SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[MAF]

and on that note ^ what's everyone's favourite easter egg? 

[m1chaels]

Scrambled

[Eagle Eye]

Tomorrow's forecast 

Convective Outlook ️

Diurnal heating behind an occluded front with a helpful shortwave trough in the vicinity allowing for 300-400 J/KG of SBCAPE to potentially build up in the afternoon hours fairly widespread across England and Wales capable of a few lightning strikes but fairly pulse storms.

Shallow convection along a weakly sheared zone between the moderately sheared occluded front and the colder sector shear in Ireland means that kinematics do not favour anything other than sparodic lightning therefore we have kept it to a low risk.

Strongly saturated air around London area in the afternoon may mean that most convection is initially north of there with convection inhibited by low-level cloud. Clearings are expected initially in the NW slowly also clearing SE towards London into the evening so best chance for the showers are from mid-day till evening before diurnal heating weakens.

Weak low-level shearing given very strong 0-0.6 mile (-8°C+ widespread) lapse-rates could allow for hail with the strongest convection areas but storms may not last long enough to get a strong enough updraft for anything other than small hail.

Given the weak deep-layer shearing (though I haven't looked specifically at soundings) updrafts are unlikely to be separated from rain shafts so low-precipitation type storm photos are unlikely for any photographers suggesting more distant structure photographs or closer angry cloud photographs may be the best you can get with any stronger Storms though good luck forecasting pulse storms to a specific area.

These will come with the risk of sparodic lightning, small hail (1-2cm's) and heavy rainfall if they can organise well enough.

[Reefseeker]

The skies are getting that convective look about them and a very heavy cell on the radar has passed just south of us. Thank you @Eagle Eye for your convective forecast yesterday. I notice in Nick's storm forecast the mention of a 'sharpening upper trough'. Can anyone explain what that means? Good luck all storm seekers:)

[Eagle Eye]

31 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

The skies are getting that convective look about them and a very heavy cell on the radar has passed just south of us. Thank you @Eagle Eye for your convective forecast yesterday. I notice in Nick's storm forecast the mention of a 'sharpening upper trough'. Can anyone explain what that means? Good luck all storm seekers:)

I'm assuming that this is referring to the shortwave trough situated around NW England at this time.

There are two types of trough longwave and shortwave. A longwave is immediately visible when looking at weather charts. You've got your high pressure on one side and your low pressure which is the longwave trough on the other side. Shortwaves are often embedded within longwaves and they cause upward motion ahead of them which might be easier to understand on the chart below from the NOAA (blue are shortwaves, red are longwaves). I imagine by sharpening it is meant that the amount of upward motion is increasing with a strengthening trough.

[Atmogenic]

I believe i’ve got my eyes on that heavy shower southwest of ashford, once it moves over a bit, i might be able to capture it. Right now it’s behind some woods

[leedsnowfan]

I believe we've just had some tornadic or downdraught winds in NE Brighton. Went crazy crazy out of nowhere for 20 seconds. Stuff everywhere....radar shows a white blip over us at time.

[alexisj9]

36 minutes ago, leedsnowfan said:

I believe we've just had some tornadic or downdraught winds in NE Brighton. Went crazy crazy out of nowhere for 20 seconds. Stuff everywhere....radar shows a white blip over us at time.

Center of a shower would most likely be downdraft, with that heavy rain, might have even been a down burst, but those winds are locally distrutive sometimes.

[Summer tyre]

There was also a Tstorm over Henley-on-Thames that moved into north west London before fizzling out. Good spot yesterday, Eagle eye!

[Emz by the Thames]

First thunder of the year for me around 4.30pm - about 3 miles away but still felt it though my feet and it made me jump!

[alexisj9]

Showers but no thunder here yet, would assume now the subs going down a storm is unlikely, but still plenty of showers around.

[Darkcloud]

Big rumble here, skies black heading this way and TV keeps cutting out...

Worried for the grass seed I laid yesterday, at this rate it'll all be washed away lol

[Darkcloud]

Ominous

[Tn9]

Nothing here, just a lovely sunset and a rainbow ,and a couple of dollops 

Ps ..have a lovely Easter weekend  everyone...just don't egg each other on

Edited April 6, 2023 by TN9

[classylady]

Hi everyone, not been on here for a little while as my dear dad passed away at the end of February……

A shower has just passed over here. Photos of before, and after!

Wishing you all a lovely Easter. X
 

[MAF]

my deepest sympathies for your loss. 

[Harry's House]

My sympathies for your loss too.

[Dami]

So after being in Bed ill for a week it was nice to see some lovely clouds today and some heavy ish rain.

Bring on the storm season

[Eagle Eye]

So err, my photo got on the BBC today. Will upload all the photos and some timelapses of the showers later on or tomorrow or sometime hopefully.

[Darkcloud]

3 hours ago, classylady said:

Hi everyone, not been on here for a little while as my dear dad passed away at the end of February……

A shower has just passed over here. Photos of before, and after!

Wishing you all a lovely Easter. X
 

So sorry to hear this. My thoughts are with you.

Fab photos. x

[Tn9]

7 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

So err, my photo got on the BBC today. Will upload all the photos and some timelapses of the showers later on or tomorrow or sometime hopefully.

Good one mate..I got one  this morning ..I'm over the moon with it

[Tn9]

10 hours ago, classylady said:

Hi everyone, not been on here for a little while as my dear dad passed away at the end of February……

A shower has just passed over here. Photos of before, and after!

Wishing you all a lovely Easter. X
 

So sorry to here that ,no one sort of prepares you when your little but we deep down  all sort of know ,then you have children and then ..there becomes a time when YOU end up worried about everyone  your parents your children and your thinking i never signed up to  this ,you feel anxiety on all sides ..my deepest sympathy..you have great easter too x

[chilly milly]

13 hours ago, classylady said:

Hi everyone, not been on here for a little while as my dear dad passed away at the end of February……

A shower has just passed over here. Photos of before, and after!

Wishing you all a lovely Easter. X
 

So sorry to hear this, Classylady. Such a sad time for you. Thank you for the beautiful photos, though. x

[Atmogenic]

whilst no rain is predicted today, the sky is a classical april look, sunshine with nice bubbly cumulus clouds 

[Tn9]

Can see here in the  South east a chilly end to the month ,same old thing.. chilly north sea but too warm in winter for much wintry stuff even if wind is in right direction ,like a status quo ,but not bad thing I MUST add