Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Ali1977]

Day 9 looks decent in the JMA, and day 11 looks primed too.  

[Battleground Snow]

Finally got the AO and NAO forecasts back, both trending mildly negative.

ECM op looked fairly -AO 

La Nina starting to fade too

[Ali1977]

The GEFS are littered with good charts at day 9 (getting closer)  
Sone cold PM, some very cold Northerlies, some cold easterlies , some potential Scandy type highs beyond.

[Chesil View]

Both gfs and ecm ops this morning looking  very dry down south going forward. Very much in line with meto extended. Which to be honest I'd happily take if its not going to be cold and snowy.

Edited January 9, 2022 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Weather-history]

A lot of dry weather for most places in the coming days by the looks of it. Could end up being a reasonably dry January 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Both gfs and ecm ops this morning looking  very dry down south going forward. Which to be honest I'd happily take if its not going to be cold and snowy.

Yup.

I can hear the rain against the window right now.yuk.

Give me dry and cool / foggy / frosty over that anyway.

It's inversion cold , but I'll take it .

 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

A lot of dry weather for most places in the coming days by the looks of it. Could end up being a reasonably dry January 

IMBY 13mm , across the hill in Huddersfield,5 mm.

Classic example of the Pennines sucking up the moisture on ' my side'...

 

Edited January 9, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup.

I can hear the rain against the window right now.yuk.

Give me dry and cool / foggy / frosty over that anyway.

It's inversion cold , but I'll take it .

 

Too right Nws. Nothing more depressing of a morning if you work outside like I do than the sound of yet more rain against the window or rattling the porch roof.

Inversion cold is fine by me too, and certainly the best we can hope for at the moment. In spite of the vortex dropping into Scandi teases on recent charts.

[IDO]

Good consistency from the GEFS mean from D8-16 with the modelling of the tPV, returning to the NW from a stroll to the NE:

It is hard to imagine, if that is correct, anything other than a flattish Atlantic profile. Trying to look for a reason to doubt this scenario, but with a Alaskan high and a Siberian high, the mechanics of why the tPV would act like this are all to apparent. Not a good NH profile for HLB in our locale and we can only hope for a reset in late January for maybe something more interesting in the last third of Winter.

The GFS op and Control are having little to do with any members that are a bit more amplified so whilst they are not aboard then the odds are stacked towards the mean. London 2m temps look average as a whole with a dry week ahead:

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

Good consistency from the GEFS mean from D8-16 with the modelling of the tPV, returning to the NW from a stroll to the NE:

It is hard to imagine, if that is correct, anything other than a flattish Atlantic profile. Trying to look for a reason to doubt this scenario, but with a Alaskan high and a Siberian high, the mechanics of why the tPV would act like this are all to apparent. Not a good NH profile for HLB in our locale and we can only hope for a reset in late January for maybe something more interesting in the last third of Winter.

The GFS op and Control are having little to do with any members that are a bit more amplified so whilst they are not aboard then the odds are stacked towards the mean. London 2m temps look average as a whole with a dry week ahead:

The control looks cold and has a very cold Northerly ..

And brings snow showers to some..

Even the south !! 

Edited January 9, 2022 by northwestsnow

[IDO]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The control looks cold and has a very cold Northerly ..

Yes, I was more focused on the 16-18th when this colder shot from the north was modelled. This is now gone, with the ECM flat. Obviously in FI we will be seeing similar runs of potential northerlies and when that gets below D8 we can maybe take them seriously, but what the control shows was a carbon copy of what we saw on the models for around the 16th which were seemingly aberrations...

Edited January 9, 2022 by IDO

[jules216]

Hopefully by 25.01 the -PNA +EPO returns in USA. What we need is that east coast ridge to return and cold draining away from EBS. This Atlantic ridge nonsense can bugger of I want stalling Atlantic trough upstream of east coast USA ridge to promote wave breaking(Scandi high) that correlates with usual awakening LA Nina analogs of Scandi dry/southern Europe wet regime.

