Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Man With Beard]

21 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Look at the difference between the ECM ens and the latest gfs ens...

i know which one i would bank

GFS spanked by ECM this evening, like in the good old days, doesn't happen as much as it used to!

21 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

 

21 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

 

21 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

 

21 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Man With Beard

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, and if you look at the position of what is left of the vortex, it is of course reflective of the earlier strat explosive final warming, GFS T132:

Which gives the opportunity for proper height rises in Greenland not seen all winter, and the opportunity for some snow here.  And let’s not forget that this pattern might be with us for some weeks, as the strat final warming has thrown the dice in the air, and it looks like the UK may have them come down on the cold side…

GFS climb down as others say, the shortwave feature now barely anywhere to be seen, we do see low heights developing eventually but from a shallow trough feature that builds at the base of the trough. 

The polar profile is the best we've seen all season for cold synoptics, alas a little too late to produce anything notably cold, but certainly not late enough to prevent something wintry. Look at the source of the north easterlies deep within the arctic, its a classic long drawn NE flow with arctic/greenland heights and can only be attributed to the quick imprint of the warming in the strat.

I would not be surprised at all if such synoptics as shown this evening verify that many at low levels could see some snow falling from the sky from mid week onwards, whether it settles and how heavy remains to be seen, all dependent on many factors. After over a week of very mild weather, March going out on a cold note.

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,just when we thought summer had arrived ECM shows a bitterly cold spell to start April with snow a strong possibility in many places after a snowless winter for many in the south.

[sheikhy]

Icon goes deep again!

[stodge]

Evening all

I left the forum last evening being told GFS was right and all the other models were wrong and the shortwave developing to the NW would halt the push of cold air SW into the British Isles.

And yet...

UKM, GEM and ECM have stuck to their guns and GFS has now fallen into line.

Some form of LP will develop over or just to the east of the British isles before easing away as pressure builds down from the NW but with the core of heights staying to the west, the colder air remains in place albeit with some moderation past next weekend and into the following week. 

As for temperatures and the possibilities of snow - the former will be much lower than recent experience and as for the latter the further north and the higher up the better your chance if we get some convection. I do think we'll see the return of night frosts and these could be quite sharp in some places.

I also note the GFS 12Z starting to show the wind reversal at 10 HPA in FI - not huge by any means but a clear reversal.

[sheikhy]

Gfs 18z cold again!!!!

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 18z cold again!!!!

Yep, plenty of snow about from Thurs to Sunday at least . That weather front on Thurs being the one to watch, if it’s still showing by tomorrow night I think you’d start hearing about it on the weather forecasts 

 

Then major cold reload beyond that with a proper Greenland high - could be a prolonged cold spell this 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, plenty of snow about from Thurs to Sunday at least . That weather front on Thurs being the one to watch, if it’s still showing by tomorrow night I think you’d start hearing about it on the weather forecasts 

 

Then major cold reload beyond that with a proper Greenland high - could be a prolonged cold spell this 

Gfs mean improves at 108 hours as well!!!

[cheshire snow]

26 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, plenty of snow about from Thurs to Sunday at least . That weather front on Thurs being the one to watch, if it’s still showing by tomorrow night I think you’d start hearing about it on the weather forecasts 

 

Then major cold reload beyond that with a proper Greenland high - could be a prolonged cold spell this 

Ali

Already talking about it on the forecast I have just seen on TV.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I must admit I hung up my cold coat long time ago,unlike me as in the past I've chased through til April. Also I've kind of become very focused on the difficult events the world is currently facing so at times weather can very much take a back seat!

I've thoroughly enjoyed this fine spell we've had all week,and all that sun has given my spirits a massive lift,I hope all of you lot have also been made to feel better by it. So a much colder spell looks literally odds on now,the big question is Snow? The possibility is most definitely there for a dumping or 3....and I'm sure even the most hardest of winter haters and warm lovers wouldn't begrudge one last chance of a snowfall or 2...let's face it the winter delivered nowt! 

