Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Kasim Awan]

Much more likely to see this type of behaviour than the ecm 12z imo. I think downgrades could occur (if that's even possible), if models yet again underplay the strength of the Azores high. Still a little bit of interest, tho I think we're dealing with phantom cold spells here sadly.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, the Canadian PV has just gone crazy again - let’s hope FI is exactly that , and completely wrong!! 
It’s still fairly different from the ECM so we are nine the wiser really.
 

Problem is the PV is forecast to remain on steroids for the foreseaable, so perhaps likely to continue being the spoiler, preventing anything other than cold snaps for the UK?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Similar thing to what we see time and again- vortex draining into Canada and USA. You'll struggle to see cold establish here with that sort of pattern

[Singularity]

As I wrote earlier, the Pacific v Indian Ocean forcing balance is key. GFS/GEFS are favouring a weakening or total cessation of the Pacific forcing, so the Indian Ocean forcing reigns supreme with inflated subtropical highs.

ECM & EPS are leaning the other way in the 8-14 day period but have some weakening of the Pacific forcing before then. So, the subtropical high is bolstered next week, but then there’s a tendency to try and move it fully west or northwest of the UK. For those in England & Wales who like it colder and brighter, it’s fortunate that the Sun-Mon lows disrupt just about enough to set up a varied, light surface flow Tue-Wed with some breaks in the cloud, facilitating inversion development with later-week Atlantic air riding over the top.

Honestly, there’s no really confident way to call what happens in the 3rd week of the month. Using persistence from recent weeks promotes the weaker Pacific forcing outcome but the alternative can’t be ruled out. Maybe 1 in 3 chance at this stage.

Even if it happens, it’s probably not going to be a long cold spell, unless the MJO-like signal becomes surprisingly strong by late Jan.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

As I wrote earlier, the Pacific v Indian Ocean forcing balance is key. GFS/GEFS are favouring a weakening or total cessation of the Pacific forcing, so the Indian Ocean forcing reigns supreme with inflated subtropical highs.

ECM & EPS are leaning the other way in the 8-14 day period but have some weakening of the Pacific forcing before then. So, the subtropical high is bolstered next week, but then there’s a tendency to try and move it fully west or northwest of the UK. For those in England & Wales who like it colder and brighter, it’s fortunate that the Sun-Mon lows disrupt just about enough to set up a varied, light surface flow Tue-Wed with some breaks in the cloud, facilitating inversion development with later-week Atlantic air riding over the top.

Honestly, there’s no really confident way to call what happens in the 3rd week of the month. Using persistence from recent weeks promotes the weaker Pacific forcing outcome but the alternative can’t be ruled out. Maybe 1 in 3 chance at this stage.

Even if it happens, it’s probably not going to be a long cold spell, unless the MJO-like signal becomes surprisingly strong by late Jan.

Yup, the Pacific / Arctic area heavily favoures inflation of the sub tropical high (hadley cell). Unfortunately a persistent, influential feature always outweights an inconsistent, weak feature. I'd agree with 1 in 3 chance too, but think the modelling of an optimal westwards retraction of the Azores high seen on the ecm is more a result of less effective modelling of hadley cell mechanisms at these extended ranges.

[Battleground Snow]

Control looking good and more like the ECM, hoping the OP was an outlier as was a bit rubbish.

 

[Kasim Awan]

I still think a temporary, albeit potent toppler quite like the late November 2021 event is possible due to the slight amplification signal and strong signal for a pv shift east blending to produce a mid Atlantic ridge and potent northerly into northern Europe. Gfs 18z control has this.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

I still think a temporary, albeit potent toppler quite like the late November 2021 event is possible due to the slight amplification signal and strong signal for a pv shift east blending to produce a mid Atlantic ridge and potent northerly into northern Europe. Gfs 18z control haw this.

Like yourself, I rate a toppler as 50/50. Not really what you hope for in January but given the state of proceedings at the moment, we'd take it.

[MJB]

I'd settle for this 

[Don]

14 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I still think a temporary, albeit potent toppler quite like the late November 2021 event is possible due to the slight amplification signal and strong signal for a pv shift east blending to produce a mid Atlantic ridge and potent northerly into northern Europe. Gfs 18z control has this.

