Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[tadpole]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I predict we will see a thunderstorm event on Friday 20th May, into Saturday 21st. I’m calling it now.

Only after I've arrived at centerparcs Thetford. Love thunder storms, but not driving in them. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Haven't seen many people talk about the UKMO lately, but it is just as impressive as the GFS & ECM. UKMO also been relatively consistent the last few days too. Good positioning of the high to the east of the UK, allowing some good WAA from the SSE.

UKMO T168 below:

Edited May 9, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[Cambrian]

12z GFS operational run, plenty of potential.

Day 7 to day 8, the potential build-up….

  

Day 8 to day 9, the potential breakdown….

   

Day 10, potential for digging out the coat, hat and umbrella and looking really stylish

   

[Guest]

Hmm looks as though the first hot spell is going to turn into brief warm waft. GFS and GEM seem to usher in the Atlantic much quicker through next week and any breakdown looks distinctly unthundery. 

Edited May 9, 2022 by Alderc

[Sweatyman]

27 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

12z GFS operational run, plenty of potential.

Day 7 to day 8, the potential build-up….

  

Day 8 to day 9, the potential breakdown….

   

Day 10, potential for digging out the coat, hat and umbrella and looking really stylish

   

looks a right load of over hyped short lived rubbish

[cheshire snow]

22 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

looks a right load of over hyped short lived rubbish

Similar to a UK Winter 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Similar to a UK Winter 

We only have the endless Autumn to look forward to!

[Man With Beard]

Another heat fest on the ECM 12Z. Taking usual summer adjustments into account on ECM raw charts, 30C remains possible for parts of the SE during next week. Generally maxing 23-28C across much of England depending on location (generally hotter further east), and low 20s up to the borders at times.

It does look a little precarious though - low pressure to the west a little nearer to cutting off the peak heat on this run.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Another heat fest on the ECM 12Z. Taking usual summer adjustments into account on ECM raw charts, 30C remains possible for parts of the SE during next week. Generally maxing 23-28C across much of England depending on location (generally hotter further east), and low 20s up to the borders at times.

It does look a little precarious though - low pressure to the west a little nearer to cutting off the peak heat on this run.

Hard to tell but doesn't look completely dry to me. Pressure is sub 1020mb with heights falling the further west you go.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Another heat fest on the ECM 12Z. Taking usual summer adjustments into account on ECM raw charts, 30C remains possible for parts of the SE during next week. Generally maxing 23-28C across much of England depending on location (generally hotter further east), and low 20s up to the borders at times.

It does look a little precarious though - low pressure to the west a little nearer to cutting off the peak heat on this run.

ECM is clearly the pick of the bunch this evening and allows several attempts at the breakdown and quite westerly ones at that too. Would expect the east to become quite warm however unfortunately  ECM seems to be an outlier against the others tonight. 

[sheikhy]

Looks like low to the south and west gona be too close!the means had the high a lot stronger and further west but you expect the operationals to be more accurate!!!so warm humid and thundery!i take that this early in the season!!still hoping for a correction west of the high after 144 hours!

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Hmm looks as though the first hot spell is going to turn into brief warm waft. GFS and GEM seem to usher in the Atlantic much quicker through next week and any breakdown looks distinctly unthundery. 

Nonsense, it's one run from the GFS, which has been chopping and changing so much over the last few days.

ECM looks much more prolonged and has been rock solid over the last few days (although slight differences between runs in terms of positioning of the high).

[Scorcher]

12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Looks like low to the south and west gona be too close!the means had the high a lot stronger and further west but you expect the operationals to be more accurate!!!so warm humid and thundery!i take that this early in the season!!still hoping for a correction west of the high after 144 hours!

Why do you expect the operationals to be more accurate? It's the opposite surely- the mean is a more reliable indicator than the op runs, that often throw out extremes.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Scorcher

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Why do you expect the operationals to be more accurate? It's the opposite surely- the mean is a more reliable indicator than the op runs, that often throw out extremes.

