Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

[booferking]

Yep seen enough see yeas end of January for the February chase

[Guest]

1 hour ago, CoxR said:

chances of a deep and prolonged cold spell seem to be getting progressively downgraded within the GFS ensembles unfortunately 

I’ve not seen a single ensemble pack supportive of deep or prolonged cold all winter long so far. Certainly anything in the next two weeks certainly unlikely. 

[Kasim Awan]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

120 FI, with that low interaction

Will only lead to subtle differences tho

General direction is still the same.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’ve not seen a single ensemble pack supportive of deep or prolonged cold all winter long so far. Certainly anything in the next two weeks certainly unlikely. 

i agree,you can see with this ECM run even the latter stages hardly any PV and we still end up no cold,as others may have said that azores high is a real killer to UK cold!

[SqueakheartLW]

For those talking all the doom and gloom about the GFS 12z OP run it is on the mild side of the ensembles pretty much throughout.

Something you can hold hope on at least isn't it, knowing that very much every other ensemble member is colder than the Op

[Ali1977]

The models have no idea beyond day 6, so not sure why people are still writing Jan off!! 
 

So FI is the 15th ish, deep FI around 20th. That leaves 11 days where no one, not even the METO have a clue!! 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

For those talking all the doom and gloom about the GFS 12z OP run it is on the mild side of the ensembles pretty much throughout.

Something you can hold hope on at least isn't it, knowing that very much every other ensemble member is colder than the Op

not so sure even the mean isnt great really...although there has been a trend for a long while now for temps to fall after the 16th

[Kasim Awan]

Azores high again lol.

[Ali1977]

Day 10 looks good very going forward to me But then again, Jan has no chance of cold according to some

That detached low could squash the Azores high, or move it anyway 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

One of those where you’d like to see the next two frames from ECM T240:

I think a modest step away from cold today on the models, so a lower probability than yesterday of landing anything noteworthy, a decent short term toppler still very much on the cards.  On to tomorrow.

Edited January 9, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Staffmoorlands]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The models have no idea beyond day 6, so not sure why people are still writing Jan off!! 
 

So FI is the 15th ish, deep FI around 20th. That leaves 11 days where no one, not even the METO have a clue!! 

They have been spot on since Christmas. They predicted the record warmth for New Year and last weeks cool down. Currently, they are predicting 5-7 days of high pressure.

[Battleground Snow]

10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Will only lead to subtle differences tho

General direction is still the same.

Do you not think the AO is looking more and more negative on the ECM runs, I don't think many have noticed this, not a raging trop vortex for sure.

[SqueakheartLW]

I'll take either P24 or P27 from the GFS 12z.

Although P24 takes 2 days longer to get to the cold weather it is very much cold from the 18th right out to the very end of the run.

P27 is my favourite one however as the cold arrives 2 days earlier on the 16th and in general just gets colder and colder right to the end of the run.

P24 Charts

P27 Charts

You can probably see why I prefer P27 to P24 although both are cold members of the GFS 12z.

Edited January 9, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[Singularity]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Do you not think the AO is looking more and more negative on the ECM runs, I don't think many have noticed this, not a raging trop vortex for sure.

Well noticed. While the tropical forcing looks more important, it does make for a notable departure from seasonal modelling.

If only a negative AO had a strong correlation with cold UK weather - forecasting would be a bit easier on the mind!

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

They have been spot on since Christmas. They predicted the record warmth for New Year and last weeks cool down. Currently, they are predicting 5-7 days of high pressure.

I’ll give them the credit for not jumping on the Xmas cold possibilities, but they did not predict record warmth until it was in the models we get to see, and the cool down was also easy to see.
 

Beyond day 10 it’s a little bit of guess work  , which in the U.K. generally means guess mild unless models and bigger forces all suggest otherwise , and you won’t be far wrong. 
 

Ps - this doesn’t mean I’m saying a big freeze is coming , just that don’t write Jan off on the 09th!!

Edited January 9, 2022 by Ali1977

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

A reminder to how wrong models can be, don't think I'd mind if this had happened in January last year (or this year) though, be a bit chilly  

Ouch lol, I think that a bit too cold.

[tight isobar]

35 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

For those talking all the doom and gloom about the GFS 12z OP run it is on the mild side of the ensembles pretty much throughout.

Something you can hold hope on at least isn't it, knowing that very much every other ensemble member is colder than the Op

Exactly.. the northerly will be bk via mods @00z suites- probably 18z yeah it’s tricky gettin uk cold in.. and even trickier getting the models to decipher it!!

