Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Skullzrulerz]

 

 

 

 

[matty40s]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

When are the warnings usually updated?

11.30 usually, 10.40 yesterday.

 

Insignificant little beastie isnt she...

[tinybill]

Here on. The east side expecting 80 to100. Very surprised if it don't go red warning for the south and east coast

[Pixel]

7 minutes ago, NeeNar said:

Don't worry, we are!

Brilliant forum name if you are indeed using the NeeNar - Keep us updated and welcome 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Pixel

[Mark Smithy]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yesterday morning:

Latest GFS

Naughty! You've picked out the plum 6z from yesterday.

Compare with the GFS 18z (or even the 0z) and today's 6z is back to high severity for the south-west.

What's different is, as others have pointed out, the low is now continuing to deepen over the UK rather than peaking out at sea and then filling. It's also c. 10mb deeper. The result is a return to the severity first forecast for the southwest AND greater severity across a swathe of southern Britain.

This is an intensely severe storm. There have been no "downgrades".

 

[Tilly]

8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Precisely. As others have said, the general public don't seem to be taking this seriously and who can blame them?

I think most people have no idea what’s coming. Everyone I’ve spoken to has been talking about their plans for Friday and I’ve said have you not seen the weather? and their reply is no… 
 

My daughter is out today at her friends and I’ve just had a text from the friends mum saying she would like to take the girls to blue water then drop my daughter back home tomorrow as they’ll be back late. I said no I need her back today. A lot of people have no idea anything is happening tomorrow. 

[baggielad]

25 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Scared

I saw that Marcus for the SA3 postcode. There was a brief period yesterday when the forecasted speeds where around the high 60s, but over 90 is not something I'm looking forward to especially as we are close to the sea with no real shelter.

Edited February 17, 2022 by baggielad

[GSP]

It’s got quite windy out here now, but winds ‘only’ showing between 24-36mph here according to XC weather.

Christ knows what tomorrow will be like!

Edited February 17, 2022 by GSP

[weirpig]

Ouch  bang through midlands

[Jayces]

2 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Personally, I'm not quite sure if this is a full on red now. Yesterday with with 90-100 mph gusts shown coming into the SW/S Wales on some models yes, but today it's more like gusts into the 80s near the coasts on the GFS/ECM, and 70s inland.

Current charts are slightly weaker than some seen yesterday on the approach into the SW (including some UKV charts I saw posted with 100mph gusts just offshore)... as pointed out wind force increases exponentially with speed, so 10mph does make a difference.

 

I imagine there are some deep discussions going on at the METO around this. It's been a tough couple of years for everyone and the country doesn't need more disruption if it's not warranted. I would hope there are no political drivers to the warnings but I imagine anyone in a red area would be advised not to travel unless absolutely neccesary which impacts people going to work.

Hopefully sensible heads prevail and I imagine the METO will push for a red warning if it's warranted.

[mike57]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm just hoping if people see the warning go red, they think back to what arwen did up north and in Scotland and think hang on a minute, this could be serious. Cause at the moment people are definitely in ignore mode.

I have seen it on a Facebook Group based on SW London. Dismissive comments like "Its just a winter gale" I pointed out that some parts of the country could be looking at windspeeds in the range of a Cat 1 hurricane. I dont think the complex way that the weather warnings are generated by the Met Office helps public understanding, particularly the probability aspect, which can downgrade a possible Red/Amber event to Amber/Yellow, and then having a Yellow warning for a 'windy day' that is almost 100% certain.

[NeeNar]

2 minutes ago, Pixel said:

Brilliant forum name if you are indeed using the NeeNaa - Keep us updated and welcome 

Ha thanks, it seemed appropriate! Putting the 13.5m ladder up last night to secure a roof was a tad emotional. Service prepping for the next as we speak. We're always there.

[Rich_T]

6 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Prob because Meto over last 10 years have issued weather warnings for 'little impact' events. When there is snow about they seem to issue them for a couple of cms, (down here) for example.

Weather warning for snow, at best we get a light dusting.

Weather warning for wind, at worst a plastic  chair may fall over, or a wheelie bin lid may pop open.

