Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[TSNWK]

22 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Hi yes a very respected person on weather outlook,would take that comment very seriously.

He was a rabid coldie at first in the early days of weatheroutlook about 15 years ago.. however its far more commercial that site  now and I sensed he reigned in the coldie views when there was commercial opportunities in play.. perfectly reasonable.. but deep down the love for cold and snow is still there u suspect..

[goosey007]

3 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

That’ll do

Seen so many of these type charts so far this winter .......maybe one day one will come off law of averages and all that ! maybe 10% chance and that's being generous but I have no actual clue what % chance it is maybe less than 1% ....but non the less the sight of charts like this never ever fail to excite me ! fool that I am lol

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

He was a rabid coldie at first in the early days of weatheroutlook about 15 years ago.. however its far more commercial that site  now and I sensed he reigned in the coldie views when there was commercial opportunities in play.. perfectly reasonable.. but deep down the love for cold and snow is still there u suspect..

Hmm - James Madden and Nathan Rao you cannot get more commercial, and they don't reign in their cold bias!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Hello - is this the model discussion thread? Thought so!

Come on, the team can't be expected to moderate everything; we all have a responsibility to stay on topic so this is a useful resource for everyone. And that includes you (whoever you are). 

[Staffmoorlands]

UKMO 12z not offering us anything cold next week. All eyes are on the end of January now for potential cold.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

UKMO 12z not offering us anything cold next week. All eyes are on the end of January now for potential cold.

As horrendous a chart for cold you could find.

[SqueakheartLW]

Can we have P18 on todays GFS Extended run please. Once it turns cold around mid month it stays pretty much cold right out to the very end of the run.

The thicker higher line is the long term mean whilst the thinner one that dips down below this from around mid month is P18.

+204h

We start here under the influence of high pressure and milder uppers but signs of a more continental feed showing in more southern parts. Sunny and colder in England and Wales. N Ireland and Scotland milder and cloudier.

+228h

It seems the more continental feed is winning out here so sunnier and colder conditions become more widespread over the UK as a result. The Channel Islands get a nice snow event from that passing system over France.

+276h

The high is starting to retrogress here and this heralds the main change to cold on this particular P18 member and it never really looks back after this once it turns cold.

+312h

  The high has retrogressed now and cold Arctic air is moving in and the snow threat becomes bigger in exposed locations.

+360h

At this stage the flows slackens somewhat but also goes easterly too so the east now has the main snow threat here.

+402h

A brief less cold push from the NW but this is only ahead of the next surge of Arctic air making its way down towards the UK.

+462h

Back we go into cold Arctic air again as we get Arctic Blast 2.0. Less cold uppers than the first one but no doubt just as cold due to a covering of snow from the first and already lower temps in situ before it arrived.

+516h

Still under cold uppers here but see those areas of low pressure forming around Iceland. They are going to play a big part in the next couple of charts.

+546h

Low number 1 dives down from Iceland into the UK and with cold uppers and cold air in place we see a widespread snow event push down from the north here. This isn't the last one of these however as that low to the south of Greenland is about to come and play too.

+588h

Low number 2 makes it's appearance here and also dives down through the UK too. This one splits into two parts so two snow events for the price of one here. That's a total of 3 persistent snow events pushing through the UK here but even after this we stay cold and in fact get colder still once the northern part of Low 2 dives to our south.

+648h

Low number 2 settles in to our south and opens the doors to the beasterly part of this run. We bring in colder uppers again and snow showers start coming in off the North Sea too.

+684h

On it goes here but a fly in the ointment is brewing over the Med and this is going to cause a slight warming and thaw in the south for a short while.

+744h

The flow goes more to the SE and this less cold air comes into southern parts at least but fear not, this is only a very brief event as the cold immediately comes back.

+780h

The flow has gone more to the NE again and this pushes the colder air back over the whole UK once more. Even colder air is lurking over the continent but this time the high pressure is too far south so it never really arrives over the UK.

+804h

Milder air is now trying to push in from off the Atlantic but never really gets very far and only N Ireland really gets into this. The rest of the UK is very much in the freezer under that high pressure.