Late November 2021 delivered a little snow to the south, so hopefully with further cooling in the Arctic and more sea ice, the south could do ok with at least some short lived snow in a potent toppler?!

Edited January 8, 2022 by Don

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Late November 2021 delivered a little snow to the south, so hopefully with further cooling in the Arctic and more sea ice, the south could do ok with at least some short lived snow in a potent toppler?!

Yeah 50/50 for a decent toppler sometime rest of Jan. It's a lottery down south in a toppler even here we rely on a decent trough in the flow. Needs a bit more of a northeasterly component to spawn the trough when the Azores is so strong, as the Azores prevent features sliding into the south. Not really seeing this northeasterly trough like November 2021.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Late November 2021 delivered a little snow to the south, so hopefully with further cooling in the Arctic and more sea ice, the south could do ok with at least some short lived snow in a potent toppler?!

P4 is the potent toppler we want

[Don]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah 50/50 for a decent toppler sometime rest of Jan. It's a lottery down south in a toppler even here we rely on a decent trough in the flow. Needs a bit more of a northeasterly component to spawn the trough when the Azores is so strong. 

Topplers are usually hopeless for the south but occasionally deliver with January 30th 2003 being a great example and to a far lesser extent 27/28th November 2021.

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

P4 is the potent toppler we want

 

Yep, that should bring us southerners well into the game! 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Don said:

Topplers are usually hopeless for the south but occasionally deliver with January 30th 2003 being a great example and to a far lesser extent 27/28th November 2021.

Yeah you need it to be a toppler with a northeasterly component like last year or one with a trough caught up in the flow from the Atlantic.

[blizzard81]

Good to see some realism on here tonight. Its got to be said that the best we can hope for is some cold maritime north westerlies from time to time. Nothing more than that. 

[Battleground Snow]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Good to see some realism on here tonight. Its got to be said that the best we can hope for is some cold maritime north westerlies from time to time. Nothing more than that. 

A 3-4 day cold transient spell does seem favourite at the moment, but there is a big enough cold cluster showing for more.

There is a hell a lot of water to pass under the bridge untill we get to day 9 and 10.

I guess we would all take a 3 day cold spell with a decent fall if offered right now though

 

[kumquat]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

Control looking good and more like the ECM, hoping the OP was an outlier as was a bit rubbish.

 

This is a formidable chart. If we get to here all hell could break loose.

[kumquat]

48 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Good to see some realism on here tonight. Its got to be said that the best we can hope for is some cold maritime north westerlies from time to time. Nothing more than that. 

Anything plus 144 is game.

 

Edit: I hope we get some sunny skies and frosts. Ice on the pond. Then look again.

Edited January 9, 2022 by kumquat

[northwestsnow]

EC looks chilly again this morning...

Edited January 9, 2022 by northwestsnow

[mulzy]

ECM day 8 is reasonably good in my books.  Can that trough to the NW of Iceland dive south east instead of phasing with the main trough over Russia?  The next two frames will reveal all but at day 8 ECM is not bad!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mulzy said:

ECM day 8 is reasonably good in my books.  Can that trough to the NW of Iceland dive south east instead of phasing with the main trough over Russia?  The next two frames will reveal all but at day 8 ECM is not bad!

Not seen the surface temps yet but it looks seasonal at least.. 

[KTtom]

Very frustrating to have an Atlantic profile primed for a significant ridge north only for yet another low to exit Canada and ride over the top...need one of these to track up the western side of Greenland as opposed to west to east brfore we see a signicant change for the better...

[Battleground Snow]

GFS op still not wanting to play ball, ensembles huge scatter, but still has that cold cluster.

216 ECM fairly similar to yesterday, Azores high less of an issue on this run, good profile around Canada  too

Edited January 9, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[northwestsnow]

So close by day 9...

anyway , I'm sure this is a cold run at  the surface regardless..

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So close by day 9...

anyway , I'm sure this is a cold run at  the surface regardless..

Indeed NWS, the ECM is the best (for coldies) of the models at day 8 plus for sure.  Pumping up the ridge over Europe didn't help at day 9 though!

Edited January 9, 2022 by mulzy