Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[bluearmy]

I know we don’t have met office forecasts in here but issued at 4am for e england (their decider model must be confused?)

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Cloudy but dry on Christmas Eve, light rain overnight. Risk of snow early Christmas Day then bright and sunny. Snow possibly returning on Boxing Day, but low confidence.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 22 Dec 2021

Expect that to change with the 2 pm issue 

[The Eagle]

3 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

I’m screen shooting this comment because it’s priceless!! After a sudden flip overnight I’d wouldn’t bet my house on it.

I would... There is not going to be the scale of change required at 2 - 3 days on any model to really impact the Christmas weekend at this stage. I'm all for optimism but there just isn't.

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I know we don’t have met office forecasts in here but issued at 4am for e england (their decider model must be confused?)

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Cloudy but dry on Christmas Eve, light rain overnight. Risk of snow early Christmas Day then bright and sunny. Snow possibly returning on Boxing Day, but low confidence.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 22 Dec 2021

Expect that to change with the 2 pm issue 

Chances next runs could flip back? Is the arpege as good as the GFS/ECM at short range ? 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Ali1977

[snowray]

Very progressive 00z runs from the big three this morning, Interesting though that the new 00z fax chart is exactly the same as yesterday’s 12z for 12.00 on Christmas Day. Arpege, GEM and JMA look similar, maybe it’s not all over quite yet?

Could there still be some sort of battleground somewhere around Northern England coming up I wonder.

 

[markw2680]

21 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

You're talking 48 to 72 hours out. Could it happen? I guess.

Will it? Keeping it real no, it won't at this stage. It would take something really remarkable.

True I’d be completely amazed if it did flip back to cold but then again I wasn’t expecting such a big turn around when I woke this morning 

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I know we don’t have met office forecasts in here but issued at 4am for e england (their decider model must be confused?)

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Cloudy but dry on Christmas Eve, light rain overnight. Risk of snow early Christmas Day then bright and sunny. Snow possibly returning on Boxing Day, but low confidence.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 22 Dec 2021

Expect that to change with the 2 pm issue 

Amazing that in 2021 that the met office can’t give an accurate forecast 2 / 3 days out. It’s Weds today and Christmas Day is Sat

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, snow mad said:

Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

WWW.SOLEN.INFO

A big uptick in solar activity at the wrong time is my thought on why it’s all gone wrong. I know some will laugh but I have a hunch it makes a difference when a sudden change happens to the output of the sun

I couldn't agree more!  The sun went from being relatively quiet, one or two sunspots and solar flux in the 70s, to having 10 sunspot groups, M class flares and a solar flux of 137! When the activity increases so much the jet moves north. This has been noticed many times before and it is bad luck that it happened just as we were about to enter a cold spell. 

Having such an active sun in December is the worst possible scenario for cold.

[markw2680]

22 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

What's your Bros thoughts on this current set up Mark ? don't see his well informed comments much these days 

He’s forgot his details to log in the plank he will be back I’m sure soon good old severe Siberian icy blast. We do but wish the blast would come

[johncam]

Just checked in and my what a big fail from the models , a real disappointment from a few days ago , we would be as well sticking a stick out the window they have been really poor

[The Eagle]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

True I’d be completely amazed if it did flip back to cold but then again I wasn’t expecting such a big turn around when I woke this morning 

You could make the argument that what I describe did happen on the main models, that's true. You can never rule anything out but I wouldn't be pinning any hopes on it.

[Lukesluckybunch]

ICON does look marginally south at 33h hahah

[Wingman Blue]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

True I’d be completely amazed if it did flip back to cold but then again I wasn’t expecting such a big turn around when I woke this morning 

I agree but in the pub at 1800 last night I was told the forecast had flipped to mild over Christmas, I believe BBC and some other media weather facility.

That was 15 hours ago but maybe it’s like trying to hit a moving target as I mentioned two or three days ago?

Edited December 22, 2021 by Wingman Blue

[tight isobar]

2 hours ago, Jason Edwards said:

A return to Westerlies simply isnt true he said....on the cusp of a notable cold spell he said....

When will that be then ? Some time in the late 2020's ?

- as a self confessed “supossed model expert/reader” @ you’re quote some time bk, you should indeed know.....that the flicked switch to more mobile = less amplified notions Are as trustworthy as the predicted (cold spell) ya know the one that on calendar basis hasn’t even happened / or not yet!!- I’d go into much more technical details about what’s showing in latest suites , as to my own and by way of physics stamp ! But due to what I’ve already stated I’ll not bother!- as if ya care to question- delve - quote ya can trawl through what I’ve already posted flagged up in previous posts!. So in that note onto the set of runs... 

[winterof79]

12 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

I would... There is not going to be the scale of change required at 2 - 3 days on any model to really impact the Christmas weekend at this stage. I'm all for optimism but there just isn't.

Noted you are the go to person before we take in any further output.

Thanks

[beefy201]

9 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

He’s forgot his details to log in the plank he will be back I’m sure soon good old severe Siberian icy blast. We do but wish the blast would come

Indeedy Do tell him Mr Morgan is not impressed 

[Hotspur62]

Well as others have said a very big flip in last 24 hours by the big 3 to milder weather it seems unfortunately.The cold always looked unlikely tbh for my neck of the woods but really upset for the midlands ,wales and north where it looked very likely from just 5 days out(for Xmas day).Having been mainly an observer on this great forum for 10 years plus have never seen such a sudden flip by the big 3(only that ECM in December 2012 comes close!!).Obviously still a chance they could flip back somewhat but feel that is probably 10% at best.

Thank you to everyone for their insight in what has been a chase for about what seems an eternity and it is gut wrenching for the many of us that crave for the magic of snow but the chase moves on again for January when hopefully our luck will change for the betterIn the meantime stay safe everyone and enjoy Christmas with your loved ones

[Jordan S]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Amazing that in 2021 that the met office can’t give an accurate forecast 2 / 3 days out. It’s Weds today and Christmas Day is Sat

They probably are referring to the first weather front later Christmas Eve weakening Christmas morning.

Edited December 22, 2021 by jordan smith

[saintkip]

2 hours ago, Jason Edwards said:

As its not going to snow now I’d love to see wind and gales, anything that makes me happy to be indoors out of the weather. I work outside all year and it’s always the same at Christmas, the week or so off the weather is great for working outside.

[tight isobar]

There’s ya point basing of sudden model flip.. and shouts why it’s not to be at all trustworthy @ PNA..

[The Eagle]

9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Noted you are the go to person before we take in any further output.

Thanks

No worries! 

ICON 6z if anything pushing the cold air even further back over the weekend.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

No worries! 

ICON 6z if anything pushing the cold air even further back over the weekend.

yes absolute dire output from ICON

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

There’s ya point basing of sudden model flip.. and shouts why it’s not to be at all trustworthy @ PNA..

It’s hardly racing positive though - it went down to levels off the chart!  It’s not going to stay down there for too long. can’t see that leads to a flip and the differences being shown on the op models have been hinted at by the last few ens suites (and the ops themselves).  I would be leaving it for twelve hours before jumping to any conclusions…… 

[jamesgold]

Can’t believe I’m saying this but I think ICON may have won this spell… consistently not backed it recently 

[The Eagle]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

yes absolute dire output from ICON

They'll be struggling to even have wintry showers in any part of north east Scotland at this rate.

[Wayne cox]

It’s all gone Pete tong 

but there is still A chance for week two in Jan