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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model-based discussion.  Some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less chat and a more straight-up model discussion take a look at the alternate model discussion. 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

An op shouldn’t be ignored at day 10, but I’ll be ignoring this one and looking for a better set of ENS. GEM running, will see what that does too.

We’ve been unlucky, I’m just hoping around day 6/7 flips cold in the coming 24 hours and set up a good enough ridge that flops over to an easterly. I know the METO aren’t seeing it, but you never know. 

1B32DDEB-8352-420F-BB2F-534D3DAEA5A2.png

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

12Z GFS Op is not good viewing but let's see where it sits in the ENS before making judgement 

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted

well its as flat as a pancake this run...looks as though we need to get the initial attempt at ridging correct,to get the potential of somthing better afterwards also.otherwise we just keep seeing the vortex rotating around greenland

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

With the NE of the USA about to go in to a deep freeze no doubt it will fire up the jet stream and any HLB is a gonna. 
 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Day 6 Control looks more like the 06z Op, possibly!! 

A73D3998-654E-48A4-8F5B-1A18FCB53E8E.png

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted
1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

well its as flat as a pancake this run...looks as though we need to get the initial attempt at ridging correct,to get the potential of somthing better afterwards also.otherwise we just keep seeing the vortex rotating around greenland

By the 20th jan it’s looking like the PV is in the perfect position, no HLB will be able to get established 

FB9E7A2B-65B6-4190-80D1-A58C0932D5AE.jpeg

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swilliam Enthusiast

swilliam

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
Posted
39 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Doesn't look too interesting to me. Atlantic Ridge not getting anywhere near the south tip of Greenland and positively tilted.

Would end up with a UK high I think. 

Nothing like that fortunately and yes it does look interesting. Very different treatment of the small low in mid Atlantic

 

ukmo-0-168 (2).png

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

We are so close to a good northerly at day 8/9.The Atlantic high just needing a little more ridging as the trough digs south over Scandinavia.

gfsnh-1-198.thumb.png.eae9e51405edc354c6881d70a1df60f0.png

Some bitter cold very close to us.We know it will likely be brief but that is some cold showing there.

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
8 minutes ago, swilliam said:

Nothing like that fortunately and yes it does look interesting. Very different treatment of the small low in mid Atlantic

 

ukmo-0-168 (2).png

It's all semantic,  but I would say that's very much heading for a UK high. You can see the two areas of HP about to join over the borders. 

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Well it seems at 168 or so the low coming off eastern seaboard goes ene in 12z as opposed to north in 6z, resulting in flattening of potential northerly producing high as much less waa up western side

718405548_h850t850eu(76).thumb.png.098e18f0f0b106d0b33b6f05fa638aac.png

31375899_h850t850eu(75).thumb.png.1c2965e85a6d9a393b5d16c9128779ea.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

I’ve cherry picked P22, similar to the earlier Op and possibly our best option moving forward. Day 5 the heights start forming near Labrador/Newfoundland and they manage to find a gap to a decent latitude in the NH, importantly to the West of Greenland.

B80DB8AE-8A2B-4CC7-B701-745616D396E8.png

B71F453A-E89F-458E-AE7C-8B1DD463A404.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Staffmoorlands Community Regular

Staffmoorlands

Posted
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
  • Location: Biddulph, Staffordshire Moorlands 750f ABSL
Posted (edited)

Reviewing the 12z UKMO, Operational GFS, ICON & GEM and in my view we are still at least 10 days away from any cold spell for the south. Maybe some wintry spells for the north at best. Grim times but the ECM later may offer some hope?

Edited by Staffmoorlands
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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
6 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

One thing that fascinates me this Winter is the depth of cold to our North. Even the slightest Northerly is immediately bringing us into -8 type uppers!! This hasn't been the case for many years with Northerlys lacking bite...

I think it's only a matter of time that a full on Northerly will bring us some real cold conditions

image.thumb.png.49134051fab9b4e5aa243b7ce3471cde.png

Agree any northerlies even north westerlies will have added potency this year than recently given the depth of cold that was allowed to build through Autumn. We saw evidence of this in late November.

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
2 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

Indeed last January we seemed to have good Synoptics but poor 850hpa temps and then this year we seem to have the very cold air nearby but can’t get the pressure pattern to tap into it.

Feels more like a traditional winter..  early cold bottles itself up in the arctic first.. spills out our way on occasion second half and right through Spring...

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

GEM looks ok with the PV shunted east and pressure rising over Greenland ,along with some very cold uppers ready to flood south.. 

BC09932A-A8B4-49A5-9592-02D8E258E8B3.png

F9A77796-09FC-46F9-BD56-A94E6769C3A1.png

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E17boy Seasoned

E17boy

Posted
Posted

Hi peeps,

My take on things today so far. Unfortunately I am not going to straw clutch or look ahead at 10 days away. If I was to be honest I cannot still see any prolonged cold on the charts nor can I see anything that us coldies are looking for ie nationwide snow and subzero temperatures. I would really be giving myself false hope if I was going to say that yes in 10 days time something is afoot.

On the other hand if you are one of those that will be satisfied with a 2  day cold northerly or northwesterly then yes maybe there is something on offer regarding this but even that is no guarantee at this point of time. This option if it does come to fruition may only properly benefit the further north you are whilst here in the south like London it will probably be crumbs we pick up.

So that’s my thoughts for today, unfortunately I am not seeing anything worth while building for what most of us are waiting for. Things may change in the coming days as so often the weather does, but for now the waiting goes on.

take care all 

regards

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted

Nice dry run almost right through the GFS 12z where I live in the south east but dreadful for anything remotely cold only exception maybe in the far north at times...still getting the feeling that January will be a write-off.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Been off here for a week or so. Anyway I'm still not seeing anything remotely wintry ie exciting. I'm a lover of cold, snowy weather but is there anything on the nhp or synoptics wise showing anything?? I'm not a downbeat person and love a hunt for cold but really

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Been off here for a week or so. Anyway I'm still not seeing anything remotely wintry ie exciting. I'm a lover of cold, snowy weather but is there anything on the nhp or synoptics wise showing anything?? I'm not a downbeat person and love a hunt for cold but really

If you count a 36 hour toppler in that.

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Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

Evening all,GFS looking flat with high pressure dominating,but GEFS ensembles has operational at the upper 

runs with still plenty of members dropping into the -10c so lot’s will change again on the 18z.Let’s see how 

ECM looks later probably maintaining high pressure,England especially could stay in the cold zone with

some clear skies freezing fog and frost.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

If you count a 36 hour toppler in that.

Is that it Kasim. Plus seasonal temps and frost. Angel of death take me now!!!

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