Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BTW - although i don't think it will verify for one minute, that video from the Met Office doesn't cover the  timescale of the GFS Northerly plunge, it occurs after day 10.

Your more likely to see Lord Lucan astride Shergar holding the pot of gold from the end of a rainbow in the company of a hundred Unicorns as you are to see that chart come off  

[The Northern Ramper]

Winter being given the last rites by all and sundry in this thread.

GFS - Hold my coat

[Ali1977]

Well the mean and control Seem to follow the op I’d say

[Mike Poole]

GFS 12z op while extreme, fits within the pattern envelope on the ECM clusters T264+ on both the 0z and yesterday’s 12z.  So it will be interesting to see what the clusters say tonight.  It looks like there is a window for some proper amplification to the NW post day 10 but the timing will have to be split second, or it will end up being another toppler.  It’s one to watch over the next few runs to see if it gains any traction, or (more likely at this stage, of course) fizzles out!  Interesting!

Edited January 5, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Ali1977]

23 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

I would suggest watching this after all the 'boom' posts in the last 30 minutes and look how the Met Office use 'decider' to predict weather patterns at a longer range

The met will go with the GFS op , it’s pretty much nailed on now at day 12 - I heard

On a serious note though, the METO 10 has nothing to do with this latest run - wrong time frame 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Ali1977

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Nice GFS this evening (if you're a coldie).  I wonder whether ECM will show any hints of the same outcome?!

And to the fatalists that are adamant the charts won't come off....you are highly likely to be proven right.

However this is the model output discussion thread and so discussion of model output discussion is surely allowed regardless of one's preference and / or enthusiasm!

Oh and there might be some snow kicking about in the forecast for many in the next couple of days

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just to state folks...never give in hope on winter delivering,even when the so called experts paint a poor picture...The UK is always capable of completely going against what the background signals are showing and doing the complete opposite!

The 12z serves up a reminder of what's possible moving forward and it can't be discounted!

I'm actually hearing on the grapevine that the vortex could be about to shift...Will it disrupt or even split further down the line,well I would say this....keep a very open mind. I've also noticed how Exeter for the first time all season are actually talking about decreasing confidence in the forecast moving further into the month...Trust me that's a good sign.

Woke up to snow this morning,and many others got some also...and a greater chance of further disruption in places through Thursday night and Friday..could most definitely be a few suprises!

Make sure you get any snow pics posted to your regionals and perhaps the odd one In here would be nice,because personally I feel it keeps the morale high.. 

Keep cold hunting good folks...sooner or later its gonna land.

Edited January 5, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[phil nw.]

GFS later frames -a collectors item wow wouldn't that something if we even got close to that.

The pv looks like it will undergo some stretching as it moves across the pole and ens. guidance does suggest a developing Scandinavia/E.European trough later on. 

Currently there's little support for any blocking that far north.However we could quite easily get a cold north or north westerly from this sort of pattern going forward.As long as the high eases a little west into the Atlantic alongside a  Euro trough .Enough to keep plenty of cold interest going through the month.

[geordiekev]

35 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It could be the best northerly I’ve ever seen modelled albeit in deep Fi 

Its about a 5000 mile northerly

With low pressure heading to Europe was always going to improve chances as helps to squeeze the azores high into a more prominent position to tackle the PV. Building blocks

Unfortunately for now we have to endure the meh weather

Edited January 5, 2022 by geordiekev

[mpkio2]

4 hours ago, jules216 said:

I was very optimistic about our chances of cold February in autumn, but I have a feeling the - QBO ať levels down to 50hPa is flushing +QBO down to surface and subsequently extending Haddley Cell - mid lat westerlies between 15-35°N, widening Haddley Cell is the single most to blame phenomenom for crap winters in recent past,thats my opinion, we would be better of with ascending then descending -QBO.

 I agree! Its been proven that very strong -QBO through Winter months causes mild weather for UK winters, which is what we are experiencing thus far. 

