Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Splat…… boom….. that kind of thing

ok..i will have the 2nd chart please! haha

[SqueakheartLW]

CFS 06z has a go at getting us colder around 16th

However typical CFS says no to cold and blasts the Atlantic through by the 21st

Then proceeds to dump a piece of the polar vortex over us by the 24th

High pressure by the end of the month if CFS 06z is to be believed

We enter a 2 week long high pressure bore fest on this run right up to 12th Feb

That is a bore fest if it is a mild, gloomy high like the December one was.

I'll take sunny and frosty over that choice anytime.

A very brief Atlantic attack and I mean very brief on the 14th Feb

Before back we go to a resumption of the high pressure bore fest

Those of you hoping that cold weather can come in time for the end of February, look away now. These are horror show charts coming as the Atlantic blasts back through again and it turns into a late winter storm fest.

After another brief high pressure spell early March the storms are soon back

Then again this is the CFS so what do we expect.

It nearly always goes for raging zonality and ridiculous mild looking charts

Complete

Fabricated

S***

[alexisj9]

Only shows our side on there, looks like the PV parks right above us to the north on those, is that how it looks hemispherically? 

In which case, there would be a big high in the north Pacific.

Just looking at the thickness colours in the lows.

[alexisj9]

40 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

CFS 06z has a go at getting us colder around 16th

However typical CFS says no to cold and blasts the Atlantic through by the 21st

Then proceeds to dump a piece of the polar vortex over us by the 24th

High pressure by the end of the month if CFS 06z is to be believed

We enter a 2 week long high pressure bore fest on this run right up to 12th Feb

That is a bore fest if it is a mild, gloomy high like the December one was.

I'll take sunny and frosty over that choice anytime.

A very brief Atlantic attack and I mean very brief on the 14th Feb

Before back we go to a resumption of the high pressure bore fest

Those of you hoping that cold weather can come in time for the end of February, look away now. These are horror show charts coming as the Atlantic blasts back through again and it turns into a late winter storm fest.

After another brief high pressure spell early March the storms are soon back

Then again this is the CFS so what do we expect.

It nearly always goes for raging zonality and ridiculous mild looking charts

Complete

Fabricated

S***

 

 

 

 

Only shows our side on there, looks like the PV parks right above us to the north on those, is that how it looks hemispherically? 

 

In which case, there would be a big high in the north Pacific.

 

Just looking at the thickness colours in the lows.

Edited January 7, 2022 by alexisj9

[That ECM]

T144 Ukmo. 

[SqueakheartLW]

8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

 

 

 

 

Only shows our side on there, looks like the PV parks right above us to the north on those, is that how it looks hemispherically? 

 

In which case, there would be a big high in the north Pacific.

 

Just looking at the thickness colours in the lows.

This CFS 06z run has the vortex in 1 piece and very much parked in the worst place for cold.

Not much sign of a big Pacific high though.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

T144 Ukmo. 

pretty good imo?

[Staffmoorlands]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

pretty good imo?

Consistent with recent output that next  week will be relatively settled and mild especially in the north and west.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Consistent with recent output that next  week will be relatively settled and mild especially in the north and west.

Yes, but I imagine he means beyond this - again, we know it’s mild for the next 10 days - we are hunting for cold beyond that!! 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Ali1977

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z at T+123, and everything looks as you'd expect, with SW winds blowing of the Atlantic and into NW Europe:

    

Now, it's time to wait for the PV to migrate toward Scandinavia. Always assuming it does!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Yes, but he I imagine he means beyond this - again, we know it’s mild for the next 10 days - we are hunting for cold beyond that!! 

its almost identical ali to the 6z up to this point!

[SqueakheartLW]

GFS has colder uppers into the SE on the 12z vs the 06z

Probably a slightly better continental feed here

[Staffmoorlands]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes, but I imagine he means beyond this - again, we know it’s mild for the next 10 days - we are hunting for cold beyond that!! 

Oh, in that case there is very little to suggest any colder weather at the moment I am afraid to say based on 00z ECM/GFS and 30 day Met outlook. However, we may still get some wintry outbreaks as many have witnessed these last couple of days. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Staffmoorlands

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

its almost identical ali to the 6z up to this point!

It’ll be nice to get the ECM, GEM and GFS all on the same page with a cold day 10 this evening 

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Consistent with recent output that next  week will be relatively settled and mild especially in the north and west.

GFS is pretty average to chilly out to day 7

milder in the north but nothing excessively so.

another stand off with the GFS and the ECM UKMet

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Oh, in that case there is very little to suggest any colder weather at the moment I am afraid to say based on 00z ECM/GFS and 30 day Met outlook. However, we may still get some wintry outbreaks as many have witnessed these last couple of days. 

This will feel very cold with the winds coming from the se

[Battleground Snow]

This area circled is causing the problem and delaying ridging, lows spinning up because of the big temperature gradient in that area.

ECM  had this feature for a couple of days  but dropped it today.

If it goes south east it may act as a trigger low

Edited January 7, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[phil nw.]

The strong jet streak showing to the north on gfs shows why a Scandi.high was never really an option.

Upstream however the Atlantic jet does show to be weakening so with time we see opportunities for some MAR as Blue calls it.

[frosty ground]

day 5 temps if the GFS is right we are going to asking mild? What Mild?

[SqueakheartLW]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

This area circled is causing the problem and delaying ridging, lows spinning up because of the big temperature gradient in that area.

ECM was had this feature for a couple of days  but dropped it today

Then again with the high delayed somewhat from exiting east from the UK it could get squeezed underneath the high to the west and the UK one

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

This will feel very cold with the winds coming from the se

Not sure about very cold.

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

Then again with the high delayed somewhat from exiting east from the UK it could get squeezed underneath the high to the west and the UK one

Yes good spot, I just edited my post to say it may become a trigger low

[Ali1977]

Need to ridge into Greenland now, and pull that low die  to the Azores 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Ali1977

[frosty ground]

Just now, That ECM said:

Not sure about very cold.

Not sure 5000 feet in the air temps are all that relevant under an inversion 

 

[Johnp]

Just now, That ECM said:

Not sure about very cold.

It’s not about 850’s in this scenario.