Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

One thing that fascinates me this Winter is the depth of cold to our North. Even the slightest Northerly is immediately bringing us into -8 type uppers!! This hasn't been the case for many years with Northerlys lacking bite...

I think it's only a matter of time that a full on Northerly will bring us some real cold conditions

Agreed, even storm Arwen showed that .

Going forward I think one or two cold flows are possible as per 06z , and if they occur the cold will be biting but transitory and very welcome for coldies.  However, for something to change and produce more longevity in this kind of set up I think we’ll need a diving SE / SSE LP followed quickly by another (as potent) one…like shifting the PV (or large segment of) to our ENE and allowing the AZH to ridge/move North.  I’m thinking this is going to happen (towards month’s end) and if it happens I think they’ll be some storms…..indeed though, as has happened before, it could all happen too far east and AZH could be too influential.  The start of the period is at outer GFS limits so pie in the sky at the moment.  
I’d like GFS to be right around 17th, those are decent cold uppers

 BFTP

Edited January 9, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[minus10]

Well i have seen worse gfs runs:

Dry frosty weather (hopefully )

Followed by brief but quite potent northerly

Followed by nw cool/cold zonality

I know it wont be like that but at least these option are on the table...

[Northernlights]

57 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Yes. Sea ice around Svalbard is 10% up on the 1990-2020 long term average. Haven’t seen that for a long time. 

Yes as it should be at this time of year and why I expect a cold spring especially in the North of Scotland

[Ali1977]

Is the Op a trend setter or wil it prove to be an outlier on the 12z’s!! The FI mean not as cold as yesterday’s, but we need to get the medium term nailed down first!! 

[booferking]

If you want proper HLB weather your guaranteed to get it in spring every year without fail.

[MJB]

4 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

Yes it has and just shows what a load of nonsense that measure is for gauging the liklihood of HLB.

Over the past 20 years of Internet weather watching we have seen many winter weather forecast fads come and go and most of them were just useless tools, the MJO is just the latest.

I liked the one we had in the 1980's called the BDC, it stood for Bloody Damn Cold!

Andy

So where does this theory come from because clearly 7/8 of the MJO need a lot more help , what and where does the support come from , has anyone got any ideas. We also have the Easterly QBO that can be favourable but it seems these two are nowhere near enough . 

British weather eh ? You just couldn't make it up

Edited January 9, 2022 by MJB

[Battleground Snow]

12 minutes ago, MJB said:

So where does this theory come from because clearly 7/8 of the MJO need a lot more help , what and where does the support come from , has anyone got any ideas. We also have the Easterly QBO that can be favourable but it seems these two are nowhere near enough . 

British weather eh ? You just couldn't make it up

La Nina probably the dominant teleconnection overriding the others, warm Atlantic SST's probably not helping either, interacting with frigid cold pools spilling out of north America keeping the jet powerful and to our North

We did get a HLB back in December, albeit briefly and weak, like a SSW, blocking has to transpire in the right place for tiny island of the UK.

The one liners dismissing it as a tool are naive, it wouldn't be used by meteorological agencies around the world from America to Australia if it didn't affect anything.

@Singularity explained it better technically earlier. Bottom line it gives you much better odds of hitting a HLB, but nothing is ever certain.

[Summer Snow]

3 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

One thing that fascinates me this Winter is the depth of cold to our North. Even the slightest Northerly is immediately bringing us into -8 type uppers!! This hasn't been the case for many years with Northerlys lacking bite...

I think it's only a matter of time that a full on Northerly will bring us some real cold conditions

Yes was looking back at charts from last years early Jan cold spell when we had winds from the north and the east.......af face value charts look excellent but the 850hpa temps were pathetic..... much better cold to tap in to this year....

[NorthYorksWeather]

6 minutes ago, Summer Snow said:

Yes was looking back at charts from last years early Jan cold spell when we had winds from the north and the east.......af face value charts look excellent but the 850hpa temps were pathetic..... much better cold to tap in to this year....

Indeed last January we seemed to have good Synoptics but poor 850hpa temps and then this year we seem to have the very cold air nearby but can’t get the pressure pattern to tap into it.