 

 

 

 

 

[IDO]

As with the 12z from yesterday the D10 ECM op is an outlier, this time for uppers (London):

The op manufactures a cold pool, a micro feature that is more likely to be missing on the next run, low chance ATM. The D10 means are similar:

Both suggesting belling of the high, so another possible model watch to see if we can get a mini-wave for a transient stream of colder uppers from the northern quadrants. Depends on the synchronicity of high and tPV passage. 

[northwestsnow]

Taken from twitter ,lots of convection in the Tropics- not sure exactly how this will effect global patterns but a consequence of mjo 7 one would assume...

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,charts showing a dry theme with some clear skies,freezing fog and frost on the cards from midweek

GEFS continues with some very cold members.Lots to like if cold is what you like with the added benefit of

seeing some sun.

[mountain shadow]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Taken from twitter ,lots of convection in the Tropics- not sure exactly how this will effect global patterns but a consequence of mjo 7 one would assume...

Well, the MJO has been hovering around so called favourable 7/8 for weeks and produced nothing remotely favourable for Northerly blocking for us, so I see no reason why that would change now.

[Singularity]

ECM 00z is meteorologically very interesting later on with a stagnant run of days giving rise to a bit of cold air pooling over the UK.

I’m not convinced by how slowly it moves low pressure across Greenland though. Zonal flow across the Atlantic sector looks to become low - but that low without stratospheric forcing...?

Still sensing that we could end up with a colder than average yet low snowfall month overall.

[Bradley in Kent]

Good morning all, 

Yes as is always the case with nature nothing is guaranteed even if circumstances on paper look favourable as this winter so far has shown. 

So it looks like pressure will be building towards the UK but I dare say it'll be a gloomy one again as we'll be importing a load of muck as it builds from the SW. I don't think I have ever seen this level of agreement in the ensembles up to 10 (for London). Obviously a mobile transition to HP is easy for the models and forecasters! 

[sheikhy]

Anyone know whether ecm is inversion cold from tuesday or mild rubbish?!!

[Phil Blake]

21 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, the MJO has been hovering around so called favourable 7/8 for weeks and produced nothing remotely favourable for Northerly blocking for us, so I see no reason why that would change now.

Hasn't the MJO been hanging around in phase 7 for ages? 

[Penrith Snow]

Just now, Phil Blake said:

Hasn't the MJO been hanging around in phase 7 for ages? 

Yes it has and just shows what a load of nonsense that measure is for gauging the liklihood of HLB.

Over the past 20 years of Internet weather watching we have seen many winter weather forecast fads come and go and most of them were just useless tools, the MJO is just the latest.

I liked the one we had in the 1980's called the BDC, it stood for Bloody Damn Cold!

Andy

[Staffmoorlands]

22 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone know whether ecm is inversion cold from tuesday or mild rubbish?!!

Looking at GFS and ECM cloud predictions suggests opportunities for sunshine and overnight frost for some locations especially from Wednesday onwards. 

[offerman]

28 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Yes it has and just shows what a load of nonsense that measure is for gauging the liklihood of HLB.

Over the past 20 years of Internet weather watching we have seen many winter weather forecast fads come and go and most of them were just useless tools, the MJO is just the latest.

I liked the one we had in the 1980's called the BDC, it stood for Bloody Damn Cold!

Andy

Best post i have seen so far for a while.

i remember that’s80s saying too. BDC  

Brilliant,  and thanks for bringing that back up. 
 

 

[Summer Sun]

44 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Anyone know whether ecm is inversion cold from tuesday or mild rubbish?!!

Tomorrow looks cloud dominated on UKV high-res, but by Tuesday clearer skies gradually work south with cloud coming back in for the north. Could see some frosts this coming week if skies clear overnight and winds are light.

[mountain shadow]

47 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

Hasn't the MJO been hanging around in phase 7 for ages? 

It has but not at any great amplification. 

The trop PV whether coupled with the strat or not has ruled supreme.