Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Summerstorm]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

A day 10 chart (again) - it's more promising than mild at day 10 at least. Could just be that the ecm looses resolution by 240h so weakens the Azores. A combination of that and an actual tendency for westwards movement in the Azores is behind that 240h chart. 

Indeed Kasim I will hold some scepticism until we start seeing it being modelled within 5-6 days but one of the better runs it's put out in the last few days. 

Edited January 8, 2022 by Summerstorm

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes it would, just commenting on the earlier frames. Unfortunately frames 168, 192 and 216 hold much more credibility than a standalone 240.

Yeah. D10 ECM is about as useful as a concrete parachute, same with most model op runs at that timeframe to be honest.

We would have had some decent cold spells over the last few years had those D10 ECM charts come off, that's for sure.

Edited January 8, 2022 by CreweCold

[tight isobar]

One has to be lagged- 1 is gonna be flagged!- as again with such dynamics there is going to be toy- and play. Chucking ££ against the American model “ especially after a fail”..is fraught!. We were always going to get gain and catch up with such upper layer shenanigans...hold ya wallet close... and let that roulette wheel spin a few more times

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Indeed Kasim I will hold some scepticism until we start seeing it being modelled within 5-6 days but one of the better runs it's put out in the last few days. 

I do think we will see some westwards movement of the Azores towards the mid Atlantic / Greenland. Whether that corresponds with a lowering of heights though, something that is needed if this pattern was anything more than a two day toppler or 5 days of high pressure before westerlies again. This lowering of heights is something to bear in mind when looking at output post 168h.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[E17boy]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Yeah. D10 ECM is about as useful as a concrete parachute.

We would have had some decent cold spells over the last few years had those D10 ECM charts come off, that's for sure.

Totally agree with that comment and goes along my thoughts about day 10 charts which I commented on in my post this morning . As said until I don’t see anything within the 3 days then my excitement will be held back. Many a times we have been here  the lack of confidence 10 days away is not worth the heartache.  

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Why would day 10 lose the Azores high vs day 8 or 9 ? Surely it’s just the data that’s predicting this evolution (right or wrong) nothing to do with resolution. Or does the ECM actually lose resolution at day 10 vs day 9?? 

All models loose reliability with time as the number of possible incorrect outcomes increases over time.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

All models loose reliability with time as the number of possible incorrect outcomes increases over time.

The eventual retraction of the Azores high to join the forming Atlantic ridge was obvious at T192 if you looked on NH view.  

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

All models loose reliability with time as the number of possible incorrect outcomes increases over time.

Think of it as leaving an individual who is semi familiar with an area to drive from A to B. With each incorrect turn they take (over time), the path deviates further from the correct route. Eventually so many turns are incorrect that the path resembles nothing like the most effective one.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

The eventual retraction of the Azores high to join the forming Atlantic ridge was obvious at T192 if you looked on NH view.  

The build of pressure from 216 to 240 east of Newfoundland looks unrealistically fast to me. Still, there's a little bit of interest in the potential for a well positioned mid Atlantic ridge but as I said we need to loose Azores and Iberian heights.

[chris55]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

All models loose reliability with time as the number of possible incorrect outcomes increases over time.

Reliability yes, but you said ‘resolution’.

I’m pretty sure ECM op doesn’t lose resolution at 240.

big difference in the two terms  

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

The build of pressure from 216 to 240 east of Newfoundland looks unrealistically fast to me. Still, there's a little bit of interest in the potential for a well positioned mid Atlantic ridge but as I said we need to loose Azores and Iberian heights.

That’s as may be, I was taking the earlier part of the run as read, and from T192 the evolution looks eminently sensible to me.  

[O'Maille80]

A glimmer of hope today for coldies with the Gfs ens dropping temperatures after mid month and an interesting ECM run to boot. Big runs coming up in the next few days to see if we have a hunt on our hands.

[Purga]

The ECM D10 Op v PARA is not without interest...

[O'Maille80]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

The ECM D10 Op v PARA is not without interest...

23rd of October 2021?

[Don]

2 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

23rd of October 2021?

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Think of it as leaving an individual who is semi familiar with an area to drive from A to B. With each incorrect turn they take (over time), the path deviates further from the correct route. Eventually so many turns are incorrect that the path resembles nothing like the most effective one.

You’re spitting in your own face with such evaluations! Meteorology is the most “non exact science of the science script “.. and that Alone is a big part of why both ME.. and you are having this conversation. Stick with the American wild card on this... she only falls limited times.@ major global RAW

[northwestsnow]

This all looks very complex ...

Day 10 is a beauty .. but as others have said,let's wait to see that chart at day 5 ,or 3

The EC suite will perhaps reveal more.

[Kasim Awan]

13 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Reliability yes, but you said ‘resolution’.

I’m pretty sure ECM op doesn’t lose resolution at 240.

big difference in the two terms  

The two have some cross-over.

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

You’re spitting in your own face with such evaluations! Meteorology is the most “non exact science of the science script “.. and that Alone is a big part of why both ME.. and you are having this conversation. Stick with the American wild card on this... she only falls limited times.@ major global RAW

Sorry mate didn't get any of that..

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240, big change since last couple of runs:

Clusters 1 and 2 firmly Atlantic ridge, scandi trough and look very good for a UK cold plunge (total 23 members), cluster 1 slower to retract the Azores than cluster 2, so no surprise the op is in cluster 1.  Cluster 4, also Atlantic ridge, but the high possibly a bit close the UK.  Cluster 3 attempts heights into Scandi, I think this is a solution that is decreasing now in probability, and 5 has the block too far west.  But nothing remotely zonal (for those of you still of that view) on any of them.  Very promising as we move forward towards this chase proper…

[chris55]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The two have some cross-over.

Not in the context you quoted me with though. 

Any day 10 chart will lose reliability, but not every day 10 chart loses resolution.

I think GFS reduces resolution at day 10 onwards. Hence the term FI. 

Important to clarify. 

 
 

 

Edited January 8, 2022 by chris55

[Ali1977]

The 10 day mean much more “ridge like”, as Mike has pointed out in the clusters

Edited January 8, 2022 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters T192-T240, big change since last couple of runs:

Clusters 1 and 2 firmly Atlantic ridge, scandi trough and look very good for a UK cold plunge (total 23 members), cluster 1 slower to retract the Azores than cluster 2, so no surprise the op is in cluster 1.  Cluster 4, also Atlantic ridge, but the high possibly a bit close the UK.  Cluster 3 attempts heights into Scandi, I think this is a solution that is decreasing now in probability, and 5 has the block too far west.  But nothing remotely zonal (for those of you still of that view) on any of them.  Very promising as we move forward towards this chase proper…

Interesting !!

Thanks for posting Mike.

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T264+

And, well,  the 20 member Atlantic ridge cluster 1 - we will take all you’ve got of those !

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

The mean much more “ridge like”, as Mike has pointed out in the clusters

Better mean.

Need to see the momentum continue tomorrow..