Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Get in there, looks great again 

Just need to get that down to T0!  The roller coaster will start imminently 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Don

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

312

A very long way to countdown, but good that vortex looks to move across at day 8-9

Angle of attack not as good as the 12z but it's trends rather than specifics at the minute , and the trend is good so far 

[Updated_Weather]

Is it true? Is the chase back on?

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Diff polar profile on the 18z - will the MAR extend towards the pole or be toppled 

the 12z was nigh on perfect with the heights coming across from the other side of the NH to meet our ridge 

You know that we should all be relieved that the pub run didn't come up with the epitome of the 12z nirvana. It makes the 12z nirvana more likely to verify. 

[bluearmy]

The current gfs fi op evolution is supported right up to the upper reaches of the strat 

this gives it a little more credence than would usually be the case with week 2 fi gfs op runs 

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Is it true? Is the chase back on?

Didn’t you know that Jan is a write off for any cold .

I think the chase is back on, be nice to see it inside 10 days to get the ECM and GEM take on things. 

[blizzard81]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The current gfs fi op evolution is supported right up to the upper reaches of the strat 

this gives it a little more credence than would usually be the case with week 2 fi gfs op runs 

Plus it was always the king of Greenland height rises. 

[offerman]

It’s all too far out imho for those cold charts. Remember what was progged for the Christmas period and the flip just two days out for the worse.

 Wait until these charts verify much nearer the time hehe getting yourselves too excited , save being let down too much that way. Gfs does overcook these types of cold scenarios. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The current gfs fi op evolution is supported right up to the upper reaches of the strat 

this gives it a little more credence than would usually be the case with week 2 fi gfs op runs 

+ you've got to say that's as good a run to run consistency as your ever likely to get (although not perfection) with GFS 300 hours charts.

[Updated_Weather]

On 05/01/2022 at 23:10, Ali1977 said:

Didn’t you know that Jan is a write off for any cold .

I think the chase is back on, be nice to see it inside 10 days to get the ECM and GEM take on things. 

Well.. we shall see won’t we! The weather will only have the last laugh!

yes it’ll be nice to have them on board but plenty of time for that.. remember it has to be one to sniff the potential first.. I thought gfs was good at doing that.. time will tell.

[tight isobar]

Ukmo HD has a non event for the south @friday snow.. with the Chanel taking the precipitation!.. but others ( models)say differently.. tomorrow will be the wiper screen day on this.

Edited January 5, 2022 by tight isobar

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

You know that we should all be relieved that the pub run didn't come up with the epitome of the 12z nirvana. It makes the 12z nirvana more likely to verify. 

It doesn't do too bad though

[Frigid]

i think the most important development in Fl today, is that the bulk of the PV has moved towards Russia allowing retrogression. the GFS and ECM mean illustrates this clearly. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi all,...just catching up in here with numerous pages to read over the last few days

it seems that today has forced me into posting again 

the 12z op and control was a thing of beauty and well within the envelope of the 12z gefs ens

another good run from the 18z gfs and showing some consistency with an Atlantic ridge retrogressing west to allow a trough to drop down into Scandi

here is the 12z gefs ens mean 850's in the extended from 300> out to day 16

and the NH height anomalies for the same time scales

^these charts have some cross polar flow support as is showing in the det runs from the gfs and some gefs ens.the eps up to day ten doesn't show this as this forecasted cold spell is beyond day ten(i do not have access to the ext) ,maybe @mulzy and the few might comment with regards of these

the chase is on guys and i hope that it comes to fruition this time,...we have been burnt once already but i must stress that this can implode on us as we get nearer the time but it's great to see some sort of a signal in the NWP'S all the same. 

 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hi all,...just catching up in here with numerous pages to read over the last few days

it seems that today has forced me into posting again 

the 12z op and control was a thing of beauty and well within the envelope of the 12z gefs ens

another good run from the 18z gfs and showing some consistency with an Atlantic ridge retrogressing west to allow a trough to drop down into Scandi

here is the 12z gefs ens mean 850's in the extended from 300> out to day 16

and the NH height anomalies for the same time scales

^these charts have some cross polar flow support as is showing in the det runs from the gfs and some gefs ens.the eps up to day ten doesn't show this as this forecasted cold spell is beyond day ten(i do not have access to the ext) ,maybe @mulzy and the few might comment with regards of these

the chase is on guys and i hope that it comes to fruition this time,...we have been burnt once already but i must stress that this can implode on us as we get nearer the time but it's great to see some sort of a signal in the NWP'S all the same. 

 

It does look like something is brewing. We've been here before and we all know it can go either way. The one thing I do know though is that the gfs leads the way at this timeframe in the Greenland vicinity. 

[nobble]

19 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ukmo HD has a non event for the south @friday snow.. with the Chanel taking the precipitation!.. but others ( models)say differently.. tomorrow will be the wiper screen day on this.

If the system goes south will that pull snow showers further south also ?

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It does look like something is brewing. We've been here before and we all know it can go either way. The one thing I do know though is that the gfs leads the way at this timeframe in the Greenland vicinity. 

Yes good mean that but i will post the day ten mean vs the 12z mean at 252 and you can clearly see more of a ridge into S Greenland than the 12z.

 

 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[markw2680]

2 minutes ago, nobble said:

If the system goes south will that pull snow showers further south also ?

I may be wrong but the problem for the midlands here is the wind direction is too westerly so most of the showers get sucked up by the Welsh mountains hope I’m wrong though. It won’t matter though if the last couple of gfs runs prove to be on the money

[damianslaw]

24 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Didn’t you know that Jan is a write off for any cold .

I think the chase is back on, be nice to see it inside 10 days to get the ECM and GEM take on things. 

There is cold upon us right now... widespread cold! Depends what you call cold, must it be -15 degrees..

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, nobble said:

If the system goes south will that pull snow showers further south also ?

No- the vents are not in favour of that!.. anyway it’s still an unfolding one.. my bet is precipitation from Hertfordshiresouth Buckinghamshire  south.. and then it’s all about the overheads for precipitation form .. ie snow/rain 

[Allseasons-Si]

You can see the retrogression of the tpv splitting, one moving east towards NE Scandi and residual one N Canada and the heights retrogressing west/northwest into the Atlantic/southern Greenland in this mean 500mb and Geopotential height anomaly animation.

192-252.

Edited January 5, 2022 by Allseasons-si
Added info

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

No- the vents are not in favour of that!.. anyway it’s still an unfolding one.. my bet is precipitation from Hertfordshiresouth Buckinghamshire  south.. and then it’s all about the overheads for precipitation form .. ie snow/rain 

I'd have to back rain/sleet for the far south - away from the highest elevations. 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

I'd have to back rain/sleet for the far south - away from the highest elevations. 

Possibly- although surprise snow at lower ASL,S is always possible in these throws.. we’ll know tomorrow.

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z control gunning for another northerly at 276 backed up by a better mean than the 12.

the gefs ens take a tanking towards the -5 line by the 17th,...that is quicker than the 12z that don't get the -5 line in until the 20th

18z vs 12z 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[georgiedre]

On 04/01/2022 at 10:56, georgiedre said:

Looks like a lot of high pressure out in the Atlantic and lower heights to our ne might be a theme.  Hopefully this will carry on and provide a few northerly outbreaks by the 15th ish

Looks like my comment is gaining support.  Hope I'm right this time.  Knowing our luck it will show mild south westerlies tomorrow abc