Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Weather-history]

Something to note is that there are more skyscrapers in London than in 1987/1990.

Can you imagine being at the top of the Shard in this?   

I wonder if the skyscrapers in London will be evacuated or close during the storm?

[TwisterGirl81]

The highest report gust from Exeter in the Burns Day storm was 85mph, with storm Eunice i've seen a couple online weather pages (uk weather outlook and xc weather) predicting us 78-85mph even 91mph on another one where as BBC and Met office seems to be going 70mph, we shall see....

I think we will know what we are all facing by tomorrow when the track firms up

Edited February 16, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[kev238]

There’s little doubt now that this storm is going to be hugely disruptive , damaging and will pose a significant threat to infrastructure , transport and potentially a significant threat to life . I’ve never seen those white wind gust colours at 48 hrs out in those locations- in addition it’s occurring on a Friday during the day . There could scarcely be a worse day for it to happen either marking the start or end of half term 

I suspect the red wind warning that is incoming will be large and be for many parts of the current amber warning .

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Something to note is that there are more skyscrapers in London than in 1987/1990.

Can you imagine being at the top of the Shard in this?   

I wonder if the skyscrapers in London will be evacuated or close during the storm?

Don't know, I'm just glad I'm no where near there, I've experienced the wind tunnel effect they cause, bring the strong winds down to ground level. I would like to hope people listen to whatever is said tomorrow and even over night Thursday about this storm.

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, cowdog said:

First time the top of the scale is hitting the North of England. Its definitely moved North, at least on UKV.

Its absolutely a widespread event based on the models, plenty of suggestions of another band of high winds shifting inland from the NW as the winds shift to an angle that makes the NW far more exposed and that will obviously to some extent work its way eastwards as well.

Looking at that latest UKV run you could make a reasonable argument for 3-4 separate areas that might need a red alert warning should it hold as it is.

[Ross90]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Something to note is that there are more skyscrapers in London than in 1987/1990.

Can you imagine being at the top of the Shard in this?   

I wonder if the skyscrapers in London will be evacuated or close during the storm?

That would be a bit of an extreme measure, i'm sure towers are/were generally designed to survive winds of up to about 200 mph. The windows probably weren't but most windows in skyscrapers will be able to handle 100mph +.

[GSP]

7 minutes ago, James102 said:

That may be justified to some extent because many Things That Will Blow Down in 70/80mph Gusts have already blown down over recent years in the north, whereas the south has accumulated a big store of these things since 1990.

Yes I believe a few things will get ‘found out’ down here as they haven’t been exposed to anything like this for many years.

[Malcolm Edwards]

10 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

I admire your nerve.

 

If i lived in Cornwall i would be out buying some new underpants.

 

Yeah looks ferocious for me. 

[Skullzrulerz]

13 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

I admire your nerve.

 

If i lived in Cornwall i would be out buying some new underpants.

 

Seen it all before, gets downgraded or is weaker then forecast.

I start to take notice if models are in agreement.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

I don't understand why the media and TV forecasts are entirely focussed on Dudley? It's a bog standard winter storm and Eunice is going to be orders of magnitude more dangerous. 

It might be that they want to get the worst effects of Dudley out the way first. If there was a mixed message or any ambiguity some people here might get confused and not prepare for what is happening today. We still have 48 hours in which to ramp up messaging for Eunice, which I would expect would be done rapidly from tonight.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Glaswegianblizzard

[Coopsy]

35 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Might well be the case in the end, I'd just perfer not to over ramp it until we are closer to the time, it would take a relatively small adjustment in terms of formational delay to take those 80mph down to 65-70mph. Still bad of course, but not quite as noteworthy.

Just for reference here is the gusts from the Burns day storm, noting they are in knots, not mph:

Many 75-85kts in there, roughly gusting anywhere from 85-95mph. As can be seen on the models for our system, we aren't quite at those sorts of levels apart from maybe very exposed SW/Wales locations, but regardless its going to be a pretty rare event and perfectly warrants large attention.

Synoptically they aren't too different though, other than a deeper low for the 1990 system, and it serves as a good possible baseline to watch.

I was pretty much bang under that 88kts (100 mph) in north Kent when at school. We were being evacuated across the playground when the roof of the gym ripped off and flew within a few metres of a large group of kids. Very nearly took us all out. 

This storm is looking likely to be 70-80 mph across large parts in land, if not more. Whilst there’s a big difference at the top end in 20/30 mph it’s still gonna get messy, especially as it’s been very wet this week for many.

Let’s hope it downgrades a little nearer the time otherwise it’ll be one to talk about for many years with some potentially big impacts both to infrastructure and life. 

