Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[MattStoke]

GFS throwing out the sort of output I’d like to see verify this summer  

And at just +384 hours

[Cambrian]

A notable change showing on the 12z GEFS mean charts between days 6 and 10. At day 6, north-south pressure of 1000-1010mb; at day 10, around or above 1020mb for pretty much all of the UK and Ireland. 500 hPa geopotential heights all in light blue / green (540-560 gpm) at day 6; yellows and oranges (560-572+ gpm) by day 10. The remaining polar pool takes a big hit too.
 

The day 6 / day 10 difference is even more marked on the operational run, 

 

a temporary settling down of things, maybe a couple of days of reliably dry weather on offer for many, as a bubble sent our way from the Azores high transits east over southern parts of Ireland and the UK. 

[Polar Maritime]

9 hours ago, Cambrian said:

 

get the high in first and the heat will follow. 

A bit like Winter..."Get the cold in first, And the the snow will follow" .

I agree with your analysis of the current charts

[E17boy]

Keeping close eye on that radar at the moment awaiting the much forecasted thunderstorms for the Southeast later this evening and tonight. Latest lightening radar showing some strikes now just over the channel  that has popped up in the last half hour. No lightening from home grown storms though here.  Let’s see how things develop in the next few hours. 

[Frosty.]

I’m liking the ECMWF 12z operational day 10…but I think I would like days 11, 12 & 13..14…even more…if you know what I mean!  

Edited May 18, 2022 by jon snow

[Earthshine]

Scorcher!... At 384 hours away

[Bradley in Kent]

The latest GFS op really went off on one there, could you imagine the chatter getting those temps so early in the season!

[Guest]

44 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

The latest GFS op really went off on one there, could you imagine the chatter getting those temps so early in the season!

lol gfs 12Z has 31C at midnight on 3rd June in London and mid to high 20s across all of southern England down to Cornwall. 

[Guest]

GFS FI flip flopping at its best. 
 

From low 30’s to mid teens 12hrs later 

[mb018538]

There really isn't much to post about. Such a boring outlook in the offing. Not surprised nobody is posting anything.

[mountain shadow]

47 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

There really isn't much to post about. Such a boring outlook in the offing. Not surprised nobody is posting anything.

Yup, standard temperate stuff. Wetter and cooler the further North and West you are, and drier and warmer the further South and East you are.

 

[Frosty.]

The longer term GEFS 0z mean indicates a decent end to the meteorological spring / start to summer thanks to the Azores high / ridge?! ️…for sure a less settled spell before then but at least some welcome rain for the gardens. ? ️ .wow, did I really just type that…I’ll get me coat!  

 

 

[Cambrian]

The 500hPa anomaly charts are worth looking at for slow signs of a possible change to something a bit more settled as we move into June. 

On the 0z GFS operational run, the day 5 chart nicely shows us where we’ll be, under a changeable westerly regime. What is striking though is how there’s no marked troughing or build of heights anywhere over Europe or the Eastern Atlantic, only minor anomalies. 

 

By day 8, there’s a bit of a build over Europe, and heights building in over Svalbard, but it’s at day 10 that it gets interesting with a rise in heights to our southwest and west, and still looking good throughout over Svalbard. 
 

This gives the chance of a block forming by day 12 with us in a cool northerly to begin with, the persistence of the Svalbard heights has helped squeeze open a gap to the north of Europe between the arms of Arctic troughing, squeezing out the low pressure to our north, a big reversal from a week before.

 

The caveat to the potential block is what plays out in the later stages of the GFS run - the possible development of low pressure over northern Germany which could roll back west.

But for the potential block itself, the 0z ECM op is trying to do something similar, day 5, day 8, day 10, by the same broad mechanism, persistent Svalbard heights linking with Atlantic heights to our west, and eventually freeing us of the influence of low pressure to our north.

  

[Don]

11 hours ago, Alderc said:

lol gfs 12Z has 31C at midnight on 3rd June in London and mid to high 20s across all of southern England down to Cornwall. 

Jeez, could you imagine that! 

[mb018538]

51 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

The 500hPa anomaly charts are worth looking at for slow signs of a possible change to something a bit more settled as we move into June. 

