Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[mb018538]

50 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm not worried; northern blocking often gives us our best summertime synoptics.

In what way? If you like cool and unsettled weather....or the horrific flooding like Boscastle 2004:



Or June 2012, one of the three worst June's in history:



Northern blocking nearly always leads to awful summer weather here in the UK. By design it has to - it forces the jet stream much further south and gets low pressure tracking and stuck over the UK. I'll have whatever you are smoking...

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

In what way? If you like cool and unsettled weather....or the horrific flooding like Boscastle 2004:



Or June 2012, one of the three worst June's in history:



Northern blocking nearly always leads to awful summer weather here in the UK. By design it has to - it forces the jet stream much further south and gets low pressure tracking and stuck over the UK. I'll have whatever you are smoking...

And a well-placed HP over Scandinavia can bring hot air westward out of mainland Europe, no? You really must stop reading model-predictions as though they were gospel?

[MP-R]

28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And a well-placed HP over Scandinavia can bring hot air westward out of mainland Europe, no? You really must stop reading model-predictions as though they were gospel?

That tends to happen more when there is low pressure to the west/northwest. A Scandi high starts becoming a problem when it moves westwards like in the above charts and the low pressure train cranks up underneath.

Fortunately, it's far too early to start worrying about stuff like that. In the short term, I'm more annoyed that yet another May trip to Cornwall next week is going to be blighted by poor conditions. And some people say May is a good month... 

[mb018538]

25 minutes ago, MP-R said:

That tends to happen more when there is low pressure to the west/northwest. A Scandi high starts becoming a problem when it moves westwards like in the above charts and the low pressure train cranks up underneath.

Fortunately, it's far too early to start worrying about stuff like that. In the short term, I'm more annoyed that yet another May trip to Cornwall next week is going to be blighted by poor conditions. And some people say May is a good month... 

Yep, can't really call a Scandi high 'northern blocking' anyway.

The 6z GFS on the other hand ticks every northern blocking box going. This is at day 9. What a dreadful looking chart.

[StormChaseUK]

Could be a blip, might switch back on 12z or 18z

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yep, can't really call a Scandi high 'northern blocking' anyway.

The 6z GFS on the other hand ticks every northern blocking box going. This is at day 9. What a dreadful looking chart.

Except for when it suits the narrative?

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Except for when it suits the narrative?

No. I’d never class a scandi high as true northern blocking. You need a big Arctic/Greenland high like the 6z to tick that box.

[Earthshine]

22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

No. I’d never class a scandi high as true northern blocking. You need a big Arctic/Greenland high like the 6z to tick that box.

I mean northern blocking isn't limited to just Arctic, you can northern blocking at any longitude in the high latitudes.

[Scorcher]

Hopefully just a rogue run from the GFS- a truly awful run for most of it. Hard to come back from a setup like it shows after the weekend.

Hopefully as we get closer to the weekend we will see an eastward correction of the high pressure.

That's certainly what happened with the recent high pressure (much to the disappointment of many) but on this occasion it would be a welcome development.

[Guest]

Hmm not a good pattern, the number of milder ensemble members over the bank holiday weekend are starting to thin out slightly. The mean is almost useless in these situation with such a wide spread. A handful of exceptionally hot members offset an increasing bunch of runs indicating a tough plonking down over the uk in about 10days time. 
 

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

I mean northern blocking isn't limited to just Arctic, you can northern blocking at any longitude in the high latitudes.

True. But you don't really associate summer Scandi highs with northern blocking. Look at August 1995/1997 for example.
They just don't appear with loads of Arctic blocking etc.

[Guest]

56 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

No. I’d never class a scandi high as true northern blocking. You need a big Arctic/Greenland high like the 6z to tick that box.

A Scandinavian high is not northerly blocking really given most of it is in the mid latitudes. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Yep, can't really call a Scandi high 'northern blocking' anyway.

The 6z GFS on the other hand ticks every northern blocking box going. This is at day 9. What a dreadful looking chart.