[Ali1977]

20 minutes ago, swfc said:

OK but can you see anything wintry in the next 10 days on the charts. If things can change why arnt the MetO picking up on it 

Possibly a decent northerly for a few days is all I see in the next 10-12 days, no idea beyond that. The METO won’t change their 2-4 week paragraph unless there is a clear signal, granted they don’t even mention any possible colder signals at the minute so that’s defo not a good sign but they can quickly jump!! 

If by the end of next week we have nothing signalled for late Jan then I too will be saying “hopefully in Feb”, but for now I’m still hopeful we can pull a decent cold spell out the hat this month. I do think anyone craving a sustained cold spell (easterly type) has little chance this month, unless we can get enough of a ridge that will topple to a temporary easterly!! 
 

Edit - day 10 EC ENS are poor looking at the mean, even I can’t try to polish that T*** !! 

Edited January 9, 2022 by Ali1977

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

The models have no idea beyond day 6, so not sure why people are still writing Jan off!! 
 

So FI is the 15th ish, deep FI around 20th. That leaves 11 days where no one, not even the METO have a clue!! 

Amazing how that statement only comes out when it’s the current output is not as desired? There must a good 10-20 thousand posts in the last 6-8 weeks posting nothing but cold charts 6days+ out. 
 

That said there is a large spread in the ensembles post day 6 as you mention, and a big spread suggests anything is possible but statistically speaking the chances of deep cold and snow is the least probable outcome as despite it being winter it’s least common weather type at this time of the year. 

[Paul]

I've just moved a bunch of posts overv to the chat thread. 

If you want to moan or ramp or chat without it being specifically about model output, then that's the place to head. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/96442-winter-2021-22-chat-moans-and-ramps-thread/?do=getNewComment

 

[Daniel*]

AO now expected to stay in negative territory going ahead.

I imagine ECM control was a stonker strong -NAO and -AO blocking, hemispherically the outlook is improving…

 

[stodge]

Evening all

To be fair, a lot of uninspiring output tonight but my eye is drawn to UKMO and at T+168 we have:

This comes about for two reasons - the small cut off LP in mid Atlantic starts meandering back south and the next upstream build of HP is consequently sent much further north and west.

The other part of this is even further upstream with the big storm exiting North America this time last week. I remarked this morning how UKMO had the storm moving slower and more to the north than other models and it sticks with that this evening. Is that energy heading NNE towards Western Greenland which would encourage our old friend the "Griceland" HP?

The GFS 12Z OP chart at the same time has a very different profile:

No cut off LP and the storm already aligning NE into the Atlantic choking off the opportunity for amplification.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

This is now the timescale we were tracking with the T264+ clusters a day or two ago, so let’s see what is currently being predicted and how it compares with previous.

Cluster 1, while designated Atlantic ridge (purple border) in fact has the high stubbornly refusing to shift from the UK.

Cluster 2, this one is similar to a couple of op runs recently with the Azores high sluggish to retract, but looks like it will get there in the end.

Cluster 3, is the one we want with a proper northerly developing.

Cluster 4, is also with much promise and a northerly flow.  

Most optimistic take, clusters 3 and 4 total 18 out of 51.  That’s todays odds!

It isn’t worth posting the T264+ clusters, there are 5 and look a complete mess, you can tell when there is just no signal whatsoever and that about sums it up.  

Finally, the spread at T168 is worth a mention:

At later times than this, there is uncertainty all over the place, but not a localised hot spot like this between Greenland and Iceland.  Make of it what you will, but I’d kind of mark it out as something that needs to be resolved before we put any faith in the later output.  

 

[Nick F]

I think the differences between models and between their own runs today over the Atlantic sector, particularly GFS between 06z vs 12z, stem from the uncertainty upstream of the track of storm that they blow up off the eastern seaboard later in the coming week.

GFS on both 06z and 12z keen to keep the deepening low close to the eastern seaboard as it tracks NE into the weekend, but 12z diverged from the 06z by taking the storm NE over S Greenland then on towards Iceland, whereas the 06z had the low move north towards Baffin Bay, allowing/forcing high pressure to ridge north towards Iceland with a northerly developing downstream over UK and N Sea. 

EC had differences between its 00z and 12z runs over the deepening of the low and track, 00z less developmental and drifting east out over NW Atlantic, 12z deeper and closer to the eastern seaboard but eventually filling and moving out into the NW Atlantic - both scenarios not allowing highs to ridge north for long over the Atlantic and allow a northerly over the UK.

Once the models sort out the track and development of the low off the eastern seaboard, then we may get some consistency. Mind you the models bring further lows out of eastern US and develop them - which goes to show the active pattern upstream over eastern N America and NW Atlantic vs the stagnant pattern over western Europe and NE Atlantic sector. How the models handle this contrast and which will override which remains to be seen!

Edited January 9, 2022 by Nick F

[northwestsnow]

Certainly next week looks cold across much of the country...

EC det had temps suppressed under the block ..