Edited February 16, 2022 by Coopsy

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Seen it all before, gets downgraded or is weaker then forecast.

I start to take notice if models are in agreement.

The models ARE in agreement, about as good agreement as I've ever seen to be honest when it comes to these type of systems. 

Not a single model goes below 75mph winds for the south, and quite a few are significantly stronger.

[Paul_1978]

I am travelling north to Scotland in the early hours of Saturday morning after the storm has passed through so my concern at that time is snow across the high level routes (eg A66). I am hoping it will have melted or turned to rain by then?

 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Coopsy said:

I was pretty much bang under that 88kts (100 mph) in north Kent when at school. We were being evacuated across the playground when the roof of the gym ripped off and flew within a few metres of a large group of kids. Very nearly took us all out. 

This storm is looking likely to be 70-80 mph across large parts in land. Whilst there’s a big difference at the top end in 20/30 mph it’s still gonna get messy, especially as it’s been very wet this week for many.

Let’s hope it downgrades a little nearer the time otherwise it’ll be one to talk about for many years with some potentially big impacts both to infrastructure and life. 

The run up to this event is important in my view.  Not only have we had storm Dudley, but in my neck of the woods we have had two days recently when it rained pretty much all day (yesterday and Sunday).  If the ground is wet and soggy, it is more likely that trees may be uprooted when the really strong winds hit.  I’m probably preempting the 12z runs but I think large swathes of the south are looking at a pretty scary event not seen in recent years at all.  

[stripeyfox]

On 16/02/2022 at 15:41, Skullzrulerz said:

Seen it all before, gets downgraded or is weaker then forecast.

I start to take notice if models are in agreement.

I think most of them are broadly in agreement though?

 

 

[Mark Smithy]

6 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Seen it all before, gets downgraded or is weaker then forecast.

I start to take notice if models are in agreement.

This is a wind-up, right? As I assume you know the models are all in agreement.

I'll leave it there.

[Staffordshire]

Hi All,

 

I don’t post so much here anymore because life…

 

however I have seen the forecast.

 

I am planning on travelling and getting an Airbnb somewhere to experience this storm, specifically the snow.

 

where is it looking best to go currently?

 

preferably somewhere with a train station so I don’t have to drive.

[Sentinel]

3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Hi All,

 

I don’t post so much here anymore because life…

 

however I have seen the forecast.

 

I am planning on travelling and getting an Airbnb somewhere to experience this storm, specifically the snow.

 

where is it looking best to go currently?

 

preferably somewhere with a train station so I don’t have to drive.

I would try somewhere down on the coast. Brighton, Southend, Portsmouth, any of them will give a decent view and give an opportunity to see a swell.

[Chris Smith]

Looks like maybe Dudley is already on the "moving south" bandwagon - strongest gusts I've seen so far have been in West Wales 

[JamesC]

38 minutes ago, Paul said:

UKV 12z continues the theme of pretty unpleasant viewing for Friday. 

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ukv

 

I just looked back through the previous UKV runs and it does seem to be slightly downgrading each run. Compare the 6z run to the 12z, there is a noticeable difference in windspeeds. 

Possibly a trend? 

[shunthebartlett92]

Just now, JamesC said:

I just looked back through the previous UKV runs and it does seem to be slightly downgrading each run. Compare the 6z run to the 12z, there is a noticeable difference in windspeeds. 

Possibly a trend? 

I think this too, lets hope its much calmer tomorrow morning (and much further south

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, JamesC said:

I just looked back through the previous UKV runs and it does seem to be slightly downgrading each run. Compare the 6z run to the 12z, there is a noticeable difference in windspeeds. 

Possibly a trend? 

Perhaps that is the case for the far south, but the northern half of England looks worse as well as the extreme east of E Anglia, too. To me the strongest wind gusts are a little more widespread on the 12z.

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

I think this too, lets hope its much calmer tomorrow morning (and much further south

Not much respite on latest GFS, 12z T48:

If you can make out where the country is under all that dark red!  

Certainly no appreciable southerly move on this run.  

Edited February 16, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Ben Sainsbury]

23 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The models ARE in agreement, about as good agreement as I've ever seen to be honest when it comes to these type of systems. 

Not a single model goes below 75mph winds for the south, and quite a few are significantly stronger.

I would completely agree if Eunice was already a well-developed low, but Eunice is only really at the very start of its process in developing into a powerful low so there is greater uncertainty at this range compared to normal even despite the models being in good agreement.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[JamesC]

3 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

I think this too, lets hope its much calmer tomorrow morning (and much further south

We can hope but I doubt it. 

There will be little change from now until Friday in my opinion, it might trend to a slight downgrade in windspeeds but the majority of the south will see 60 - 80+mph.

Not ideal!