Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[mulzy]

 

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This is what I’ve been banging on about the last few days.  Far from perfect but very very amplified.

Edited December 22, 2021 by mulzy

[supernova]

BBC Look North "No chance of a White Christmas in Lincolnshire, mostly cloudy with occasional outbreaks of rain over the Christmas period into Boxing Day." No hesitation, no mention of troublesome modelling. Clearly relying on the ECM - rightly or wrongly? Looking forward to finding out. Head saying one thing, heart saying another, but brave to bet against the pros!

Edited December 22, 2021 by supernova

[northwestsnow]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

deepest FI, but warmest last day of Dec on record?

More interested in a scandy high TBH.

 

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

2013 example 

[GSP]

Christ from ECM. We would have ash from La Palma if it was still spewing it out.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The extremes here are incredible.  This is a monster Scandi by 4th

Insane cold just to our east, ridiculous warmth over us

BFTP

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sheikhy]

Any news on mogreps or too depressing lol!

[Winter Hill]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

2013 example 

If the ECM leads to a scandi high & low pressure in the med, then I’ll settle for that right now ! 

[johncam]

2 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

If the ECM leads to a scandi high & low pressure in the med, then I’ll settle for that right now ! 

Will it though that's the problem,  could end up too far away as usual

[The Northern Ramper]

Shannon is having a lovely time

[jayb1989]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

More likely to see desert sand on the ground than snow judged by this chart..

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, jayb1989 said:

More likely to see desert sand on the ground than snow judged by this chart..

Of course ..

But it's about the evolution ,and for me the evolution looks very promising indeed.

[Winter Hill]

5 minutes ago, johncam said:

Will it though that's the problem,  could end up too far away as usual

Knowing our luck , you’re probably correct

Edited December 22, 2021 by Winter Hill

[johncam]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Of course ..

But it's about the evolution ,and for me the evolution looks very promising indeed.

There is still not lower heights to the south of the high and still higher heights over Iberia , we need this to do one  

[seabreeze86]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Of course ..

But it's about the evolution ,and for me the evolution looks very promising indeed.

This winter is going to go one of two ways IMO . We get teased constantly with bitter cold from the north east and east and just end up with the crumbs 

Or we end up with a classic winter with Scandinavian high dominant with plenty of easterly outbreaks 

[Captain Shortwave]

No point even really caring about day ten;

However I would guarantee that 48 hours later the pattern over Europe would be looking very different when there is a wall of Siberian air being directed westwards from the developing Scandi high. The unusually deep Atlantic trough would provide more warm air advection into that high as well.

However the entire evolution relies of the Arctic high drifting towards Scandinavia in the first place. So just a bit of speculation at this juncture.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[cold snap]

Ecm 240.

My word 

[Uncertainty]

Mogreps: Much colder than 0z set and most members broadly back the op.

12z

0z

Until we get x model agreement, which we never have had, we can only agonise over this traumatic period of model watching!

[sebastiaan1973]

Wonderful charts with an anticyclone of more than 1045 hPa and extreme cold weather with daily tmax of -28c east of Moscow.

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Of course ..

But it's about the evolution ,and for me the evolution looks very promising indeed.

Fair point Nw

It's 9 days away tho and yesterday the cold spell was still on?? 

[NewEra21]

Not to be taken too seriously, especially after the past week or so with all the ups and downs.

But once the dust has finally settled after this weekend, we could definitely be looking to Scandi for height rises. Yes we might turn very mild in the process, but that would be the price we have to pay at hopefully eventually setting up something cold from the East.

[chris55]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That kind of chart is your classic precursor to an epic Easterly flow…….

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

It would seem as though the ECM has received a signal for a Scandy high.

In order to achieve it it has almost thrown all its local and usual weather signals 'out of the pram' in order to achieve a  clear path for its objective.

If it has the correct solution then it really be the coup for this century.

If not then ECM must rethink its model priorities. 

MIA

[swfc]

Just now, chris55 said:

That kind of chart is your classic precursor to an epic Easterly flow…….

 

It's 9 days away and the models can't agree on Xmas app

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Mogreps: Much colder than 0z set and most members broadly back the op.

12z

0z

Until we get x model agreement, which we never have had, we can only agonise over this traumatic period of model watching!

Even better up north.