Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Ali1977]

Day 10 not bad, v close to being great. Let’s see what the ENS do

 

FI also shows something interesting. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

What we are looking for post day 9 is this residual piece of trop vortex to stay as far West over Canada as possible, so Atlantic Ridging has a chance to move north

[Battleground Snow]

GFS trolling the bad Teleconnections here, maybe that's what we needed after all

[Kasim Awan]

These charts are the most interesting I've seen all winter. A clean retrogression on gfs with the vortex moving over to Siberia is what it needed in this stubborn +NAO setup imo.

Edited January 5, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[Ali1977]

WOW, what a chart - big FI warning granted, but lovely to see. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

These charts are the most interesting I've seen all winter. A clean retrogression on gfs with the vortex moving over to Siberia is what it needed in this stubborn +NAO setup imo.

GFS op is good at sniffing out a pattern change, let's see if the signal is picked up in the extended EPS/clusters

[Ali1977]

It could be the best northerly I’ve ever seen modelled albeit in deep Fi 

Its about a 5000 mile northerly

Edited January 5, 2022 by Ali1977

[Nick2373]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

WOW, what a chart - big FI warning granted, but lovely to see. 

There’s room for that vortex to move westwards over American, look how slack the pressure is. No high to push it back. Could we possibly seeing a possibility of a split?

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS op is good at sniffing out a pattern change, let's see if the signal is picked up in the extended EPS/clusters

I think the GFS has got it's runs mixed up with the pub run.

This is absolutely insane

[feb1991blizzard]

Lovely clean evolution this run, not littered with spoiler shortwaves, these are how the genuine cold spells do arrive, not saying it will verify and spoilers wont pop up, just that if this was in the semi-reliable and well supported, i would be more confident than a lot of those failed ones.

[LRD]

Cor blimey. If only...

Over reaction to the AAM signal, that others have mentioned, perhaps?

[Staffmoorlands]

58 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

All aboard the Anticyclonic Gloom Train?

 

I would suggest watching this after all the 'boom' posts in the last 30 minutes and look how the Met Office use 'decider' to predict weather patterns at a longer range

[seabreeze86]

At 360hrs only got another 312hrs before it’s in the reliable

[CoxR]

I'm expecting the op to flip flop all over the place over the next week or so while the model tries to resolve the evolution of the high. This run is best case scenario.

[Gowon]

I would love this run to come true just to prove a few members wrong that are so confident the winter is done for. 

[bluearmy]

Gfs plucks one right from the top shelf ……

should frame that 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

I would love this run to come true just to prove a few members wrong that are so confident the winter is done for. 

That’s the reason you’d love that run to verify ???

 

[Weather-history]

Crikey...its like January 1940 all over again....

[Dancerwithwings]

The PV is axed 

[That ECM]

Just got in had a look at the output. Don’t suppose anyone has mentioned this. said a couple of days ago that fi would throw some great looking charts out. But it remains fi although stunning to look at and dream. Going to read through 5 pages of posts to see if anyone has noticed this.

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s the reason you’d love that run to verify ???

 

And lots of snow.

Edited January 5, 2022 by D.V.R
typo

[Frostbite1980]

6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Crikey...its like January 1940 all over again....

What are the 850's associated with that chart WH? 

[feb1991blizzard]

BTW - although i don't think it will verify for one minute, that video from the Met Office doesn't cover the  timescale of the GFS Northerly plunge, it occurs after day 10.

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

What are the 850's associated with that chart WH? 

 

January 1940

[chris55]

11 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

I would suggest watching this after all the 'boom' posts in the last 30 minutes and look how the Met Office use 'decider' to predict weather patterns at a longer range

I would suggest letting people comment on charts in the MOD as they wish. 
 

BOOM (nailed)