Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

This is fast becoming the season of the wedge.Plentyful chances of snow to come ,some more potent than others

Glad it's not going to be known for its infamous wedgies lol  

[The Enforcer]

43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec did show some snowfall on that feature but the dp’s where the precip was shown were positive so i suspect anything of note would be with elevation 

Ah yes, the ubiquitous party-pooper mild sector, which of course is entirely absent on 12z GFS, showing an all-snow event:

Don't worry, it will be corrected on Friday's 12z GFS.

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m strapped in buddy!  But can we get back all those so many members who have declared winter a busted flush, all in for  Christmas, and no chips left,   to persue this chase?  Hope so, the pursuit of the holy grail as epitomised by the GFS 12z run begins right now!  

Yes, but only if they stand in the corner wearing a cone-shaped hat with a big 'D' on it.

Edited January 5, 2022 by The Enforcer

[swfc]

17 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Another format: mid month is certainly becoming the chase point!.. as again I’m sure we can’t keep throwing at the bullseye and missing!.. the 2m temp plots are decent- especially for deep winter . The hunt is well and truly on...get strapped in!!!

Keep up with the updates man

[Cambrian]

From the 12z GFS op., the snow cover chart at 384h gives Penzance a measly 37cm. 

At that range, and with absolutely no chance that the GFS might have gone off on one, snow lovers in the far southwest will no doubt already know that this is 100% going to verify and are preparing to ski down to Land’s End gleefully shouting out random phrases such as “strat / trop disconnect”, “take that Hadley cell”, “I told you the MJO’s in phase 7” and their favourite, “they said the best we could hope for is the odd burst of cold zonality that might give some wintry chances for favoured spots in the north”. 

[SqueakheartLW]

2 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

From the 12z GFS op., the snow cover chart at 384h gives Penzance a measly 37cm. 

At that range, and with absolutely no chance that the GFS might have gone off on one, snow lovers in the far southwest will no doubt already know that this is 100% going to verify and are preparing to ski down to Land’s End gleefully shouting out random phrases such as “strat / trop disconnect”, “take that Hadley cell”, “I told you the MJO’s in phase 7” and their favourite, “they said the best we could hope for is the odd burst of cold zonality that might give some wintry chances for favoured spots in the north”. 

Penzance more snow than Scunthorpe LOL.

I'd like to know what the 12z has been drinking

[mountsbaysnow]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

Penzance more snow than Scunthorpe LOL.

I'd like to know what the 12z has been drinking

Oh stop it you tease 12z GFS.

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Penzance more snow than Scunthorpe LOL.

I'd like to know what the 12z has been drinking

Whatever it is the pub run will have had a lot more, I think .  Look with the run coming out, I think we just need to see something that is vaguely similar to the 12z in the early stages, anything more is a bonus, and - if it were to happen - would strengthen the case for a proper cold snap, let’s wee - typo! but I’d let it stand given the 12z, with the 18z let’s see.  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Penzance more snow than Scunthorpe LOL.

I'd like to know what the 12z has been drinking

bugger all here, but miles in FI, especially for snow charts, any more than 24 hours away really is fantasy

[The Enforcer]

15 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

At that range, and with absolutely no chance that the GFS might have gone off on one, snow lovers in the far southwest will no doubt already know that this is 100% going to verify and are preparing to ski down to Land’s End gleefully shouting out random phrases such as “strat / trop disconnect”, “take that Hadley cell”, “I told you the MJO’s in phase 7” and their favourite, “they said the best we could hope for is the odd burst of cold zonality that might give some wintry chances for favoured spots in the north”. 

Imagine an alternate reality where models were held to account for their forecasts in Question Time type debates and phone-ins, quite unlike what happens in our reality where the next day they simply pretend the erroneous model/forecast never happened and proceed to churn out more of the same with apparent impunity.

Edited January 5, 2022 by The Enforcer

[Ice Day]

Just a bit of fun whilst we're waiting for the 18z to roll out, here are the GEFS from tonight's 12z vs yesterdays 12z

   

Whilst it will take a braver man than I to hang his hat on these, there's no denying tonight's are showing more cold members in deep FI and are an 'upgrade' of sorts.  The question is, is this the start of a chase or another false dawn (I think we know the answer to that, but you can never be sure!!!)  

