Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Jimmyh]

Agreed calm on the warnings are requires here. I think it was earlier in the thread that I posted that this is one move from an Amber. Warnings will be updated around 10.30 and we will go Broad Amber. 

[Steve C]

I'd be very surprised if amber warnings weren't issued later this morning (and to be honest, it seems a reasonable timeframe to me) Maybe red later tomorrow for the expected worst zone.

I've always expected this sort of timeframe - the existing warning area is very broad and imprecise, which to me reflects the uncertainty. It'll change today.

[simonhall6]

Just watched the BBC weather and they said storm Eunice will be windy with 60/70 MPH gusts around possible , no where near as severe as the charts we have been viewing especially around the South west, are they viewing different data ?

Edited February 16, 2022 by simonhall6

[cowdog]

4 minutes ago, Steve C said:

I'd be very surprised if amber warnings weren't issued later this morning (and to be honest, it seems a reasonable timeframe to me) Maybe red later tomorrow for the expected worst zone.

I've always expected this sort of timeframe - the existing warning area is very broad and imprecise, which to me reflects the uncertainty. It'll change today.

Red will be very late tomorrow. Will be the 12z runs that will provide the first pinned down track, as until them the model runs will be running without the storm actual existing. As such going to be after 3pm at the very earliest before any decision over Red's could be made.

Edited February 16, 2022 by cowdog

[GSP]

We have all this technology and this Friday is more than suggesting an extreme weather event for Friday, and one that many would not have experienced in their younger lives so far.
It’s mainly a daytime event, the kids are off school, outdoor plans are being made by many who never look at forecasts. Yes I can imagine forecasters are scared of calling a non event, but in this case something bad is virtually certain now.
There should be more awareness at least being made by now!

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

Just watched the BBC weather and they said storm Eunice will be windy with 60/65 MPH gusts around, no where near as severe as the charts we have been viewing especially around the South west 

They will change their tune if these charts don't downgrade. To be honest, TV forecasts are not high up on the watch list for these two storms. Twitter and forums the way to go! Most up to date info  

Just now, GSP said:

We have all this technology and this Friday is more than suggesting an extreme weather event for Friday, and one that many would not have experienced in their younger lives so far.
It’s mainly a daytime event, the kids are off school, outdoor plans are being made by many who never look at forecasts. Yes I can imagine forecasters are scared of calling a non event, but in this case something bad is virtually certain now.
There should be more awareness at least being made by now!

It is the lead UK story on Sky News. BBC need to pull their finger out, as usual.

[kev238]

This storm is going to be hugely disruptive and dangerous if it comes off as forecast by most models this morning . It will be on a Friday during the day- gusts upwards of 75mph inland are very very rare ! I’d suspect there will be a red warning by Thursday evening if the charts shown by the GFS are close to accurate . It’s half term in some areas but not in others 

[seb]

3 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

They will change their tune if these charts don't downgrade. To be honest, TV forecasts are not high up on the watch list for these two storms. Twitter and forums the way to go! Most up to date info  

It is the lead UK story on Sky News. BBC need to pull their finger out, as usual.

To be fair, the BBC has quite a good report up on their website but arguably not prominent enough... and the TV news are running with it as if it's just a bit of windy weather.

 

Storm Dudley and Storm Eunice: What you need to know - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

As the UK braces for Storms Dudley and Eunice, BBC Weather's Chris Fawkes explains more about named winter storms and their impacts.

 

Quote

Of the two storms currently predicted, Eunice could have the biggest impacts. Again, weather warnings have been issued well ahead of time. The warnings are yellow at the time of writing but state the risk of very damaging 80 mph inland gusts of wind and disruptive areas of heavy snow with blizzards. The areas at greatest risk are still changing a little between computer simulations, and this is why the warnings haven't been upgraded to amber yet. The fact that we can warn for Storm Eunice this far ahead is an amazing achievement of modern science, when you consider that it doesn't actually exist yet. Eunice won't start forming until late on Wednesday afternoon.

 

[CLH]

To clarify, it's not half term everywhere, in fact, in most places it's next week. So, advice not to travel to school during the peak of the storm might be needed.

As to the Met, they will be looking closely at it this morning.

[John Stevens]

5 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

the kids are off school

The problem is the large majority of the schools are not on half term…down here in the south it appears only Surrey and a few private schools are off. The school my  sister works at in Huddersfield isn’t off until next week either…

[Sara_south_yorks]

5 minutes ago, John Stevens said:

The problem is the large majority of the schools are not on half term…down here in the south it appears only Surrey and a few private schools are off. The school my  sister works at in Huddersfield isn’t off until next week either…

Yeah schools here aren't off until next week either. 

