Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[minus10]

Quite lively weather with warm air in the mix if gfs 12z is to be believed for next Friday..

⛈??..??

[Frosty.]

In terms of warmth, I think P17 GEFS 12z is a pretty good match to the 12z operational regarding Friday 20th.. a tad better even with those kinky isobars.. ! …hopefully the magic 80f will be reached or exceeded by later next week!… looking at the GEFS 12z generally, the SE has the best chance compared to the rest of the u k… I fancy Heathrow airport.. or Kew Gardens   ! ⛈…

 

Edited May 11, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

Unlike the Gfs 12z op, the ECM 12z indicates the warmest potential would be next Wednesday compared to the Gfs next Friday…I expect more twists and turns or flip flops before this is finally resolved!!  

 

 

[Cambrian]

Day 5 appears to be the pinch point on the 12z ECM operational run in terms of hard troughing from the Atlantic low into the UK and Ireland.

 

Thereafter the low lacks quite the energy that was modelled on the 0z run, but the run perhaps provides an interesting insight at day 10 into where we might end up towards the last week of the month as the low fills and fades to the northeast - with no real upstream traffic off the Atlantic and a high building from the Azores and moving in from the west, ready to link up with the heights over Europe. 

[minus10]

Well the 12z gfes are interesting...

850s

From profile looks like a type of rinse and repeat pattern...maybe heat build, breakdown etc. However, the control is on a roll man for second half of run...what has possessed it?

Precipitation

Plenty of spikes here to scare the spikiest hedgehog..again possibly indicating the r&r nature of the forecasted weather...however whats going on with the 27mm spike ens member on 18th..pretty massive storm would have thought

Pressure

To me looks fairly consistent right through the run averaging out at about 1020 mbs with not that much variability...perhaps indicating hp to east not relenting that easily or being quickley replaced. 

All in all in my (non expert) opinion this could be showing a changeable but warm spell coming up with potential for very active weather...think spikey agrees..

 

[damianslaw]

All becoming very messy and uncertain compared to what the models were showing a few days back when high pressure was set to hold greatest influence. Battle line developing unstable Atlantic air mixing with continental heights. Could be a very showery thundery spell mid month most likely warm and humid in a southerly / south westerly flow before the trough moves through and brings fresher air.. but the models are not in agreement on position of trough and timing for moving in. 

[mb018538]

The potential is there for a very warm day or two around early/mid next week.

GFS has 26c Tuesday, ECM 26c on Wednesday, and UKMO looks similar for Wednesday too. 



It would appear that after Saturday daytime, there could be showers/rain/storms affecting many areas of the UK with an unstable airmass and low pressure close by.

Late Saturday/Sunday we have a cluster of storms particularly affecting the S/SE corner:



Monday could see a trough pushing north with heavy rain/showers embedded:



Tuesday could be showery:



Wednesday could see another feature affecting the west with heavy rain/showers. By this stage eastern areas could be drier, closer to the high:

[Man With Beard]

For next week it's now looking likely the highest temperature so far this year will be achieved in the SE, but it's going to be a tough forecast if the pattern is as modelled, with fuzzy and moveable boundary lines between very warm/sunny air somewhere towards the SE, less warm and changeable air to the NW, and storms along the boundary of these air masses and quite possibly either side of the boundary. A good chance the warm air may push west temporarily as Atlantic depressions stall and swing from south to north. And I note the low to the west of Ireland looks quite nasty, a proper storm possible there? 

[damianslaw]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

For next week it's now looking likely the highest temperature so far this year will be achieved in the SE, but it's going to be a tough forecast if the pattern is as modelled, with fuzzy and moveable boundary lines between very warm/sunny air somewhere towards the SE, less warm and changeable air to the NW, and storms along the boundary of these air masses and quite possibly either side of the boundary. A good chance the warm air may push west temporarily as Atlantic depressions stall and swing from south to north. And I note the low to the west of Ireland looks quite nasty, a proper storm possible there? 

Yes a complex set up with fine margins between something notably warm sunny and settled and just warm but very unsettled. Forecasters will struggle and it will be a case of nowcasting. Short term developments will make a mockery of medium term outlooks. Take the coming Saturday a shallow heat low of sorts is set to develop and produce localised heavy possibly Thundery downpours overnight but very uncertain who will be affected. 

