Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[chris55]

15 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

For record maxes? 

No I wasn’t referring to the milder flow on that chart date, but the potential for an easterly to form afterwards.

A southerly feed directly to the west of the U.K. reaching up to the higher latitudes -caused by blocking high pressure over the U.K. -  can be a precursor to an easterly.

Admittedly, that chart isn’t the best example, with the WAA being cut off. However I did say potential. 
 

here is an example of what I was getting at (as you full well knew)

 

These archive charts are 4 days apart. 

Edited January 21, 2022 by chris55

[nobble]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Has anyone any idea why we do not get cold and fog in the winter anymore or very rarely? This high pressure spell has been so disappointing in terms of its delivery, with hardly any fog.  To get cold and fog under winter anticyclones nowadays what do you need?

Loads of foggy days in this neck of the woods last 6/7 weeks 

some really dense freezing fog with nearly 0 visibility too

depends on location I guess

[johncam]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

No I wasn’t referring to the milder flow on that chart date, but the potential for an easterly to form afterwards.

A southerly feed directly to the west of the U.K. reaching up to the higher latitudes -caused by blocking high pressure over the U.K. -  can be a precursor to an easterly.

Admittedly, that chart isn’t the best example, with the WAA being cut off. However I did say potential. 
 

here is an example of what I was getting at (as you full well knew)

 

These charts are 4 days apart. 

Hi Chris , the problem is its the GFS so chances of coming off are slim to none 

[Bill4321]

It's not often that we go through a whole GFS run at this time of year with barely a hint of snow in North West Europe. But here we are.

0-192H

192-384H

[Battleground Snow]

2 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

Enough to push it about a little bit, but not to displace or split yet.

The tropospheric profile is becoming more interesting though, which may help further down the line.

This is a lot better, but still more needed

@CoxR

[Cambrian]

The breakthrough from the north that the GEM suite has been playing around with for the last few days has now appeared in the 12z operational run for day 10. Reasonable enough progression from day 8 to day 9 to support colder air coming south over the UK and Ireland.

 

Then on to day 10, the barometric pressure across central parts is back down around 1020mb and the heights to our southwest are looking increasingly squeezed courtesy of low pressure over the Azores. 

 

Decent uppers on their way down south, a cold supply from Siberia to Scotland with a long sea track over the Arctic due to a promising elongation of the eastern lobe of the PV. Nice.

[chris55]

21 minutes ago, johncam said:

Hi Chris , the problem is its the GFS so chances of coming off are slim to none 

Just discussing the output  not to say it will verify. 

[minus10]

20 minutes ago, Bill4321 said:

It's not often that we go through a whole GFS run at this time of year with barely a hint of snow in North West Europe. But here we are.

0-192H

192-384H

Yes....every which way but the cold way on gfs12z

11 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

The breakthrough from the north that the GEM suite has been playing around with for the last few days has now appeared in the 12z operational run for day 10. Reasonable enough progression from day 8 to day 9 to support colder air coming south over the UK and Ireland.

 

Then on to day 10, the barometric pressure across central parts is back down around 1020mb and the heights to our southwest are looking increasingly squeezed courtesy of low pressure over the Azores. 

 

Decent uppers on their way down south, a cold supply from Siberia to Scotland with a long sea track over the Arctic due to a promising elongation of the eastern lobe of the PV. Nice.

Lets hope the Gem is onto something...only ray of light i can see...

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Bill4321 said:

Hi @Catacol or any other helpful person.. Please forgive the silly question from me but what is CC? I'm trying to learn as much as I can from here but this has baffled me! I'm guessing it's global warming and something to do with Carbon(?) but can't quite put my finger on it..

Sorry- CC is climate change.

[Battleground Snow]

Gefs improvement from the last run into early Feb, mainly northerlies or north Westerlies, but a few Easterlies too.

[Bill4321]

21 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Sorry- CC is climate change.

@Catacol Thank you

Edited January 21, 2022 by Bill4321

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

Well today's AO forecast makes for interesting reading, just 2 days ago it had zero negative runs forecast, now there are few that go deeply negative.

Can somebody share the ECM post day 10 AO graph if they have it please?

 

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

This is a lot better, but still more needed

@CoxR

No doubt it’ll be gone next run, but this is early enough to profit in later Feb vice March which is good.

[Chesil View]

Just to lift the spirits and purely for fun of course, check out pert 8 on the GFS 12z. Even a channel low thrown in for good measure. As I said just for fun but nice to look at and dream of better times.

[topo]

Is this a perfect PV?

[Lukesluckybunch]

heights building out west on ECM day 9 could be better!..haha you couldnt make it up,decides to take the long route that azores high nudging in again..could be day 10 stuff! lol

Edited January 21, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
spelling

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, topo said:

Is this a perfect PV?

Hopefully perfect for unleashing the big freeze fury In a few weeks,  yeah

[Lukesluckybunch]

a toppler at day 10,is that as good as it gets at momen!

[Staffmoorlands]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

a toppler at day 10,is that as good as it gets at momen!

Well at least we get a bit more in the way of active weather next week although it now looks a bit milder than this week 

[damianslaw]

I know its 10 days away... but ECM first model run in a long time showing a definate shift to something more unsettled and quite cold.. all courtesy of a more amplified flow.. heights ridging back west. All very plausible but very different to GFS. If you removed the name of the model I'd have said the GFS output is ECM and ECM is GFS...

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I know its 10 days away... but ECM first model run in a long time showing a definate shift to something more unsettled and quite cold.. all courtesy of a more amplified flow.. heights ridging back west. All very plausible but very different to GFS. If you removed the name of the model I'd have said the GFS output is ECM and ECM is GFS...

hmm i wouldnt say it will be quite cold looking at the ECM,especially with strongish heights still in the south and a predominantly westerly flow..its not a cold direction and also i dont see anything amplified?

Edited January 21, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

hmm i wouldnt say it will be quite cold looking at the ECM,especially with strongish heights still in the south and a predominantly westerly flow..its not a cold direction and also i dont see anything amplified?

If you look at the flow the air source is arctic yes is a westerly direction but I would imagine cold uppers mixed in more so for the north. 

[damianslaw]

UKMO much more closely aligned to ECM as well this evening.

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

hmm i wouldnt say it will be quite cold looking at the ECM,especially with strongish heights still in the south and a predominantly westerly flow..its not a cold direction and also i dont see anything amplified?

That’ll be cold enough on day 11 for snow, if it happened obviously!! 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM looking interesting at 192hrs onwards been following high pressure leaving Canadian eastern sea board from around 168 hrs as the track across Atlantic keeping far enough north.The end result with low pressure to our north/northeast bringing a more colder changeable pattern,showing in GEFS 12 z around end of month with a distinct drop in temperatures from ensembles.Meanwhile day time temperatures in Oxford managed 3.6c after -7c in Wallingford Oxfordshire overnight pretty impressive.