Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[beefy201]

Will be interesting to see the CET for the midlands this winter hunt for cold ? Certainly used more grit salt this year than for quite a few 

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

I love your enthusiasm mate , hope your are right but their isn't anything in the charts to suggest it 

Without hope there is nothing, as they say. I know things may seem boring at the moment but to be honest I have loved the cold frosty mornings and clear crisp, blue skies this week. Very unusual for a typical UK January which are normally plagued by relentless atlantic dross and the subsequent dark and dreary days with not a whiff of sunlight. Its been a good second best to powder snow imo. On the subject of hope, the ecm temp ens for debilt seem to take a downward step in the extended. 

[Man With Beard]

Weather patterns never last forever in the UK. The question I have is: will the high lift north and allow cold continental air, or will it retreat south and bring back the storms? The latter does look more likely. But might be February before it happens.

[Guest]

Roll on May!

 

.....

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Weather patterns never last forever in the UK. The question I have is: will the high lift north and allow cold continental air, or will it retreat south and bring back the storms? The latter does look more likely. But might be February before it happens.

February is one of the least stormy months traditionally so..... 

 

[johncam]

19 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Without hope there is nothing, as they say. I know things may seem boring at the moment but to be honest I have loved the cold frosty mornings and clear crisp, blue skies this week. Very unusual for a typical UK January which are normally plagued by relentless atlantic dross and the subsequent dark and dreary days with not a whiff of sunlight. Its been a good second best to powder snow imo. On the subject of hope, the ecm temp ens for debilt seem to take a downward step in the extended. 

Let's hope the models are picking up a different trend as I have had 4 frosts the whole winter till now 

 

 

 

 

[Premiere Neige]

6 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Thats strange, im not sure why one group detected one but another didnt...

Not sure if anyone has answered this already as I haven't got that far but the Canadian warming of 62/63 was at 30hpa rather than 10hpa. Think I've got that the right way round. 

[damianslaw]

25 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Roll on May!

 

.....

A northerly in May. Very common! Don't be surprised if we see such synoptics especially if the bottled up cold holds away through to May. Would be typical that it finally spills it's way to us then! 

[David Haines]

How much wishfull thinking would this be?

 

Probably loads that will make that never happen that i don't know about as a newbie, let alone the fact it starts at d10

[Sweatyman]

33 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Roll on May!

 

.....

The one CFS chart that will turn out correct.

[booferking]

52 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

The one CFS chart that will turn out correct.

Lovely can't wait. 

[GSP]

Should help the wind farms which couldn’t have been too productive recently. 

Edited January 21, 2022 by BornFromTheVoid
BFTV: Lets not kick off that debate in here!

[syed2878]

Hi guys any news on the ECM 46 days?

[PiscesStar]

Gfs 18z run is a total snorefest.. Risne and repeat... Next Run. Getting to be beyond a joke now... 

[KTtom]

GFS 00z comes up with something to spark some interest, with 'our' high moving east and then ridging into Scandinavia, can only be described as a rigue run at the moment, but who knows...

 

[Ali1977]

A bit more day 11 interest in the ENS this morning, and much more spread. A pattern change (or NH confusion at least) looks in the cards finally, let’s hope it works out well for us coldies 

 

Although this Perb seems to say, “ smash the PV to pieces around me all you like, but I refuse to leave the pole and satisfy the needs of you U.K. coldies” 

 

Edited January 21, 2022 by Ali1977

[carinthian]

12 minutes ago, KTtom said:

GFS 00z comes up with something to spark some interest, with 'our' high moving east and then ridging into Scandinavia, can only be described as a rigue run at the moment, but who knows...

 

Strange run that one. Seems forces from the east throwing some doubt into the model ? Possibly a rogue run.

C

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Strange run that one. Seems forces from the east throwing some doubt into the model ? Possibly a rogue run.

C

I would agree. Little support at T 240 and less as you go further into fi. Shouldn’t dismiss it but unlikely to repeat in 6 hours time.

[That ECM]

This what ecm thinks to building heights to our ne at t240.

Edited January 21, 2022 by That ECM

[Ali1977]

22 minutes ago, That ECM said:

This what ecm thinks to building heights to our ne at t240.

I’d prefer the ECM, looks like a wintry set up come day 11/12, where as the GFS would just prolong the pain

[DavidS]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

I’d prefer the ECM, looks like a wintry set up come day 11/12, where as the GFS would just prolong the pain

Yes I agree. GEM and ECM show a general west to east movement of the TPV during the 10 days. It  is not possible to tell if this would allow any height rises in behind as it were and we have seen this pattern repeat through January, with little hint or opportunity for high pressure to move north.

Exciting it is not.

[ANYWEATHER]

I think the 00z gfs run can be binned, but Ecm carries on the theme as we say goodbye to January with the high sinking and the Atlantic awakening.  Probably a good step forward for coldies , A pattern change may result in February seeing plenty of Winter for some....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think models are sniffing a change ahead with our resident HP moving.   Not like the GFS 00z though, no NE heights imo.  Let’s see if it backing west with troughs starting to move NW/SE in about a week + time gains traction

 

BFTP

[jules216]

I had snowstorm Yesterday and Tn -12.3°C, so far January average is -2.2°C and will go down below -3 by the end of the month. So much for UKMO seasonal which would have suggested my region to be some of the mildest this month,just look at the Mslp map for central/E Európe. So as much as outlook looks uhly who knows Once cold exits ESB, this is a funny winter with as múch model innacuracy as ever.

[chris55]

GFS 00z suit with some colder runs into Feb, though lots of scatter. Op on the mild side.