Some favoured SE parts could see good warmth, nothing exceptional for mid May mind, mid 20s. Further west and north high teens possibly squeezing into 20s for fleeting moments. 

[ANYWEATHER]

As always with these situations forecasting knife edge plumes and thunderstorms is like trying to forecast where snow will fall in Winter. Next week looks very much like  Radar watching will be the essential tool ! What we may get out of this is a good watering for the gardens ,but as always in these situations some gardens will miss out completely!  Anyway looking forward to some good old British Thunder and Lightning  

[kieranweatherfan]

Could reach 26 or 27 here in London looking at the output for early next week, some agreement across a few models 

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, kieranweatherfan said:

Could reach 26 or 27 here in London looking at the output for early next week, some agreement across a few models 

Yes always the prime spot on these occasions London and the south east of England. Not sure how long it will be for though, I think it's going to be a blink and miss it situation.

[kieranweatherfan]

55 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Yes always the prime spot on these occasions London and the south east of England. Not sure how long it will be for though, I think it's going to be a blink and miss it situation.

I’m only expecting 1 day perhaps 2 depends on that low pressure tbh, probably come down to the day itself, it’s clearly not resolved yet, but even without the high 20s it does keep London south east low twenties high teens sorta temp, which still above average for may

[sheikhy]

Very unsettled 06z gfs!!!but if it couldnt get things right at just 3 days out like it has done plenty of times before then i dont really believe it lol!!

[kieranweatherfan]

10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Very unsettled 06z gfs!!!but if it couldnt get things right at just 3 days out like it has done plenty of times before then i dont really believe it lol!!

Gfs has been all over the place recently but pretty set on temps over the next few days, low 20s reaching mid 20s at times across the south/ south east

[Guest]

1 minute ago, kieranweatherfan said:

Gfs has been all over the place recently but pretty set on temps over the next few days, low 20s reaching mid 20s at times across the south/ south east

I think it’s fair to say most of the models haven’t covered themselves in glory. 

[summer blizzard]

Euro has a fairly warm but mobile pattern out towards day 10.

GFS is truly wonderful from around day 10 with a classic low AAM/Nina signature.

[Tim Bland]

4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro has a fairly warm but mobile pattern out towards day 10.

GFS is truly wonderful from around day 10 with a classic low AAM/Nina signature.

Seems like the weather at day 10 is always beautiful. Booked a day of for golf yesterday ..after all models “at day 10” we’re predicting high pressure and 25c… Nearly drowned in a bunker ️️ 

[Guest]

No posts this evening? I’ve not looked at the models, not sure I want too

[joggs]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

No posts this evening? I’ve not looked at the models, not sure I want too

As ever, we're getting it snatched away from us lol 

[Guest]

Not surprised there’s no comments, the output is dreadful. GFS has lunchtime maxes on Sunday of 10-13C for all of Wales and most of west and south west England and don’t really get above 20C there most of next week. ECM similar, one of the biggest model back tracks I can remember in one of the warmer months. 

[Met.]

This is why I only start to put any credence into what I see to day 3 folks...

[kieranweatherfan]

26 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not surprised there’s no comments, the output is dreadful. GFS has lunchtime maxes on Sunday of 10-13C for all of Wales and most of west and south west England and don’t really get above 20C there most of next week. ECM similar, one of the biggest model back tracks I can remember in one of the warmer months. 

Not bad here in the south east though, temps 20 up to potentially 24° I’m pretty pleased with those temps for here

[Portsmouth Sun]

28 minutes ago, joggs said:

As ever, we're getting it snatched away from us lol 

How you can have something that only existed in models snatched away is beyond me.   People never learn on here.   The next week looks best in the south and SE with temps in the low to mid 20's. Away from the warmth the UK looks decidedly changeable with plenty of showers possible.

[damianslaw]

ECM sends high pressure through UK more of a ridge really over the weekend shooting it far north.. and leaving us in an unstable airstream. May become warm but hardly a settled outlook.. hard to be enthused really.