[sunnijim]

21 minutes ago, simonhall6 said:

Just watched the BBC weather and they said storm Eunice will be windy with 60/70 MPH gusts around possible , no where near as severe as the charts we have been viewing especially around the South west, are they viewing different data ?

Have to say the latest ukmo fax doesn't really alarm as much in terms of wind speeds as the various other models we follow here.

You would think 60mph to 70mph widely,with perhaps more focus further East than West?

60mph to 70mph inland is of course unusual but nothing of great note for coastal locations as in a normal winter that can happen 4 or 5 times.

Edited February 16, 2022 by sunnijim

[weirpig]

Icon still going with the more southerly route   must say on its own at this point

[Geordiesnow]

It all depends on the shape of the low aswell as of course positioning who gets the strongest winds and how strong. Plus dont discount the snow risk either especially with blizzards possible, southern Scotland looks most at risk it seems from snowfall. 

[Mark Smithy]

21 minutes ago, GSP said:

 the kids are off school, 

This has to be repeated: they are NOT off school across large regions of the worst affected areas in the south. Half-term is next week for them.

[weirpig]

In regards to the icon6z  winds further south and blizzard condtions midlands North  to be fair its had this same theme for a few days now.  very much an outlier  but maybe one to watch?.

[GSP]

5 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

This has to be repeated: they are NOT off school across large regions of the worst affected areas in the south. Half-term is next week for them.

Wow, sorry Mark thought it was blanket across the country.

22 minutes ago, John Stevens said:

The problem is the large majority of the schools are not on half term…down here in the south it appears only Surrey and a few private schools are off. The school my  sister works at in Huddersfield isn’t off until next week either…

Thanks. Thought the whole country was off.

[Frostbite1980]

I have an emergency responders meeting at 12pm today about impacts for the SE with the Met so it will be interesting to see if a possible red warning may be issued at some point.

[kev238]

It does seem amiss that there is clearly the potential for this to bring the strongest winds for a couple of decades in the southern half of country and yet its not being flagged up to that level.  Infact my dad, who follows weather fairly closely and lives in Gloucestershire , believes that Friday will Just be a bit windy 

[Uncle_Barty]

52 minutes ago, ModestMention said:

I have convinced my wife to take the day off / WFH* as having to cross the New Forest and then the M27 is not ideal. Trees or HGVs. I WFH anyway but I'm booking the day off as if it comes off as forecasted now, I'm not getting a lot of work done anyway.

*That is booking that day off then having a zoom meeting if we have power / internet. Not claiming WFH and then skiving  

At least all the cones on the M27 will be gone by Friday morning. Either collected by Highways or blown away  lol.

[Steve C]

What the 06Z Icon run is showing doesn't warrant Eunice even being a named storm, IMO.

I'm not up to speed with model statistics, so how well rated is Icon? It does seem to update very quickly...

 

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, Cassivellaunus said:

Don't understand the met office decision on this. We have amber warnings for Dudley on either Sunday/Monday which I agree with. We are now less than 48 hrs away and we are still on yellow warnings for a storm that could be the most damaging for years. I get that the track could shift last minute but surely this should have been upgraded to an amber. It should have been done yesterday covering a large area for potential track even if it does not come off. I'm talking to people about the potential storm and they laugh it off as if it's not going to happen. There BBC weather apps saying 50-60mph and met office has only just updated to 68mph but yet the charts you guys are showing have been between 80-100mph which for some people will be the difference between losing an odd tile or losing their roof or worse their life as they may avoided that journey if they had known earlier. Really disappointed in their warning system on this, I think they have played it too safe but we shall see I guess.

I completely agree. The Met Office warnings for Friday are both baffling and irresponsible. If there was ever a weather event that needs a bit of sensationalising, it's this one.

Of course, they'll rigidly stick to their 10-11am window for issuing warning updates too.

[Frostbite1980]

No let up on the GFS 6z unfortunately.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=54&mode=0

[Snow Queen one]

All Schools in KENT EAST SUSSEX MIDDLESEX to name a few are on half term this week.  Thats quite a lot of kids off school.

I hope Eunice does not arrive.  My builders have just git upto roof plate height on a house i am building and if this storm arrives as predicted i fear for my newly built walls.

[weirpig]

gfs 6z  very similar track to the oz   worrying