Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Cuban Zebra]

As the name says we’re hunting for cold in this thread, looking at the 12z the best place to find cold would be in your freezer in the next 3 weeks! Indeed, anywhere south of the M62 looks being devoid of anything of note in the same timeframe!

The vortex is roaming that quick it seems that as soon as it leaves Canada it’s back, supercharging the jet in the process!

 

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Is that it Kasim. Plus seasonal temps and frost. Angel of death take me now!!!

Seasonal temps and frost look likely. The pattern looks quite poor for snow though

[swfc]

Does the "hunt for cold thread" not mean snow, biting winds and sub zero days. If its just temps, inversion cold I really give up folks 

[CoxR]

chances of a deep and prolonged cold spell seem to be getting progressively downgraded within the GFS ensembles unfortunately 

[swfc]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Seasonal temps and frost look likely. The pattern looks quite poor for snow though

OK thanks, thought we were in this for a snowy outlook and cold. Oh spoke to Scott, he's OK boss x

[snowblizzard]

8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Nice dry run almost right through the GFS 12z where I live in the south east but dreadful for anything remotely cold only exception maybe in the far north at times...still getting the feeling that January will be a write-off.

Yes, I have the same feeling about January and with NE USA about to go into deep freeze doesn't bode well!

February has been disappointing in recent years, perhaps this one will provide a nice surprise for cold lovers?

But, I recon we will once again see cold air arrive over UK early Spring when we don't really want it.  

[Kasim Awan]

Somewhat interesting to see a tendency for the Azores high to push west tho.

[weathercold]

16 minutes ago, swfc said:

Been off here for a week or so. Anyway I'm still not seeing anything remotely wintry ie exciting. I'm a lover of cold, snowy weather but is there anything on the nhp or synoptics wise showing anything?? I'm not a downbeat person and love a hunt for cold but really

It’s desperate at the moment- zero signs of any sustained cold, barely even 24 hrs of cold in the next 7-10 days.

 

[Ali1977]

Lots of negativity here which I guess looking at the charts is east to see why , however the action starts as the high moving in over the U.K. starts to move West - this is between day 7-9 and still pretty much in FI!!  
 

If we had a cold spell forecast at day 7-9 all those negative types will say it will fail and won’t happen, well maybe this lack of ridging will be wrong too and we’ll end up with a monster ridge and brutal northerly.
 

Over to the ECM to put some cheers back into this forum ️

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

I my opinion . Anything can change within 96hrs sometimes less from mild south westerly to a raging easterly especially this year with the model struggles . Don't worry if it currently doesn't look good for cold. The severe cold won't stay up north forever and when it eventually does drop south we are definitely going to know about it this year. We all need to be patient and take every run with a pinch of salt. I'm not too worried about the 12z has by tonight it will have changed again. Seen enough in the early ens to be confident it's not sorted out yet. 96hrs is fantasy island for me. And anything after is very much up for grabs. Mid month in my opinion will be the turning point to our winter. 

[Eagle Eye]

A reminder to how wrong models can be, don't think I'd mind if this had happened in January last year (or this year) though, be a bit chilly  

Edited January 9, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[NewEra21]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Possibility of some wintry showers in northern Scotland by around the 16th Jan.

You know things are looking poor when we're even mentioning the possibility of wintry showers in Scotland 7 days away

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

You know things are looking poor when we're even mentioning the possibility of wintry showers in Scotland 7 days away

One day, one time, this winter or not, a nationwide heavy snow event will hit the UK.

[Kasim Awan]

Let's see if the ecm can throw out a decent mid Atlantic ridge.

[sukayuonsensnow]

36 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Yes, I have the same feeling about January and with NE USA about to go into deep freeze doesn't bode well!

February has been disappointing in recent years, perhaps this one will provide a nice surprise for cold lovers?

But, I recon we will once again see cold air arrive over UK early Spring when we don't really want it.  

The seasonal forecasts all lean towards an interesting February at least.

1-5 Feb Unsettled and mild

5-15 Feb Low pressure gives way to cold E/NE bringing cold weather and some significant snow for some (Not necessarily all) Uncertainty on the timing but somewhere around 5-7 Feb the transition takes place

16-28 Feb Turns less cold/mild from the southwest, perhaps preceded by snow as the rain bumps into cold air. Turns very mild or potentially warm by end of month, as seems to be tradition in recent Februarys, a very cold/very mild end to month.

[mountain shadow]

32 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

I my opinion . Anything can change within 96hrs sometimes less from mild south westerly to a raging easterly especially this year with the model struggles . Don't worry if it currently doesn't look good for cold. The severe cold won't stay up north forever and when it eventually does drop south we are definitely going to know about it this year. We all need to be patient and take every run with a pinch of salt. I'm not too worried about the 12z has by tonight it will have changed again. Seen enough in the early ens to be confident it's not sorted out yet. 96hrs is fantasy island for me. And anything after is very much up for grabs. Mid month in my opinion will be the turning point to our winter. 

It's your opinion and you're entitled to it, however, in my opinion it is completely wrong. 

On a macro scale FI is not 96 hours. How do we know? Because the computer models tell us so. The chance of a raging Easterly in 96 hours is 0%.

Based on model output, nothing much is set to change mid month. 

There is zero proper cold on offer.

Edited January 9, 2022 by mountain shadow

[Battleground Snow]

Hmmm Low underneath supporting the high here, if the rest of the Canadian lobe can move across at 168-192, the ridge may be able to get to Greenland

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Hmmm Low underneath supporting the high here, if the rest of the Canadian lobe can move across at 168-192, the ridge may be able to get to Greenland

i agree we neeed that low across new foundland no move north.not east and flatten the high out!

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 06/01/2022 at 00:49, CreweCold said:

Getting the PV away from the Greenland/Canadian locale is only half the battle (and I'm still not fully convinced it will shift long enough to be of any use to us anyway).

History tells us that what usually happens is a larger segment than anticipated is left over which then allows the jet to power up across the top of any HP. What looks good at D10+ often doesn't look so rosy come T0.

If I was seeing something, anything to support forcing for a HLB manifestation I could perhaps tentatively go along with it. As things stand I'm seeing nothing.

Sorry to quote myself but this is where experience comes in, just as @mountain shadow has been saying. You save yourself a lot of stress and heartache if you can pre-empt these things.

[That ECM]

T168. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

this is crunch time on ECM will the high escape at 192 northwest,im not so sure myself..the ECM is trying to move the whole PV to scandi 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[Kasim Awan]

Ecm trying at 168h it's clear that there's a signal for blocking, Azores too strong tho.

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Ecm trying at 168h it's clear that there's a signal for blocking, Azores too strong tho.

120 FI, with that low interaction

[SqueakheartLW]

40 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

A reminder to how wrong models can be, don't think I'd mind if this had happened in January last year (or this year) though, be a bit chilly  

That's what we like to see, -26C everywhere at 2m.

The control run says the new ice age has already started

Soon the Atlantic will be freezing over.

Then no more worrying about zonal westerlies being mild ever again.

Bring on the ice age I say

[Lukesluckybunch]

its a sinking feeling again on the ECM at 192! very frustrating