Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[damianslaw]

36 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

We'd best hope the 00z ECM op has lost the plot then....where has all this northern blocking appeared from? Nothing of the sort of the GFS or GEM.

One of those if only we were heading into December charts, Greenland heights check, deep scandi trough check, southerly jet check...

[Cambrian]

0z ECM op picking up on the same trend that the GFS detected most plainly yesterday, though to be fair yesterday’s ECM had hints of it too.

Heights over and to the east of Svalbard and to our southwest at day 7,

 

linking up at day 8.

 

Thereafter, there are differences between the runs on how far north the resulting setup is - anything from high to our west, low over northern Germany with us in a northerly or northeasterly like yesterday’s GFS…

 

…to as with this ECM run, the low over the full length of Scandinavia, the high being between Greenland and Iceland, the block set up so far north it opens the door for an Atlantic low to roll around its southern flank, putting a further squeeze on the ridge over the UK and Ireland. 

Going by the ECM then, quite warm and pleasant under that high going into and through next weekend. Very nice for a while at least. Possibly turning cooler and more changeable again for a couple of days at the end of the month.

[mb018538]

30 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

0z ECM op picking up on the same trend that the GFS detected most plainly yesterday, though to be fair yesterday’s ECM had hints of it too.

Heights over and to the east of Svalbard and to our southwest at day 7,

 

linking up at day 8.

 

Thereafter, there are differences between the runs on how far north the resulting setup is - anything from high to our west, low over northern Germany with us in a northerly or northeasterly like yesterday’s GFS…

 

…to as with this ECM run, the low over the full length of Scandinavia, the high being between Greenland and Iceland, the block set up so far north it opens the door for an Atlantic low to roll around its southern flank, putting a further squeeze on the ridge over the UK and Ireland. 

Going by the ECM then, quite warm and pleasant under that high going into and through next weekend. Very nice for a while at least. Possibly turning cooler and more changeable again for a couple of days at the end of the month.

Worth noting the ECM 00z day 10 mean doesn't really support the op with a big Greenland high:

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

We'd best hope the 00z ECM op has lost the plot then....where has all this northern blocking appeared from? Nothing of the sort of the GFS or GEM.

ECM op at day 10 or the NOAA anomaly charts at day 10?.... id be surprised if the ECM was/will be right, but the ECM output is likely to influence the next NOAA chart.

 

[Guest]

Seems like all the models in the longer range are toying with the idea that high pressure will be a little more assertive around the turn of the month somewhere near to the uk. Ensemble means for ECM, GFS, ICON and GEM are all above average with a number of exceptionally warm runs, where there are colder members in the ensemble groupings it’s generally still high pressure related and just we are on the wrong side opposed the UK being steam-rolled by the Atlantic. 
 

Generally a positive feeling once we get beyond next weeks yawnfest! 

[Sunny76]

22 hours ago, mb018538 said:

6z GFS Op casually chucking out another heatwave chart (31/32c) for the Queen's Jubilee:





Definitely not an outlier either!  The winter equivalent of the -10 850 line covering the UK.....only in the summer it happens far more reliably!

I have a feeling this hot snap will be watered down to a 24c by the time we get to early June. 
 

[Don]

48 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I have a feeling this hot snap will be watered down to a 24c by the time we get to early June. 
 

24C would be fine by me!

[mb018538]

Another GFS run throwing out exceptionally hot charts (32c) for the Jubilee. Must be the third or fourth one in the last couple of days to show a plume for the Jubilee. Still a fortnight away, so clearly it's just guesswork at the moment.....but certainly one to watch.

[Cambrian]

6z GFS operational run for day 14 (342h/348h June 3rd). That’s the trouble with plumes…

- along with happy and glorious…

…we get long to rain over us.

(Still a very long way off thank goodness) 

[Dangerous55019]

Hello everyone, for what its worth,  time to throw my two penneth worth into this discussion with the CFS v2 4 weekly anomalies for the end of Spring and the start of meteorological summer.  

