Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[feb1991blizzard]

Here she comes...........................           Earlier than 12 hours run.

[Kasim Awan]

Another gfs vs ecm battle?

[Lukesluckybunch]

lovley looking 18z coming up here!

[Mike Poole]

Up she goes! T234:

Of course, the real story is the movement of the vortex, to our NE!!

Edited January 5, 2022 by Mike Poole

[frosty ground]

not sure the PV in Kansas anymore 

[Ali1977]

A Better first bout of WAA with it being slightly more to the West than the 12z, the second push of WAA around day 13 is what gave the screaming Cross Polar flow northerly - I wonder if that’ll show up again

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Up she goes! T234:

Of course, the real story is the movement of the vortex, to our NE!!

how far up is she going to get mike?

[tight isobar]

With that mother lobe insitu- we will be absolute sitting ducks for polar spill.. and ANY mlb will be of aid.. let alone hlb.. if this is going to gain in evolution.. then the spectacular is on the table —- for sure

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Another gfs vs ecm battle?

Ecm has smashed GFS recently in the reliable, but hopefully FI scenarios are different.

GFS does have a habit of picking up a change at range.

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

how far up is she going to get mike?

Seems stuck at T240, I’d guess not as far as the 12z run, but much less of the vortex left to our NW so is probably a better run for UK in the longer term.  

[bluearmy]

T288

 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Seems stuck at T240, I’d guess not as far as the 12z run, but much less of the vortex left to our NW so is probably a better run for UK in the longer term.  

gets there eventually 

[tight isobar]

Cut off point for myself until the weekend.. will be 240- and the energy drain on the vortex @ west- to east. Not only for maximum pv lobe-filling.. but for the draw and flow of waa into the Canadian/ Greenland geographicals. If it works in sync then holy grail Synoptics start to come into play even around 168hrs in3 days time...the game is well and truly bk on

Edited January 5, 2022 by tight isobar

[nobble]

48 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

South of England snow event firming up a little, a little movement north or south obviously possible but looking good for some.

Hopefully a move to another west mids snow event

[BelgianBlizzard]

I heared it here before: cold charts at 15+ days rarely verify, but when they start appearing out of the clear blue sky at 6 or 7+ days...something's up

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

T288

 

Is that the 2nd pulse of WAA heading into Greenland again? It was 288 on the 12z when That happened !! 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Ali1977

[Ice Day]

The Control almost managing to sneak an easterly up on us at 156.  Not quite, but 5/10 for effort.

 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Is that the 2nd pulse of WAA heading into Greenland again? It was 288 on the 12z when That happened !! 

Yes and it’s timing is similar to the 12z 

 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The Control almost managing to sneak an easterly up on us at 156.  Not quite, but 5/10 for effort.

 

This is the key to what unfolds later with regards to Greenland ?

[Ali1977]

GEFS mean also looking promising for the south on Fri, expect we may see some warnings for this if it’s still modelled in the morning 

[Battleground Snow]

312

A very long way to countdown, but good that vortex looks to move across at day 8-9

Edited January 5, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Ali1977]

Get in there, looks great again - winter is over kind of charts it’s a long way off but good trend. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Ali1977

[Don]

44 minutes ago, Dunstable Snow said:

Cummon Don you know you want too !

 

Oh go on then! 

[geordiekev]

Euro trough

Scandi Heights

Crunch point is the cut off low heading East into Atlantic on 10th which aids to move to High Pressure into much more favourable position & prevents the long draw SW touted a few days ago.

Building blocks taking shape

[bluearmy]

Diff polar profile on the 18z - will the MAR extend towards the pole or be toppled 

the 12z was nigh on perfect with the heights coming across from the other side of the NH to meet our ridge