Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[That ECM]

I say look at the nhp for T240 on gfs and ecm. The trend is for the Pv to be positioned a lot better than we have seen.  We can worry about detail as hopefully the later charts get closer T0. As is always, getting cold I mean proper cold is fraught with obstacles and hurdles but as I said earlier, back in the game. That the news fron the 12z’s for me.

[blizzard81]

On closer inspection, the gfs op has the same low as the ecm in the middle of the atlantic but less developed. Maybe from days 12 onwards is the real opportunity. 

[Mike Poole]

20 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Well well well the gfs goes for a Dec 2010 redux. What could possibly go wrong?........

Well it's in FI

It's low resolution

Its probably completely overblown

It will end up S a teo day toppler

GFS high res right through the run now, since FV3 upgrade, for anyone who doesn’t know.

Compare GFS and ECM T240, it is those small features on GFS that give initial WAA right into Greenland, which the bigger system later builds on, that can’t happen on ECM because of the low which has developed and already gone past the opportunity at T240:

But worth watching the GFS evolution from T192 to the end:

Weather model porn, that run!

Edited January 5, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Mariescb]

43 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It’s just human nature. All or nothing. Plus most are cold nutters and see cold charts and go to a happy place. No cold charts and that’s it winter is over forever. 

 

joking apart this is encouraging. But there are still plenty above the red line but the white line is going south. either way it’s of interest to coldies.

 

BACK IN THE GAME

 

 

It's why we love it so

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,Well I can’t remember so much discussion regarding a high pressure scenario,

but the possibility of it bringing some very wintery weather to our shores makes it very understandable.

Just a quick mention on GFS 240 hrs onwards remember that fluctuating elements of positioning this high

will of course happen.Keep your feet firmly on the ground but be encouraged by what GFS is showing and

let’S hope they are sniffing out something special.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters, and I’ll cut to the chase, the extended T264+ because that is where the interest is:

Well the GFS 12z is certainly represented, it is in cluster 2!  But an Atlantic ridge (purple border) regime is yet again the ultimate destination of all 3 clusters, although as we have seen today, not all Atlantic ridges are equal.  Cluster 3 looks like a toppler, bit too much of a vortex lobe behind that one. Cluster 1 somewhere in the middle.  Let’s count this down folks!!

[Ali1977]

ECM. day 10 mean looks primed, similar to the GEFS maybe - with some good extended Ensembles. 

[winterof79]

This is fast becoming the season of the wedge.Plentyful chances of snow to come ,some more potent than others

[phil nw.]

Gefs after day 10 not without interest either.We see the Siberian lobe near the pole draining south across Scandinavia with a mean trough into E.Europe.

which eventually brings the UK colder air from the north west.

[Chesil View]

44 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS high res right through the run now, since FV3 upgrade, for anyone who doesn’t know.

Compare GFS and ECM T240, it is those small features on GFS that give initial WAA right into Greenland, which the bigger system later builds on, that can’t happen on ECM because of the low which has developed and already gone past the opportunity at T240:

But worth watching the GFS evolution from T192 to the end:

Weather model porn, that run!

Definitely weatherporn there Mike.

My comments were tongue in cheek.

The next chase is on albeit a way off yet and need ecm to start heading that way as well when it gets into that range too.

[The Enforcer]

The timeframe of interest is T+168, where that troublemaker first shows its hand:

[Loulucas]

On 04/01/2022 at 19:16, mountsbaysnow said:

As a newbie to posting and more an observer, I believe we are at the cusp of some very interesting weather. I am not very knowledgeable regarding the models etc, but am a firm believer of chaos theory. We are experiencing some unusual weather patterns around the globe. Its only a matter of time before its our turn. Expect the unexpected.

Agreed. My friend in Southern Alabama had the air con on it was so warm then the next day she woke up to 2 inches of snow. Odd weather 

[Ali1977]

Definitely a downward trend in the EC ens for De-Bilt, and there are a few that go cold from day 8. Just a watching brief for a few days and see what happens. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Ali1977

[Staffmoorlands]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Definitely a downward trend in the EC ens for De-Bilt, and there are se deal that Ho cold from day 8. Just a watching brief for a few days and see what happens. 

Those are fairly grim for continental Europe in mid January! Barely a frost.

Edited January 5, 2022 by Staffmoorlands

[SqueakheartLW]

You might want GFS 12z P25's northerly to verify if very cold uppers is what you are after

+312h

+324h

+336h

+348h

Also that trough embedded in with those very cold uppers.

Think we all know what that means.

Edited January 5, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

 

 

Think we all know what that means.

A State of emergency for Scotland and a red warning!

[Ali1977]

Icon has the feature running across the south again on Friday, maybe a bit further north than earlier !! 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Ali1977

[Dancerwithwings]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A State of emergency for Scotland and a red warning! for the rest of us!!

 Feb you didn’t mind if I finished that

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Icon has the feature running across the south again on Friday, maybe a bit further north than earlier !! 

The ec did show some snowfall on that feature but the dp’s where the precip was shown were positive so i suspect anything of note would be with elevation 

[Chesil View]

All totally hypothetical at the moment but it's interesting  to note that, exceptionally wintry though the final few frames of the 12z gfs are. There are actually colder ensemble runs including a good number that bring it in at 240 hrs rather than later but then keep it going.

The next steps if this has any hope of coming to fruition is to see the Ecm head in a similar direction and also the Meto extended to start talking about it more than in terms of the odd colder blast with snow mainly on northern hills like they are at the moment.

I note also that Carinthians weather bods in Austria were talking about the high pulling west and the Scandi trough dropping into Europe in the lo get term which is essentially what gfs does 

As ever we shall see what unfolds. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Mike Poole]

Cumulative snow to T48 on the 12z short range for UKV, EURO4 and HARMONIE:

[Lukesluckybunch]

not long now till the 18z rolls out,lets hope for somthing similar to the 12z

[markw2680]

36 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

You might want GFS 12z P25's northerly to verify if very cold uppers is what you are after

+312h

+324h

+336h

+348h

Also that trough embedded in with those very cold uppers.

Think we all know what that means.

If only

[tight isobar]

Another format: mid month is certainly becoming the chase point!.. as again I’m sure we can’t keep throwing at the bullseye and missing!.. the 2m temp plots are decent- especially for deep winter . The hunt is well and truly on...get strapped in!!!

Edited January 5, 2022 by tight isobar

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Another format: mid month is certainly becoming the chase point!.. as again I’m sure we can’t keep throwing at the bullseye and missing!.. the 2m temp plots are decent- especially for deep winter . The hunt is well and truly on...get strapped in!!!

I’m strapped in buddy!  But can we get back all those so many members who have declared winter a busted flush, all in for  Christmas, and no chips left,   to persue this chase?  Hope so, the pursuit of the holy grail as epitomised by the GFS 12z run begins right now!