[stodge]

Evening all

Well, both the GFS 12Z OP and Control go off "on one" as the saying has it tonight. 

OP makes more of an initial height rise to the east so the UK HP is always linked to a stronger ridge to the east but both OP and Control play the retrogression card for all its worth in far FI but that's all it is at this time.

In the more immediate, the agreement seems to be to have the HP centred off the south west of Ireland.

At T+168, UKMO, ECM, GEM, JMA and GFS Op respectively

Superficially similar - GEM looks a little out of kilter with the others but not by much. It's a large anticyclone for any time of year but there's just enough energy in the sub-tropical LP to the south west of the Azores and in the eastern Med to hold it as an MLB. 

[Ali1977]

South of England snow event firming up a little, a little movement north or south obviously possible but looking good for some.

[Don]

37 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m strapped in buddy!  But can we get back all those so many members who have declared winter a busted flush, all in for  Christmas, and no chips left,   to persue this chase?  Hope so, the pursuit of the holy grail as epitomised by the GFS 12z run begins right now!  

Not quite declared winter a busted flush but still recovering from the pre-Christmas roller coaster.  I might join the party late! 

[Dunstable Snow]

10 minutes ago, Don said:

Not quite declared winter a busted flush but still recovering from the pre-Christmas roller coaster.  I might join the party late! 

Cummon Don you know you want too !

 

[Dancerwithwings]

37 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

From the 12z GFS op., the snow cover chart at 384h gives Penzance a measly 37cm. 

At that range, and with absolutely no chance that the GFS might have gone off on one, snow lovers in the far southwest will no doubt already know that this is 100% going to verify and are preparing to ski down to Land’s End gleefully shouting out random phrases such as “strat / trop disconnect”, “take that Hadley cell”, “I told you the MJO’s in phase 7” and their favourite, “they said the best we could hope for is the odd burst of cold zonality that might give some wintry chances for favoured spots in the north”. 

Absolutely brill, top class Cambrian.

[blizzard81]

This seems to have slipped under most people's radar. The sly, last minute scandi high. Yesterday's compared with tonight's. Whilst it may be a tad too late, it does have ramifications going forwards if heights over Greenland are your liking . It will aid retrogression. 

[tight isobar]

16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

South of England snow event firming up a little, a little movement north or south obviously possible but looking good for some.

We can I think now say that snow will fall in the areas mentioned.. probably of a transition phase, and what accumulation there will be remains open.. although the usual elevator tactics will be the best spots.. however this is one to watch nxt 24 hrs.

[snowspotter]

Any reason the 18Z is not updating on Netweather when it is on Meteociel? . Whats the point in paying for 'extra' if it doesn't update.  

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This seems to have slipped under most people's radar. The sly, last minute scandi high. Yesterday's compared with tonight's. Whilst it may be a tad too late, it does have ramifications going forwards if heights over Greenland are your liking . It will aid retrogression. 

Yes, agreed, and actually the 18z has higher heights across Scandi than the 12z, T156 v T162 12z:

But ultimately this cold is going to have to come from the north, so the low heights into S Europe are also very important - better on 12z.  Plenty of the run to come though.  

[blizzard81]

I'm much more optimistic now that the stronger ridging is now modelled into scandi. It will create a more meridional flow with more meaningful buckles in the northern arm of the jet. Much better chances of getting that elusive 'true' Greenie high. 

[Dunstable Snow]

It would be interesting to know why those who have written off January and the script for February have done so and what they feel about the model output tonight - is it an over reaction to a teleconnection or is it as I feel and have said several times an assessment of the tpv and the very random responses which will lead to regular opportunities for cold.

[Ali1977]

Day 9 amd the PV has actually all moved from Canada, about to get some WAA into Greenland hopefully 

[Battleground Snow]

PV even more shifted to Asia this run, whatever comes next is a bonus.

[Mike Poole]

I guess we are only just approaching crunch point on this run, here GFS 18z T192 v 12z T198:

You’d have to say the pub run is pushing the vortex away even faster than the 12z…where will this one go…

[frosty ground]

will it follow the 12z path?