Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Battleground Snow]

A bit better from the 06z WAA going up, might make the high a bit more robust this run

[sheikhy]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Tomorrow looks cloud dominated on UKV high-res, but by Tuesday clearer skies gradually work south with cloud coming back in for the north. Could see some frosts this coming week if skies clear overnight and winds are light.

Ooh that looks very good!!hopefully some ice days and very cold minimum temps by night!!

[Ali1977]

Up you go, keep it going !! 

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Up you go, keep it going !! 

 Cold in by 180, small changes in earlier time frames made a big difference later on this run

Edited January 9, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Up you go, keep it going !! 

It’s the god darn Azores high again that I think will screw this chase up.

[Ali1977]

That’s cold for everyone, very cold. Can it link with the other heights a prolong it 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Ali1977

[TSNWK]

Just now, TSNWK said:

It’s the god darn Azores high again that I think will screw this chase up.

But maybe not cold in and the Azores heights have tipped upwards and heading north.. could be fun in a mo

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

But maybe not cold in and the Azores heights have tipped upwards and heading north.. could be fun in a mo

Will it be supported by the ENS , it’s nearly medium  range 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The ever optimistic 06z.  Lots to like about the synopsis …but is it too soon?

 

BFTP

[Purga]

Very nice so far

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The ever optimistic 06z.  Lots to like about the synopsis …but is it too soon?

 

BFTP

17th has been signposted for a while from the gefs, this will be a run from the cold cluster, hopefully it's a bigger cluster now

Edited January 9, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[IDO]

Better belling and shape to the high compared with the 0z so we get a northerly flow and a feed of colder uppers. Need the pattern to shift west for the UK to get some snow from the sliding low to the east:

0z>  06z> 

Hopefully a trend but more likely the two extremes and T0 will meet in the middle?

[TSNWK]

This is a very good day 8 chart.. deep cold in.. heights robust to the west and still nudging towards Greenland and vortex left over north east Canada had slight negative tilt which should encourage further WAAcover Greenland for those s heights to keep going.

[legritter]

Nice gfs run gang ,ECM come on smell the coffee mate, atleast we have a chase ,sausages all round and hopefully a Stella run tonight from Ecm , cheers .. 

[TSNWK]

Nice 06z with it being cold for all from day 7 to day 10 after some inversion cold in the south later this week.. looking like it will topple from around day 11 so I will leave it now and hope for similar on the 12z.. now out to enjoy a crisp sunny day walking in the north downs..

[Alexis]

Lots of flabbiness about in the later stages of ECMWF, which I prefer to GFS's more progressive charts. They just have that February-cold look about them. 

[Singularity]

MJO composites are misleading really - what it really does is puts us ‘in the game’ when otherwise we wouldn’t be. It doesn’t mean we win! For that we need a conducive polar pattern for the ‘push’ from the MJO to head to the Arctic latitudes rather than stall in the mid-latitudes... and that has to be when the MJO is traversing the Pacific.

So much has to fall in place for more than a fleeting HLB result.

The MJO composites are even more of a red herring when the observed state is very slow moving or quasi-stationary such as we’ve seen for a month now. The composites are dominated by past cases of steady eastward movement, which has different implications - more of a sharp kick to the pattern than a prolonged nudge. 

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 06z Op for Tue 18th

Decent looking 2 day Northerly setting up for 17th and 18th on the GFS 06z Op   

[stodge]

Morning all

A rare opportunity to look at the 00Z charts and I'm going somewhere different this morning (bear with me):

The T+168 charts from UKMO, GEM, GFS

Now, some will be wondering - why is old @stodge showing the North American charts for this time?

I think a lot is going to depend on how the storm forecast for next weekend across the eastern seaboard plays out - it's the traditional mixing of cold air from the north and warm air from the Gulf of Mexico over the south-central USA that leads to rapid cyclogenesis and a traditional "nor'easter" as it is called. UKMO takes the storm out of the USA on a more N'ly track suggesting we could see some WAA to the west of Greenland and encouraging mid-Atlantic amplification while GEM keeps the storm more out to sea and moves it out in a more NE'ly pattern - thus it quickly exits and there's no time for mid-Atlantic height rises. 

The profile over northern Canada across the three models varies considerably. UKMO has slack heights to the north and the HP building to the west allowing the storm to take a more N'ly course while GEM has a strong HP block to the north forcing the storm to go more to the NE and GFS OP has the core more towards Greenland so it's hard to be certain which way the storm will go.

 

[January Snowstorm]

One thing that fascinates me this Winter is the depth of cold to our North. Even the slightest Northerly is immediately bringing us into -8 type uppers!! This hasn't been the case for many years with Northerlys lacking bite...

I think it's only a matter of time that a full on Northerly will bring us some real cold conditions

[fromey]

I see a few people saying the high is going to topple etc etc, is there a chance for someone to explain there thinking behind this for the less informed,

maybe a few chart to explain the process.

im not trying to catch anyone out or cause an argument just would like to understand what you are seeing, a chance to learn.

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, fromey said:

I see a few people saying the high is going to topple etc etc, is there a chance for someone to explain there thinking behind this for the less informed,

maybe a few chart to explain the process.

im not trying to catch anyone out or cause an argument just would like to understand what you are seeing, a chance to learn.

 

Well im sure someone more knowledgeable than me can explain but crudely there is a strong vortex and lots of energy ( low pressure systems) spinning away across the Atlantic to allow blocks to form where we want them - Scandy / Greenland.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Unfortunately nothing sustained on offer bar a day or two of chilly weather.

It’s been a common pattern this winter, rinse and repeat. Zero chance of HLB with the current setup and this is needed to deliver what most of us crave - sustained cold and snowy conditions.

To a certain extent, we got a full day snow-covered late Nov and again on fri.

Slim picking fir sure but the PM set up can deliver brief events.

On the odd occasion mid Atlantic highs can be slightly longer lasting , but broadly speaking the cold uppers are washed away within 48 hours...

[ICE COLD]

There’s some proper potent Ens in the 6z suit . 

[Cleeve Hill]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

One thing that fascinates me this Winter is the depth of cold to our North. Even the slightest Northerly is immediately bringing us into -8 type uppers!! This hasn't been the case for many years with Northerlys lacking bite...

I think it's only a matter of time that a full on Northerly will bring us some real cold conditions

Yes. Sea ice around Svalbard is 10% up on the 1990-2020 long term average. Haven’t seen that for a long time.