The GFS seems to be flip flopping around currently, so wouldn't worry too much.

[Singularity]

One cutoff low near the Azores sets the GFS 06z on its -NAO path. Probably overdoing the duration of the setup but still, it’s a major fork in the road point whether that low cuts off or not.

Statistics favour it not; the models often do it too readily in the 6+ day range. Yet with ECM having explored it a lot Thu-Fri, it would be daring to dismiss it, despite the model having steadily drifted away from it until fully switching tracks this morning.

If it doesn’t cut off then the ridge amplification - driven by tropical Kelvin wave action - should focus over NW Europe instead. This is the same sort of situation as we saw back in late December when a -NAO could have kicked off big time but instead we saw an exceptionally mild high over W Europe.

[Methuselah]

29 minutes ago, Alderc said:

A Scandinavian high is not northerly blocking really given most of it is in the mid latitudes. 

What Scandinavia? Get a grip!

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What Scandinavia? Get a grip!

Mid latitude extends to at least 60°north (some definitions raise that to 63 or even 66° north) either way all of those therefore included most or even all of Scandinavia in the mid latitudes. 
 

Edited May 21, 2022 by Alderc

[Frosty.]

I’m NO expert..BUT.. I know what I see… .and that is an increasingly Azores ridge / high dominated longer term outlook according to the GEFS 6z mean which coincides with the beginning of what will hopefully be…a GREAT meteorological summer…ps.. alcohol inspires me.. hiccup!!! ️   

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by jon snow

[Dancerwithwings]

39 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What Scandinavia? Get a grip!

Agreed...High pressure when situated solely over Scandinavia, with low pressure to the North of the British Isles, blocked from travelling any further east by them HP’s....well for me unless I’m wrong, that’s Northern blocking!!!

[Frosty.]

I’m still catching up.. ..anyway, the longer term ECMWF 0z ensemble mean didn’t look too bad either! .. …or am I wrong?.. I like feedback! .. or do I? ….for sure I would prefer a plume.. but don’t we have plenty more time for that??!! ..even assuming the longer term ECM is right?…wow, weather is so complicated innit! 

Edited May 21, 2022 by jon snow

[summer blizzard]

Worth noting the Euro ensemble charts above. 36 hours ago, they were adamant that the Euro operational with its Greenland heights were isolated, now this is not the case as we see. 

The tend for now at least is not good for those who want summer to arrive (I'm not one of them).

[Cambrian]

There’s been a lot of mid-latitude Scandinavian northern blocking this spring.

Northern blocking taking hold

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

High pressure to the North of the British Isles will become dominant during the upcoming week and is likely to take a bit of a while to shift once it arrives.

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z longer term into the start of this meteorological summer….what can I say!…what dreams may come…love that movie! ️

 

 

[mushymanrob]

5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And a well-placed HP over Scandinavia can bring hot air westward out of mainland Europe, no? You really must stop reading model-predictions as though they were gospel?

remind me again, when was the last time we had a hot easterly ?

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

remind me again, when was the last time we had a hot easterly ?

I’m not the sharpest tool in the woodshed.. … but doesn’t Eastern Europe /  Russia get pretty hot in summer? …ergo, if we get an easterly in summer, or southeasterly, let’s not nit pick too much between an easterly / southeasterly!…the continent hots up..even if we don’t get an E’ly / SE’ly.. yes we have a little problem with the North Sea..pfft woteva!  

Anyway…I would be happy with high pressure building in at the end of spring / start of summer and looking at the latest mean charts! ….there’s a good chance of that currently!   ️ ? 

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

remind me again, when was the last time we had a hot easterly ?

1976, 1983, 1995? And you'd be surprised at how hot NW Scotland can be on an easterly. We had several days in the 30sC in late June-early July 1995. And that was by Inverness! Come to think of it, the last two weeks of May 2012 (or was it June?) weren't too bad either?