Op runs normally pick out spoilers that the means struggle to pick out!!!i for one hope the means are correct!besides it dont look too bad as it stands!!warm humid and thundery!!very good if you ask me!!dont want the pattern any further east though!!

[Man With Beard]

30 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Hard to tell but doesn't look completely dry to me. Pressure is sub 1020mb with heights falling the further west you go.

ECM precip charts showing potential for thundery imports next Wednesday/Thursday, too far off, of course

[ANYWEATHER]

Models shaping up for the briefest of Plumes.....in a weeks time which won't be there this time next week

[damianslaw]

There were signs yesterday of fine margins between something settled and warm and longer lasting in duration or something shorter.. GFS moving the short scenario, ECM is a fine balance. All looks precarious to me.. give me a strong high overhead any day than 1020mb heights with the core far to the NE. A showery dank humid airstream doesn't cut it for me really. 

Edited May 9, 2022 by damianslaw

[Cambrian]

Yes, to put the 12z GFS op into context, it’s very much on the low side of the ensemble for pressure at day 10/11

12z GEFS / GFS op 
  
The mean stays up around 1015mb, rather like the ECM op at day 10, which has more of a stand-off between the Atlantic low and the continental high, and a series of small low pressure features drifting up from the heat to the south

   

- so still a potential breakdown, but a more thundery one, before the fronts arrive from the west - which could take quite a while to push through the stand-off.

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by Cambrian

[SqueakheartLW]

Here's a decent plume on the GFS extended run today. Here's P5

If you want a decent plume then bank this one for early June

Unfortunately it's far extended stuff but those uppers look decent and a nice thundery low is waiting to move in from the SW too.

[Ben Sainsbury]

A distinct split in the GFS ensembles today on Thursday 19th, where half keep 850s above 10-11'c and the remaining half drop to sub 6-7'c. Probably a few more ensembles go cooler than staying warm at the moment but pretty much all stay above the 1979-2010 mean. UKMO, GEM & ICON runs this morning still remain good, GFS a lot more unsettled and possibly thundery too. All eyes on the ECM!

[mb018538]

Looks like there is a bit of a wobble happening...





A small upper trough is now forecast to get tangled up around the UK for Sunday, which is really interfering with things. So much so that the GFS doesn't have any heat at all this morning, with 23c the highest shown.

GEM has some heat for Wed/Thu next week (30c, but this seems an extreme outcome).




UKMO starts to being the very warm air in by Tuesday, though we're starting to see this pushed back a bit more. A few days ago the heat was due by the weekend!



Over to you ECM...

[mb018538]

Some hefty Biscay imports on the 00z ECM run for Sunday through to Monday morning too. First proper storms of the year?


 

[mb018538]

23 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

The ECM continues to centre the high much further to our East thus allowing a hotter Southerly flow.
The Anomalies do not support that with the high centred over/slightly East of the UK... the GFS is closer, especially IMHO the 18z GFS... Id expect that run to be closer to what we get.

Looks like the op runs were right. High of sorts to the east looks like winning out.

The problem we now have is that it's not high pressure dominated for the UK. It looks unstable and thundery instead.
Look at Tuesday on today's run, and from a couple of days ago. Pressure now forecast about 10mb lower, and all areas at risk of rain or storms.



 

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like the op runs were right. High of sorts to the east looks like winning out.

The problem we now have is that it's not high pressure dominated for the UK. It looks unstable and thundery instead.
Look at Tuesday on today's run, and from a couple of days ago. Pressure now forecast about 10mb lower, and all areas at risk of rain or storms.



 

I mentioned this yesterday mate!!although the means were rock solid in the high being a lot closer to us the op was having none of it and infact this morning we are on the cusp of everything ending up to far east!!!the downgrades continue and ecm is looking a lot more unsettled this morning!!worrying thing is ecm and gfs have picked up little spoilers to our south around 144 hours this morning and backs up my point that the ops with the higher resolution will more than likely be right!!!

[mb018538]

Well that's a pants ECM run. After Saturday there's rain or heavy showers forecast every day, and only Tuesday sees any warmth. Too much low pressure influence, with everything shunted east of the UK. Move everything back west 500 miles please!