Plenty of time too think about long warm and lazy evenings with a barbecue...but let's get one last hoorahh from this early Spring in the way of snow.

Tonight's 18z again highlights that snow risk later next week! Now let's hope this firm's up. The final warming may be helping to promote this final push of cold,and hey presto as soon as that vortex shifts or breaks down we finally see those Heights pushing towards the Greenland locale...

Fingers crossed folks its gonna be an interesting final destination

Edited March 26, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Allseasons-Si]

I am dreaming of a white Christmas April fools day

gfs op/control

like @MATTWOLVES says,it's been a fine week this week and i thoroughly enjoyed it

on a sad note,...my car engine packed up today with miss firing and smoke coming out of the exhaust and had to be towed to a garage,this is why i have not posted recently

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

I am dreaming of a white Christmas April fools day

gfs op/control

like @MATTWOLVES says,it's been a fine week this week and i thoroughly enjoyed it

on a sad note,...my car engine packed up today with miss firing and smoke coming out of the exhaust and had to be towed to a garage,this is why i have not posted recently

Head gasket failure?

[Mike Poole]

Quick comment on the 0z runs so far.  Clean evolution to cold in the reliable, but showing a tendency for the high to collapse into the UK quite soon after, leaving a narrow window for snow.  For sure there is potential afterwards, and I would suggest there will be a good month of weather coming often from the northeast quadrant, but of course it might be too late in the year for snow for many.  

[Lukesluckybunch]

nice looking ECM this morning easily the best output among the 0z models...looking for a reload from the northeast in the later frames

[sheikhy]

17 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

nice looking ECM this morning easily the best output among the 0z models...looking for a reload from the northeast in the later frames

Any charts buddy?!!sorry just woke up!!still a good clean evolution for mid next week?!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any charts buddy?!!sorry just woke up!!still a good clean evolution for mid next week?!!

hi sheikhy not sure how to post charts..but yes up to 168 looking especially good,with northeast flow dominating..a slight relax from the northwest.then by 240 a straight northerly

Edited March 27, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
adding image

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

hi sheikhy not sure how to post charts..but yes up to 168 looking especially good,with northeast flow dominating..a slight relax from the northwest.then by 240 a straight northerly

Nice one mate!!Sounds very much like the ecm 12z from last night!!but also sounds very good❄❄!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Nice one mate!!Sounds very much like the ecm 12z from last night!!but also sounds very good❄❄!!

yes its pretty good we briefly touch -10 uppers

[Gowon]

To me the cold has been downgraded this morning but there's (hopefully) the idea for a ridge to stay over us afterwards developing.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

To me the cold has been downgraded this morning but there's (hopefully) the idea for a ridge to stay over us afterwards developing.

i dont think the uppers have been downgraded too much,but i agree it doesnt look as good for somthing long lasting..but as it currently stands still pretty cold from thursday to sunday,with a snow risk!

[Frigid]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

To me the cold has been downgraded this morning but there's (hopefully) the idea for a ridge to stay over us afterwards developing.

Yeah, all the GFS runs yesterday were cool throughout but the 00Z decides to collapse the high and bring us into a westerly flow. The next 5 days carry on with the same theme. Lots to look out for

[Lukesluckybunch]

the ECM mean between 120-168 is -8 for most of the country!

[sheikhy]

Yes defo downgrade in terms of length of snowy spell but its a lot cleaner earlier on and colder!!hopefully 12zs upgrade the length!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yes defo downgrade in terms of length of snowy spell but its a lot cleaner earlier on and colder!!hopefully 12zs upgrade the length!!

true it was looking a week long cold spell,now currently more like 2/3 days..it can all change for the better though of course!

[Polar Maritime]

UKV & NetWx showing a cold N/Ely by the end of next week with possible wintry showers pushing inland and some sharp overnight frosts.