[Lukesluckybunch]

very excited to see if the 12z follows in same way as the 6z,in send heights northward up west side of greenland!the 6z was quite similar to the oz icon except it was better version.

[fromey]

18 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

very excited to see if the 12z follows in same way as the 6z,in send heights northward up west side of greenland!the 6z was quite similar to the oz icon except it was better version.

I wouldn’t get your hopes up, reading what some of the more experienced members have written this looks to be  2-3 day thing before it topples. Then back to walking up the garden path again 

[SqueakheartLW]

Here's the latest model output is showing for the 15th to 19th January 2022

15th

16th

17th

18th

19th

If only it was

Instead we have to make do with this northerly toppler in comparison from the GFS for example.

15th

16th

17th

18th

19th

This is about as good as it gets for winter 2021/2022 unfortunately and charts like those from mid December 2010 are nothing more than a distant memory now and a nice winter fantasy.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, fromey said:

I wouldn’t get your hopes up, reading what some of the more experienced members have written this looks to be  2-3 day thing before it topples. Then back to walking up the garden path again 

yes thats what its looking like at the moment, but lets hope we can get the same plunge from the north at around the 180 mark..even its on 2/3 days

Edited January 9, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
spelling

[tight isobar]

45 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Here's the latest model output is showing for the 15th to 19th January 2022

15th

16th

17th

18th

19th

If only it was

Instead we have to make do with this northerly toppler in comparison from the GFS for example.

15th

16th

17th

18th

19th

This is about as good as it gets for winter 2021/2022 unfortunately and charts like those from mid December 2010 are nothing more than a distant memory now and a nice winter fantasy.

The issue (or indeed non issue) is that given the top hemstate once we do finally draw and gain overheads of given Synoptics- then the door is ajar for further evolvement. Watch if/ when we get to 0/24 hrs out with given Synoptics.. I think output will start to look - and indeed play out quite differently!

Edited January 9, 2022 by tight isobar

[Lukesluckybunch]

UKMO looks ok to me...what you guys think?

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

UKMO looks ok to me...what you guys think?

Doesn't look too interesting to me. Atlantic Ridge not getting anywhere near the south tip of Greenland and positively tilted.

Would end up with a UK high I think. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Doesn't look too interesting to me. Atlantic Ridge not getting anywhere near the south tip of Greenland and positively tilted.

Would end up with a UK high I think. 

thats true,woudnt surprise me to a UK high then hopefully a 2nd attempt at greenland! lets see what gfs says

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

UKMO looks ok to me...what you guys think?

I think it might be ok, flick between 120 and 144 the WAA seems to shoot north quickly. Drop the little low towards the Azores and the ridge may gain traction into Greenland 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Ali1977

[Battleground Snow]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

UKMO looks ok to me...what you guys think?

Low pops out on the ukmo, compared to the GFS where it's kept below the high, so the GFS will probably go on to have the high in a more favourable place

[Ali1977]

The GFS at 132 isn’t looking like following as quickly as the 06z into a northerly, looking at heights around Labrador - next few frames we shall see though.

[Lukesluckybunch]

nothing like the 6z im affraid,not the best run!

[January Snowstorm]

Back to square one on the 12s with no ridging North of the high with the jet running over the top!!

Nuff said lol

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

nothing like the 6z im affraid,not the best run!

The 06z was always a bit strange bringing it in so quick, we were down to about day 9 where we need to look. Possible ridge into Greenland now, depending on PV breaking to the north West of Greenland 

Edit - it looks a struggle so far

Sod’s law we’ll see better ENS this run  

Edited January 9, 2022 by Ali1977

[IDO]

...the 06z op was a clear outlier at D8-9, the coldest in the ensemble, so was very unlikely to be repeated:

The 12z seems progressive with the flattening so not sure that is the solution either. The models seem to struggle with these setups so no definitive solution for that time frame yet. Though the best we can get looks like a transient colder 24-48 hours somewhere between D8-10.

[That ECM]

There’s the problem imo.