+840h

By the very end of P18 it looks like battleground UK is setting up here. We have brutal cold over the continent, mild air out in the Atlantic and the UK very much stuck between the two. Depending on what happens here we have 3 routes.

1. The typical UK route where the jet stream and the Atlantic simply flatten off the block and the mild air wins. Transient snow event then milder with rain.
2. The mild air attempts to get in but the block proves too strong and hold firm and we stay cold, especially the further east you go.
3. The block pushes further north into Scandi and unleashes that very cold air into the UK. After all the lingering cold from the previous weeks then it wouldn't take much to make it even colder. This is the fantasy dream option and probably the least likely to happen.

P18 is a nice fantasy run which it would be great if it came off but unfortunately there are 30 other members in the extended suite that have totally different outcomes on them to this P18.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

UKMO 12z not offering us anything cold next week. All eyes are on the end of January now for potential cold.

Nothing was really on offer next week, it’s into the 3rd week where we will hopefully get something cold - just after mid month all being well. Hopefully the GFS is still interested in this ridge

 

This UKMO chart is similar to the 144 from the earlier GFS, 4/5 days later could be great all being well.

Edited January 6, 2022 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

Hmmm interesting!!ukmo moves toward gfs in terms of scandi heights!gfs at 102 hours stil sticking to the same theme!can we squeeze a bit more out of this?!!!

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Hmmm interesting!!ukmo moves toward gfs in terms of scandi heights!gfs at 102 hours stil sticking to the same theme!can we squeeze a bit more out of this?!!!

I was thinking that the heights looks slightly further north on the GFS 12r?

[Cold Winter Night]

Stronger Scandi heights on UKMO, here at 120h.

GFS on the same page. It already had more of that, but there too the South Scandi High is stronger and extended further North at 120h.

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

I was thinking that the heights looks slightly further north on the GFS 12r?

What is tricky is the little lows underneath the high!one minute they are there and the next they are gone!!these little cold pools are very tricky to forecast coming in from the continent!!its these that could give that high a kick further north and get in a more continental feed!

[Ali1977]

Here we go, T174 and the PV is starting to relent around Greenland. Now we want a big ridge please

 

12 hours later and the weakening/breaking up of the PV is noticeable although the Canadian section will no doubt scupper proceedings 

Edited January 6, 2022 by Ali1977

[KTtom]

I dont really like this Scandi High building at 120 hrs, its never going to deliver in terms of an easterly, but it does hinder us in terms of getting the PV to the east of the UK and allowing an Atlantic ridge...need to be carefull what you wish for here!

[Ali1977]

Need some WAA up here 

[That ECM]

If you don’t like fi and all it’s fun and frustration, here is the T144 Ukmo for others here’s the gfs where the game may begin.

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Need some WAA up here 

UK high all the way.

[Staffmoorlands]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

If you don’t like fi and all it’s fun and frustration, here is the T144 Ukmo for others here’s the gfs where the game may begin.

Both a long way from any serious cold for us.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Both a long way from any serious cold for us.

Slightly different to any cold. I sense the goal post have been moved 

 

[swfc]

The difference between the gfs 6z and 12z is quite large. The distribution of high pressure on gfs is a bit odd imo

[Valleyboy]

33 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

As horrendous a chart for cold you could find.

Really?  temps dropping slightly, ok not a cold spell but something colder could evolve from that set up.

[geordiekev]

Promising that UKMO has deeper cut off low to bolster the Atlantic High, this was the feature lacking on ECM & only the latest GFS dropped the depths, so looks to be heading towards GFS 0z scenario & we know how that panned out

Edited January 6, 2022 by geordiekev

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Both a long way from any serious cold for us.

Not really, if WAA heads up through Iceland it’ll be game on 

[Nick2373]

2 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Is he a trained forecaster? 

Not sure but his forecasts are spot on and he’s not quick jumping the gun and he don’t get drawn into cold frenzy. And in the past he’s been spot on

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Both a long way from any serious cold for us.

Not that it will be just like that but that would be more than a start