Week 1 - 20th to the 26th May: High pressure looks to be centered over main land Europe, which looks to be extending its influence over the southern part of the UK. Ireland, northern England, and Scotland look to be under the influence of a more Atlantic, westerly driven weather pattern, so probably more unsettled. 

Week 2 - 27th May to the 2nd June: The high pressure over main land Europe appears to be extending it influence over pretty much all of the UK! So I'm guessing a fine and settled week on the whole.

Week 3 - 3rd to the 9th June: The high pressure once again sinks south toward main land Europe, and bar the southern most extremities of Britain, I'd say that we're looking at a much more Atlantic influenced spell of weather. Is this the start of the European Summer Monsoon? 

Week 4 - 10th to the 16th June: The high pressure pulls out into the Atlantic, leaving the UK and Ireland in what could be a more Northerly air flow. Certainly not a wash out, but not a heat wave either! 

Will it pan out like this? Only time will tell. 

Hopefully this will help some members trying to piece together what's going to happen. 

[Dorsetbred]

3 hours ago, Cambrian said:

6z GFS operational run for day 14 (342h/348h June 3rd). That’s the trouble with plumes…

- along with happy and glorious…

…we get long to rain over us.

(Still a very long way off thank goodness) 

Or NOT as the model might suggest Jubilee celebrations in the capital may have a good run

At 14days out in the summer the positivity always appears to be more than 10days out in the winter models, model accuracy seasonal dependency?

Edited May 20, 2022 by Dorsetbred

[Mike Poole]

I’m seeing much more confidence from all models now that this current spell of rather unsettled but warm weather will evolve into something rather more settled in a week’s time, with the potential for some heat down the line.  UKMO, GFS and ICON 12z at T168:

You can see that the trough is now located sufficiently out west to allow the Azores high to migrate over the UK to a greater or lesser extent.  Interesting to look at the SSTs:

Warm over UK, as they have been for a while, and supportive of the pattern so I would not be surprised to see a longish spell of largely settled weather with the potential to draw up or home grow some heat as shown in the outer reaches of some recent model runs.

[Mike Poole]

ECM and GEM at T168 to make up the full set:

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM and GEM at T168 to make up the full set:

Third time lucky!! 
 

Let’s hope we get a proper settled spell to start off summer! 

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Third time lucky!! 
 

Let’s hope we get a proper settled spell to start off summer! 

Models are starting to sniff out high pressure moving in at the end of next week. All have different positions though so no idea on conditions yet. Hopefully not too far north or west so we get cooler air toppling around.

[Frosty.]

I don’t want to see retrogression on the cusp of summer!!!, save these charts for winter please Mr ECM! …next! …don’t worry, it never verifies in that range!…actually the 12z ends somewhat better than the 0z… phew..my bad!  

 

Edited May 20, 2022 by jon snow

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I don’t want to see retrogression on the cusp of summer!!!, save these charts for winter please Mr ECM! …next! …don’t worry, it never verifies in that range!

Second ECM run in a row to go for big northern blocking. See where we are with that one tomorrow I guess, GFS isn’t interested at the moment.

[SqueakheartLW]

It would seem quite a few of the models are hinting at very warm or even hot weather as we end May and get into early June. Surely we couldn't end up with decent weather for a Jubilee, surely not.

GFS 12z

P21 is definitely going for some warm or very warm weather at the end of May

Even the Op run wants to come out and play heat on Jubilee Party day too

I would take P19 for the 5th however

 

GEM 12z

How does the GEM 12z stack up against the GFS 12z then?

It seems on GEM we are not chasing 25C + days but more like 30C + days

P2, P8 and P12 are proper hot runs on the GEM 12z

P2 starts off the 30C fun on 29th May

P8 then takes over for both the 30th and 31st

Finally P12 completes the hot spell on 1st and 2nd of June

 

Edited May 20, 2022 by SqueakheartLW

[viking_smb]

On 19/05/2022 at 17:59, damianslaw said:

Reliable timeframe brings a change to more typical affair for late Spring. Broadly a changeable westerly airflow with the azores high rather suppressed. Temps probably near average generally bit a bit cooler than normal further north I'd expect given the air is mostly from north Atlantic. Southern parts may import something a bit warmer at times but not on a par with late.

