Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If low pressure did setup to East and we drag in some warm continental air than cold surely that could setup a thunderstom break out from the east.

 

Was it not a few years back we watched huge MCS storms form over the Netherlands and drifted East to affect us

[mushymanrob]

17 hours ago, jon snow said:

I’m not the sharpest tool in the woodshed.. … but doesn’t Eastern Europe /  Russia get pretty hot in summer? …ergo, if we get an easterly in summer, or southeasterly, let’s not nit pick too much between an easterly / southeasterly!…the continent hots up..even if we don’t get an E’ly / SE’ly.. yes we have a little problem with the North Sea..pfft woteva!  

Anyway…I would be happy with high pressure building in at the end of spring / start of summer and looking at the latest mean charts! ….there’s a good chance of that currently!   ️ ? 

 

yep .... but how often do we get a hot easterly?...
 

17 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

1976, 1983, 1995? And you'd be surprised at how hot NW Scotland can be on an easterly. We had several days in the 30sC in late June-early July 1995. And that was by Inverness! Come to think of it, the last two weeks of May 2012 (or was it June?) weren't too bad either?

youve just listed hot summers... have you any charts to illustrate these hot easterlies?
 

16 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

August 2020 brought five consecutive days of 34C to the south coast off an easterly - can't remember if it was strictly driven by a scandi high.

yep, the southeast did...

the point im making is that i agree an easterly in summer can be and has been hot... but how often do we get that?...

anyway, thats irrelevant now because all models suggest high pressure to our near west will produce a lengthy spell of a  flow from the northeasterly quadrant.

[StormChaseUK]

Cloud cover can be overestimated this time of year.  My app yesterday had 15, 16c and overcast today it's 18, 19c sunny and very warm.

2nd-5th june period is long way off to be accurate and it's a much better situation than having atlatic fronts come in with wash out.

*06z is flipflopping all over the place- warmth is back
 

Edited May 22, 2022 by StormChaseUK

[summer blizzard]

Not seeing the 6z flip flop. We have a cyclonic few days, high builds over the UK, high retrogresses to Greenland. All models more or less support this for the ten day period. 

Pressure build is stronger afterwards on today's 6z but even by day 10 the models don't verify 60% of the time.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

yep .... but how often do we get a hot easterly?...

youve just listed hot summers... have you any charts to illustrate these hot easterlies?

As you seem to be more concerned with 'having the last word' than with much else, I'll duck out now and say: whatever!

[Cambrian]

A mixed weekend for us, beautiful yesterday, 17 degrees in the afternoon, lovely feel to it all. Today not so good, up in the mist, steady drizzle and 12 degrees - we grab it while we can!

Next weekend on the 6z GFS operational run, looking promising to my eye, on the cool side in terms of air mass, but at this time of the year, the sun is strong and if the winds stay light, it can be very good weather. It will probably feel warmer out and about than the day 7 chart suggests. 

   

Good pinch of salt needed after that. Hopefully the high can build a bit and stick about for the following week, or perhaps get pushed away for a couple of days only to build back again from the south, like shown here at day 13, with some good looking warmth building in again for the first weekend in June. A bit of luck and timing running our way and it could be a good few days for the extra break.
 
 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

As you seem to be more concerned with 'having the last word' than with much else, I'll duck out now and say: whatever!

asking for chart evidence to support your claim isnt "having the last word"  m8... its a perfectly reasonable request, or can we just claim anything here without evidence?...

regardless, my point was that hot easterlies are rare, and shouldnt be relied on as a route to summer warmth.. thats all.

[Guest]

Unfortunately while the GFS Ops run looks great it’s now a sizeable outlier and the means are starting to get a bit shaky as well. 
 

We could well be damage limitation with regards to the first have of June IMO. 
 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

asking for chart evidence to support your claim isnt "having the last word"  m8... its a perfectly reasonable request, or can we just claim anything here without evidence?...

regardless, my point was that hot easterlies are rare, and shouldnt be relied on as a route to summer warmth.. thats all.

Whatever!

[Singularity]

A more typical rapid shift to west-based negative NAO from the GFS 06z (it doesn’t only hold truth in winter!).

Its persistence in initiating the -NAO is noteworthy, as is ECM’s return to that ship.

UKM is still a notable naysayer, though, with the cutoff low setting up much further southwest and supporting a mid-Atlantic high with eastward extension at least as far as Ireland. In winter it’s often said that cold spells are unlikely when UKM isn’t supporting the initial setup stage. Could the same apply now, late in spring?

[Frosty.]

Looking. at the longer term GEFS 6z mean…I’ve seen worse. .. give me another drink and I will paint y’all  an even more beautiful picture.. jeez Louise..roll on summer.. please god nudge that high a bit further east and we are in business!!  

Edited May 22, 2022 by jon snow

[Cambrian]

Nice looking trend for both of the next two weekends from the 0z GEFS mean too, pressure on a well-timed rise toward each Saturday and a marked improvement from where we are this weekend. The positioning of the high is encouraging too, highest pressure on the Europe chart over and to the west of Ireland for the first weekend in June.