On the 0z GFS operational run, the day 5 chart nicely shows us where we’ll be, under a changeable westerly regime. What is striking though is how there’s no marked troughing or build of heights anywhere over Europe or the Eastern Atlantic, only minor anomalies. 

 

By day 8, there’s a bit of a build over Europe, and heights building in over Svalbard, but it’s at day 10 that it gets interesting with a rise in heights to our southwest and west, and still looking good throughout over Svalbard. 
 

This gives the chance of a block forming by day 12 with us in a cool northerly to begin with, the persistence of the Svalbard heights has helped squeeze open a gap to the north of Europe between the arms of Arctic troughing, squeezing out the low pressure to our north, a big reversal from a week before.

 

The caveat to the potential block is what plays out in the later stages of the GFS run - the possible development of low pressure over northern Germany which could roll back west.

But for the potential block itself, the 0z ECM op is trying to do something similar, day 5, day 8, day 10, by the same broad mechanism, persistent Svalbard heights linking with Atlantic heights to our west, and eventually freeing us of the influence of low pressure to our north.

  

NOAA anoms show a weak ridge over the UK in the 8-14 day range, with low pressure generally out of the way. 




Most of the ECM clusters beyond day 10 are roughly in line too. No heatwave, no washout. Probably continuing as we have been - temps above average with some decent days in there.

[mb018538]

6z GFS Op casually chucking out another heatwave chart (31/32c) for the Queen's Jubilee:





Definitely not an outlier either!  The winter equivalent of the -10 850 line covering the UK.....only in the summer it happens far more reliably!

[Guest]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

6z GFS Op casually chucking out another heatwave chart (31/32c) for the Queen's Jubilee:





Definitely not an outlier either!  The winter equivalent of the -10 850 line covering the UK.....only in the summer it happens far more reliably!

Bank  

Im playing golf on the Thursday and hopefully daytime beers on the Friday some in the sun by the beach! Would chop a toe off for this in reality! 

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe brings a change to more typical affair for late Spring. Broadly a changeable westerly airflow with the azores high rather suppressed. Temps probably near average generally bit a bit cooler than normal further north I'd expect given the air is mostly from north Atlantic. Southern parts may import something a bit warmer at times but not on a par with late.

All very average, rain many at times, heaviest furthest west and north. Usable weather at times more so furthest south and east. Chance of some heavy bursts of rain in places in the more showery airflow. 

May 2022 likely to end up a warm one at least, how wet remains to be seen, but not near as wet as last year. Sunshine probably close to normal.

Talk of the jubilee too far off to call, but suspect a dedicated thread will be established soon to speculate likely conditions. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Of course it's the gfs and of course it's in fl but the gfs keeps on churning runs out like this on Jubilee week and the Queen looks happy,...god bless her

 

Edited May 19, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Iceman2606]

End of the GFS 12z is a sight to behold

No chance of this verifying sadly...

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Of course it's the gfs and of course it's in fl but the gfs keeps on churning runs out like this on Jubilee week and the Queen looks happy,...god bless her

 

Get ready for the sensationalist 4 day scorcher jubilee heatwave headlines! Bound to appear at some point in the next week! Along with tradional end of May summer sizzle hottest ever on record headlines. They are like clockwork! 

Edited May 19, 2022 by damianslaw

[Frosty.]

I’m liking the longer term GEFS 12z mean since it shows increasing Azores high / ridge influence perfectly timed to the start of the meteorological summer!..Meg agrees that it could be on something… …I mean on TO something!!! ️ 

[Don]

3 hours ago, Iceman2606 said:

End of the GFS 12z is a sight to behold

No chance of this verifying sadly...

The GFS has been playing around with these hot FI charts recently for early June.  I wonder if it's on to something?!

[mushymanrob]

8 hours ago, Don said:

The GFS has been playing around with these hot FI charts recently for early June.  I wonder if it's on to something?!

Anomalies arent quite there yet, but arnt far off supporting it.

 

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Anomalies arent quite there yet, but arnt far off supporting it.

 

We'd best hope the 00z ECM op has lost the plot then....where has all this northern blocking appeared from? Nothing of the sort of the GFS or GEM.