[Ali1977]

Some day 11 Perbs. The “spaghetti “ chart will be interesting later

[Battleground Snow]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well the mean and control Seem to follow the op I’d say

The control is very good in terms of how small the piece over Canada is, gives us more margin of error.

Edited January 5, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[That ECM]

I must have watched the animated gfs run about 20 times.  it’s just a coldies dream 

[Lukesluckybunch]

wow guys what an amazing gfs 12z!

[The Northern Ramper]

14 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

Nice GFS this evening (if you're a coldie).  I wonder whether ECM will show any hints of the same outcome?!

And to the fatalists that are adamant the charts won't come off....you are highly likely to be proven right.

However this is the model output discussion thread and so discussion of model output discussion is surely allowed regardless of one's preference and / or enthusiasm!

Oh and there might be some snow kicking about in the forecast for many in the next couple of days

Agreed

”The hunt for cold”

not

“The hunt for cold but only if it is within 72hrs can you comment otherwise someone will point out its Fantasy Land”

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

wow guys what an amazing gfs 12z!

There are plenty of cold options that bring the cold in quicker than the Op too 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Ali1977

[fromey]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

wow guys what an amazing gfs 12z!

It sure was, now we have to get it down to t minus 0hrs and we will be be laughing! Can’t see it myself but I will be watching. 

[supernova]

Some great posts earlier - don't need to name names but thanks to those who've taken time to deliver some really detailed thoughts today. Surprised, as a result, to see one of the most striking Northerlies (ever?) modelled in recent times but not going to waste more than a passing, wishful second trying to justify its plausible existence other than to say the Op not without support and will be interesting to see the ensembles later. This, for example, from Control.

EDIT: Getting better and better. Enough now.

Edited January 5, 2022 by supernova

[Lukesluckybunch]

the op was very good! but the control is better

[The Enforcer]

It will be refreshing to see an ensembles chart where the operational run is not almost permanently locked in at the very upper end of the plausible temperature range like the 06z and the umpteen runs that preceeded it:

Although I suspect the 12z will go to the other extreme and be a cold outlier.

Edited January 5, 2022 by The Enforcer

[JBMWeatherForever]

The GFS 12z has been brewing for a little while. The first of many. Seems many have become dispondent by the Christmas coldspell letdown, and now as a consequence many laugh as soon as another cold scenario starts to show itself. That's human nature, but mother nature always has the last laugh.  Severe cold spells often arrive at quite short notice, and the next such cold spell is probably going to arrive much sooner than some think.  Roll on 1947 !!!

[Singularity]

Longer-term shenanigans aside (albeit nice to see my ‘what if the tropospheric imprint splits? for a time?’ musing explored), a slightly interesting shorter-term development caught my eye: The Sunday low slides a bit more cleanly on the 12z GFS compared to prior runs, which leads to more of a high to our east-northeast, which sets up a chillier feed from the near continent into southern UK next week.

Goes to show, fine details can sometimes turn an outlook colder... let’s see if it holds.

[Ali1977]

The ECM also has a snow event Friday just south of the M4

[Hull 1963]

Just now, JBMWeatherForever said:

The GFS 12z has been brewing for a little while. The first of many. Seems many have become dispondent by the Christmas coldspell letdown, and now as a consequence many laugh as soon as another cold scenario starts to show itself. That's human nature, but mother nature always has the last laugh.  Severe cold spells often arrive at quite short notice, and the next such cold spell is probably going to arrive much sooner than some think.  Roll on 1947 !!!

I believe you are right.  I said something similar the other day. I'm old enough to remember cold snowy winters of long ago that came with little warning. Too many people put too much emphasis on model predictions 10 days out or more,  which in my opinion is totally pointless. 10 day weather models are at very best only 50 percent reliable.

[Dancerwithwings]

They are both are at it now, op & control pretty similar, twins even