Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, chris55 said:

Yes but the resolution of 9km refers to the “clarity” of the data inputted into the starting data. 
 

if you input 30km grid data you get a less detailed and accurate forecast. Like a poor quality YouTube video. (For example)

I don't these values are referring to the input data, although there may be a correlation as you say.

[chris55]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not neccessarily. If a feature is in a highly anomalously unusual state caused by a telleconnection which the model doesn't have great linkage with, then observational data is the only reference for the abnormality.

I don’t see the Azores high (over the Azores) to be in a highly anonymously or unusual state.

Do you?

[TSNWK]

Any news on the icon

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

I don’t see the Azores high (over the Azores) to be in a highly anonymously or unusual state.

Do you?

It's anomalously strong yes. Regardless of the magnitude of such anomaly, if for the reasons I explained observstional data is the only reference, the run will only loose grips with this anomaly and therefore output will be inaccurate.

[chris55]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's anomalously strong yes. Regardless of the magnitude of such anomaly, if for the reasons I explained observstional data is the only reference, the run will only loose grips with this anomaly and therefore output will be inaccurate.

So you class observational data as “your personal interpretation” of the data going forward.

I would class “Observational data” as the starting data for a model run.

Anyway onto the 18z  

[chris55]

ICON potentially frosty and cold Tuesday night into Wednesday for England and Wales.

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

London is showing 7c to 9c all next week. I guess its colder than this past week

 Could be some very chilly days where fog lingers.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Paul
Not really any need for the animosity, so edited out the slightly caustic first line.

[Kasim Awan]

11 minutes ago, chris55 said:

So you class observational data as “your personal interpretation” of the data going forward.

Not sure how it's a personal interpretation, the hadley cell has been in an inflated state throughout winter. This is due to the current dynamics of the PV causing increased rossby wave action out of the tropics which amplifies the hadley cell and therefore strengthening high pressure over southern Europe. A shift in AAM could lead to a pattern change in this mechanism.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

 Could be some very chilly days where fog lingers.

Looks very seasonal!

Bit of a shame we can't rewind the clock back to Xmas week!

Classic inversion , the warm air can't penetrate through to the surface.. 

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks very seasonal!

Bit of a shame we can't rewind the clock back to Xmas week!

Classic inversion , the warm air can't penetrate through to the surface.. 

Not everywhere though. Scotland looks very mild notably with minima. Inverness unusually the south will be coldest.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Daniel*

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Not everywhere though. Scotland looks very mild. Inverness unusually the south will be coldest.

I choose to concentrate on the trends at day 9 onwards ..

[Uncertainty]

3 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's what I was hoping for, Canadian lobe behaving and moving away for once!

This won't be resolved for 3-4 days yet.

Another rollercoaster ahead.

ECM MJO has just updated too, looks like it wants to loop around 7 forever lol

El Niño this summer then…

[edinburgh_1992]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not everywhere though. Scotland looks very mild notably with minima. Inverness unusually the south will be coldest.

Indeed,

Ecmwf is pretty awful for scotland with lots of cloud around next week. 
 

GFS was great last week, lots of sunny, frosty days predicted. Now it has aligned with ECMWF, as I expected would happen. To get sunny, frosty weather, we would need the HP to move further north, instead it is sitting over southern U.K.  

[northwestsnow]

GFS has moved towards 12z EC .

[Updated_Weather]

On 08/01/2022 at 22:17, northwestsnow said:

GFS has moved towards 12z EC .

Which isn’t a bad thing.

[Battleground Snow]

PV lobe getting pushed away from Canada

186 attached, just need Azores high to play ball later on.

[TSNWK]

Brilliant northern hemisphere profile to our north.. I would say.. now will that pesky Azores high shoot up into vacuumed over Greenland

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Brilliant northern hemisphere profile to our north.. I would say.. now will that pesky Azores high shoot up into vacuumed over Greenland

Well it kind of has to from here, doesn’t it?  (Know I said I wasn’t going to stay up for the pub run, but hey ho!). T204:

Edited January 8, 2022 by Mike Poole

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well it kind of has to from here, doesn’t it?  (Know I said I wasn’t going to stay up for the pub run, but hey ho!)

Grrr… spoiler low out from north east canda scuppers things on this run I think.. and the Azores high is robust 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well it kind of has to from here, doesn’t it?  (Know I said I wasn’t going to stay up for the pub run, but hey ho!). T204:

Possibly just to the west of Greenland , there’s a little gap in the PV that would give !! 

[Ali1977]

Another decent run to day 9, a little complicated around the NH now so already We’ll into FI. Let’s keep trending better and hopefully luck will be on our side as we approach more reliable timeframes. Keeping an eye on those ENS though, be nice to get those monster ridges back that were showing 3 days ago. 

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Possibly just to the west of Greenland , there’s a little gap in the PV that would give !! 

Kind of asking a lot of this area on this one, T240:

 

[Kasim Awan]

This is a much more realistic day 10 outcome of the 168h to 216h pattern shown on both the ecm / gfs op, and is in line with the ecm 12z mean.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Kind of asking a lot of this area on this one, T240:

 

Yep, the Canadian PV has just gone crazy again - let’s hope FI is exactly that , and completely wrong!! 
It’s still fairly different from the ECM so we are nine the wiser really.
 

[northwestsnow]

I wonder if there is scope for a surface high to the NE..

Edit , probably not.. 

Ah well, let's see the ensembles ...

Edited January 8, 2022 by northwestsnow