All very average, rain many at times, heaviest furthest west and north. Usable weather at times more so furthest south and east. Chance of some heavy bursts of rain in places in the more showery airflow. 

May 2022 likely to end up a warm one at least, how wet remains to be seen, but not near as wet as last year. Sunshine probably close to normal.

Talk of the jubilee too far off to call, but suspect a dedicated thread will be established soon to speculate likely conditions. 

I hope its nice on the jubilee, im working at cbyc on the 4th due to us having races on and a parade of boats (which im leading using one of our ribs) so hope its nice.

[Captain Shortwave]

Given the recent outputs, in particular the trend for a ridge to build close to the U.K., I have tried to refrain from commenting given the majority output has placed the high unfavourably for anything particularly warm (in fact quite chilly in the east). However given the last few attempts have tended to push the ridge further east I expected the same might happen with this one.

This mornings ECM;

This certainly looks more promising with a broader ridge that is centred slightly further east. The result is a cleaner push of warmer air over the UK. The UKMO looks similar at day 6 to the ECM.

A long way to go, but this is the sort of direction I thought this might head. However at the moment the GFS/GEM build the high further north and west and as such allow cooler and cloudier conditions to run around the high into the east.
 

Edited May 21, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[mb018538]

35 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Given the recent outputs, in particular the trend for a ridge to build close to the U.K., I have tried to refrain from commenting given the majority output has placed the high unfavourably for anything particularly warm (in fact quite chilly in the east). However given the last few attempts have tended to push the ridge further east I expected the same might happen with this one.

This mornings ECM;

This certainly looks more promising with a broader ridge that is centred slightly further east. The result is a cleaner push of warmer air over the UK. The UKMO looks similar at day 6 to the ECM.

A long way to go, but this is the sort of direction I thought this might head. However at the moment the GFS/GEM build the high further north and west and as such allow cooler and cloudier conditions to run around the high into the east.
 

It's a bit on the edge!

We don't want it all pulled out to the west like the GEM shows



Or like this mess from the GFS, which allows an upper cold pool of air to drop down. This would just lead to loads of cloud, cooler and showers.



ECM is pretty good - eastern areas may suffer a bit with an easterly though. If it could shift 100 miles southeast then it'd be ideal and cover more or less everybody.
In this scenario the Ireland would do very well and see temps into the mid 20s.



One to nail down in the coming days.

[Guest]

Hmm not impressed with the model output this morning with northerly blocking starting to appear in the models at day10 and the dreaded upper trough sliding into the uk. 
 

To be fair the Ops run is a big outlier from GFS , the mean is better but still a huge range in the ensemble spread. Anything from heatwave to northerly seems on the table this morning. Not helpful! 

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hmm not impressed with the model output this morning with northerly blocking starting to appear in the models at day10 and the dreaded upper trough sliding into the uk. 
 

To be fair the Ops run is a big outlier from GFS , the mean is better but still a huge range in the ensemble spread. Anything from heatwave to northerly seems on the table this morning. Not helpful! 

I'm not worried; northern blocking often gives us our best summertime synoptics.

Edited May 21, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Buzz]

47 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hmm not impressed with the model output this morning with northerly blocking starting to appear in the models at day10 and the dreaded upper trough sliding into the uk. 
 

To be fair the Ops run is a big outlier from GFS , the mean is better but still a huge range in the ensemble spread. Anything from heatwave to northerly seems on the table this morning. Not helpful! 

Personally speaking I'd say that, looking just over a week ahead, the meteorological glass is half full, not half empty.

[Cambrian]

Very impressive level of consensus at day 7 across all the main models for high pressure of 1025-1030 mb across the UK and Ireland for next weekend. We struggle to obtain this kind of agreement for much of the year.

0z operational runs of the ECM / GEM / GFS / UKMO at 168h. Take your pick. 

     

A bit mixed this weekend and during the week to come then, but looking very good for next weekend. It doesn’t look like it’s going to be hot, just right perhaps. Not wall to wall sunshine either, but usable fair weather.

 

Like the consensus, very welcome indeed for the last weekend of spring.