the signal for something more westerly Jan/Feb is growing. 

Personally this is looking like nothing more than a bog standard cold spell now, a few lucky spots in the north should do quite well but if you're in the south its looking very meh, no matter how many ENS members you pluck out.

Someone posted a picture of straws earlier, hope you've still got em handy  

Doesn’t look big standard to me, anything but. These EPS will flip massive tomorrow morning !! 

[Dancerwithwings]

12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Don't check p1 lol

Lol ...just a little dusting

Meteociel - Diagrammes GEFS

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Edited December 20, 2021 by Dancerwithwings

[damianslaw]

So we end the day as confused as we started it perhaps .. or perhaps not. I wasn't expecting the models to fall quite into line by the end if the day but we have seen some coming together at the 96 hr range at least from ECM, GFS and UKMO but unusually it is ECM which is the most progressive of the three. 

Will tomorrow bring any clarity for the 24th to 26th period... a little more but as said it will be Wed morning before the dust settles I feel. Roll up for another rollercoaster ride tomorrow. 

I'm not looking beyond 25th at present.

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Just seen, that could be an epic pasting for some!! One to watch 

Of course NW Kent stays in the rain on this  

[bluearmy]

Uppers dropping to a mean of -8 to -5 ne to sw at day 8 

lower then any previous run 

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You were bigging it up massively a day or two ago!  

No point looking at the ensembles in this situation.  They don’t have the resolution to resolve the issues at T72-T96.  No straw purchases required.  

The eps are way better than the gefs (on resolution) which are currently getting everyone excited

HOWEVER, the eps, when wrong are often wrong together with the whole suite skewed towards one solution 

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Don't check p1 lol

WOOOOW - what a snow storm , can you view the depth chart of this one ENS??? A 48 hour snow storm fir some places 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Ali1977

[jamesgold]

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

EPS on the 18th..

EPS today

If that isn't a substantial shift away from colder solutions then I don't know what is. All models have handled this incredibly poorly, falling AAM and a waning MJO signal into January is making this late Dec cold a bit "all or nothing", the signal for something more westerly Jan/Feb is growing. 

Personally this is looking like nothing more than a bog standard cold spell now, a few lucky spots in the north should do quite well but if you're in the south its looking very meh, no matter how many ENS members you pluck out.

Someone posted a picture of straws earlier, hope you've still got em handy  

If this really is to be our best opportunity this winter, then climate change really is screwing us over, overriding all the positive-looking drivers we have this year… 

Anyway, this isn’t me writing off winter at all, I have hope if the strat plays ball

let’s see where we are tomorrow morning, this GFS 18z was encouraging