 

No signs of any concerted precipitation over either weekend so definitely looking good at this very early stage (day 12 / 13) for a special bank holiday that isn’t a washout.
  

By no means looking like a sizzler as it is, but mid-teens at 7pm for many and likely dry, fair and pleasant, a pullover or jacket a genuine option for the meticulously fashion savvy, as of course it always is.

[damianslaw]

Models continue to support high pressure to our west or north west. After a few changeable days, outlook looking calmer and fairly dry as we end May. As others have said no heatwave at all and possibly alot of cloud about, but no washout either. I'll take mid to high teens and sunny spells dry weather than either warm and wet low 20s or cold and wet mid teens. Dry sunny and low 20s would be nice but late May/early June perhaps a bit too early to expect such conditions, at least here! 

[Captain Shortwave]

The UKMO again goes with a solution of splitting the trough with a low moving over the high. This pushes the high over the U.K. instead of keeping it west/north west at least in the shorter term.

The GFS is different with the trough, but it is different to the previous run too.

   

[Scorcher]

An excellent UKMO for the weekend. GFS seems to be trending the right way as well, although we certainly need that high pressure further east.

There was a lot of pessimism earlier in here but I think there's a good chance of eastward corrections over the next few days.

It wouldn't take much of a shift to give most of the country a warm, sunny weekend.

[Frosty.]

Wowzers!…is that a word?… ..anyway, who cares, the Ukmo 12h looks great @ T+144 hours & spurs won 5-0 and secured champions league football next season!!! .. as for arsenal..go back to woolwich, north London is ours! ️
 

Edited May 22, 2022 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Wowzers!…is that a word?… ..anyway, who cares, the Ukmo 12h looks great @ T+144 hours & spurs won 5-0 and secured champions league football next season!!! .. as for arsenal..go back to woolwich, north London is ours! ️
 

It's Stick it Up Your weeble.nal Day!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the mid / longer term GEFS 12z into the start of the meteorological summer, I kid you not, there is some absolute crud!…but, there’s some nice charts too…and I choose to believe the nice charts will win..like spurs today!…COYS..Antonio,Antonio, Antonio!!!! ️

 

 

Edited May 22, 2022 by jon snow

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Wowzers!…is that a word?… ..anyway, who cares, the Ukmo 12h looks great @ T+144 hours & spurs won 5-0 and secured champions league football next season!!! .. as for arsenal..go back to woolwich, north London is ours! ️
 

Congratulations to the Soccer Chickens for grabbing that 4th place. 
 

Let’s just hope high pressure doesn’t go the way of an Arsenal Champions League push - Full of promise only to capitulate at the end! 

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Congratulations to the Soccer Chickens for grabbing that 4th place. 
 

Let’s just hope high pressure doesn’t go the way of an Arsenal Champions League push - Full of promise only to capitulate at the end! 

There’s lots to like about the ECMWF 12z operational, let’s not dwell on the later stages, let’s embrace the marked improvement before that and hope for a better ending on subsequent runs!…. ..chin up fellow fine weather fans… for sure, later in the week ahead does look much nicer! …as for arrse-nil..the chickens.  have come home to roost.. and PS.. what’s so bad about sunshine and heavy thundery showers??.. I love it!! ⛈ 

Edited May 22, 2022 by jon snow

[Cambrian]

Similar general picture on the 12z GEFS for next weekend, good run to run consistency for the GEFS mean. Temperatures mid to high teens during the day for many. The following weekend is looking a little more ponderous than on the 6z.

 

The op is on the higher side of the mean for pressure around day 8, high pressure in an excellent position to block the Atlantic and no path over the ocean for the jet stream. 

 

The concern emerges around day 10, though the op now lower than the mean, the high pulling northwest with a risk of low pressure running around its southern flank off the mid Atlantic and / or shallow lows continuing to plague us from the north, the 12z ECM toying with something similar, a bit slower with the drift northwest - GFS / ECM

 

so that by day 12 / 13 on the GFS, it’s all a bit iffy, with the Atlantic jet stream back in play and a low formed over the North Sea at its left exit.

 

It’s looking like a marginal setup at this stage for 2-5 June and could all be down to the fine detail, maybe not giving us a clear picture until just a few days before. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Temperature profiles at day ten look consistent from gfs and ecm for some frosty nights given any clear spells overnight ,as we greet June...

[Frosty.]

To me..to you.. ..the longer term ECMWF 12z ensemble mean looks better than the op?..or maybe I’m still looking through beer goggles!..anyway, I will be sober in the morning.. ..hiccup!
 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

An excellent UKMO for the weekend. GFS seems to be trending the right way as well, although we certainly need that high pressure further east.

There was a lot of pessimism earlier in here but I think there's a good chance of eastward corrections over the next few days.

It wouldn't take much of a shift to give most of the country a warm, sunny weekend.

More interested in Whit holiday week, looks vile on last few GFS runs

[Guest]

Slippery downward slope on the ECM ensembles, majority of members support the northwesterly regression of high pressure and the mean is propped up just a handful of much warmer ensembles.

Start of June could end up being a car crash…