Most people look to the weather app on their phone, my app is saying the worst weather for Friday will be a few rain showers, and the other one says a moderate breeze with scattered rain

[Wivenswold]

All eyes on the 11am update from the UK Met then. 

[Evening thunder]

3 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Naughty! You've picked out the plum 6z from yesterday.

Compare with the GFS 18z (or even the 0z) and today's 6z is back to high severity for the south-west.

What's different is, as others have pointed out, the low is now continuing to deepen over the UK rather than peaking out at sea and then filling. It's also c. 10mb deeper. The result is a return to the severity first forecast for the southwest AND greater severity across a swathe of southern Britain.

This is an intensely severe storm. There have been no "downgrades".

 

Depends what you mean by 'downgrade' Not a great choice of word for what's still a severe event, but there has been a slight reduction in strength compared to some outputs in the last couple of days. People were commenting on how the GFS had the black crayon out (I'm focussing on the SW/Wales, maybe it's not done so for the east)

Edited February 17, 2022 by Evening thunder

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Mark Smithy said:

Naughty! You've picked out the plum 6z from yesterday.

Compare with the GFS 18z (or even the 0z) and today's 6z is back to high severity for the south-west.

What's different is, as others have pointed out, the low is now continuing to deepen over the UK rather than peaking out at sea and then filling. It's also c. 10mb deeper. The result is a return to the severity first forecast for the southwest AND greater severity across a swathe of southern Britain.

This is an intensely severe storm. There have been no "downgrades".

 

I agree it's still a severe storm but come on, it's clearly not quite as strong as it was for the the SW! Here are all the other GFS's from yesterday. Watch the lighter purple retreat as the day went on! (I'm not saying it's definitely correct now btw)

 

[Vee89]

Having experienced a red warning for Storm Arwen up on the north east coast, it really surprised me how many people didn’t take notice.
Our red warning began at 3pm, our schools didn’t close early, finished their usual time of 3:30pm, neither did any of our local businesses.
Luckily we didn’t suffer a great deal of damage personally, but the downed trees and roof tiles we saw the next day were shocking. 
It doesn’t look like we’ll see much from this coming storm, but I hope everyone stays safe. 

[MKN]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yesterday morning:

Latest GFS

Not seeing any sting jet on the gfs though so the 80ish mph being shown on there could easily end up more like 100mph 

[Just Before Dawn]

12 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Exactly my point. The emergency services are already pushed to their limits without this imminent chaos that is about to ensue. They need to also start preparing. 

We have been - since yesterday morning.  That said, the longer it takes to get accurate public warnings out, the harder work we have convincing people who aren’t as plugged into the weather like we are to change their plans and make preparations.

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Ouch  bang through midlands

This is very consistent from the previous run. Arome and ukv should be this most accurate in this situation, followed by arpege.

I'll be shocked if a red isn't put out in the next hour or so.

[weirpig]

Arome is severe  sting jet  through midlands into east anglia     

  

[Super_Uwe]

I wouldn't want to be in the Met's shoes having to decide on where a red warning should go.

What is clear though is the winds are going to hit at busy times during the day. The SW in general is going to see it bad during rush hour and the school run. Many thousands of people will be preparing to travel down for half term. So even if we see the winds drop a notch, the severity of impact is still going to be high because of the numbers of people scheduled to be out and about.

That all said, I can totally understand the desire to hold off as late as possible. The public in general need to be in a position to readily accept the warning and act properly. Also the consequences of schools etc potentially being shut means certain businesses will not be able to open, which has its own financial impact. It's a very complex mix and isn't just down to whether the wind gusts are going to be 80mph or 85mph.

[Jake Lamparski]

Warning updated, no red

[Mark Smithy]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

I agree it's still a severe storm but come on, it's clearly not quite as strong as it was for the the SW! 

 

 

No the 6z GFS has actually intensified and increased wind gusts for the SW as even Skullduggery acknowledged this morning

Anyway let's hope the intensification is wrong. It's going to be extremely damaging.

[Liam Burge]

There she is.