Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Guest]

ECM and GFS Ops couldn’t be more different. The ECM ensembles are pretty ugly to be honest but GFS offers some hope. All to play for IMO 

 

 

[damianslaw]

Think GFS has lost the plot in the longer time frame, it seems stuck.. low pressure over west mid atlantic goes nowhere.. one for the bin I think..

Alas nearer timescale all models agree on high pressure exerting influence through the latter part of the coming week, but in a position that won't result in anything especially warm. Indeed we pull in quite chilly uppers and a nagging NE wind for northern and eastern parts, showery here, but probably dry and sunny further west and south. 

Into next week ECM sharpens the trough over scandi and heights to the NE become very strong, a chilly north easterly. UKMO looking to go the same way. 

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Totally different patterns in the two months though. June 2007 was a far better month than 2012 which was awful from the word go.

You say that but the anomalies i posted from the same dates are very similar..... unlike other years. The point is that the anomalies for both years on the same date were very similar and both lead to a very wet June, and subsequent very poor summer.

[Scorcher]

The GFS is still looking better for the weekend than the ECM. Don't be surprised to see a shift towards the GFS in the morning.

[kieranweatherfan]

Another good run from the GFS, perhaps a trend emerging 

[mushymanrob]

the anomalies do not support the GFS which brings the high closer to us... they insist that the high will remain to our West feeding us a cool NW/NE airflow from early next week and right through the bank holiday period. On the plus side, if these charts verify (which is likely) then at least it wont be too wet. Nor do they suggest a Southerly tracking jetstream .

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

[Sky Full]

This GFS 0z rainfall accumulation chart shows a fairly dry end to the month of May in many central and south eastern areas with less than 3mm in the south east by 01/06 and less than 5mm widely in central areas…..

[sheikhy]

Ouch!!back to northern blocking for next week!!hopefully its not too wet!!

[mb018538]

As expected - GFS has ditched the high pressure setup, and has gone back into line with the other models.

Looks like a run of cool days from Saturday to around Wednesday next week before a recovery to nearer average. Some areas may not even reach double figures.



Got a feeling the first half of June is going to be very disappointing now. Global momentum is falling, northern blocking is starting to dominate, and the MJO is cycling through phase 7, which doesn't tend to translate to anything good for the UK at the start of June:

[mountain shadow]

Dreadful runs. Suppressed temperatures the order of the day, hopefully not too wet.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Dreadful runs. Suppressed temperatures the order of the day, hopefully not too wet.

Yep, many in the east likely won’t be able to differentiate from the sort of weather you’d experience in early March. 
 

It’s a poor outlook and poor start to summer on the cards, cold, damp and drizzly in places (while not overly wet) Anywhere gets close to 20C Sunday-Wednesday they’ll be doing really well. 
 

A really depressed set of gfs ensembles 

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone. 

Time for a look at the CFS v2 four weekly anomalies, just to see if these can help shed any more light for other members....

Week 1 - 24th to the 30th May: High pressure looks to be centered out to our west, and would therefore be bringing in a more northerly type airflow. Certainly not a wash out.

Week 2 - 31st May to the 6th June: High pressure looks to be extending up towards our north and east, but again extending its influence over us here in the UK. Again, no heatwave, but certainly not a washout either.

Week 3 - 7th to the 13th June: High pressure retreats towards the north pole! Hello Northern blocking? Low(er) pressure looks to be moving in off the Atlantic and over the top of Scotland. ... Is this the start of the traditional European Summer Monsoon?

Week 4 - 14th to the 20th June: With the exception of the far north west of Scotland, low pressure looks to be over us here in the UK. 


Sorry if that's not what folks want to read, but that's what the models are showing. 

[mb018538]

No joy in the ECM clusters either - all three of the day 10-15 scenarios have high pressure to N/NW of the UK. Just like clockwork - summer officially starts, and the weather goes down the spout. Got to love the UK.

 

[Guest]

Just now, mb018538 said:

No joy in the ECM clusters either - all three of the day 10-15 scenarios have high pressure to N/NW of the UK. Just like clockwork - summer officially starts, and the weather goes down the spout. Got to love the UK.

 

Yep, while not a washout temps in the low to mid teens under cloud is nearly as bad. Hard to see any significant improvement before the end of the first tercile of June. 

While we've had a such better spring than last year we are still going to be entering Summer with a lower max temp (22.1C) than last last Spring and fewer days reaching 20C (just 4).

[TwisterGirl81]

Whilst the OOZ GFS run doesn't scream 'heatwave' it could be a lot worse and bank holiday weekend even looks pleasant with temps in the low 20's for most in the south and sunny skies though the east might be more cloudy at times  (I saw a 25c in the usual spot for next sunday 'London)  Hopefully it improves more as we get closer to that time.

[StormChaseUK]

Models flip flopping again, still fail to believe high pressure won't build from SW. 

[Row w]

I'm no expert when it comes to the model charts but if this cool weather is a definite I for one choose to go into hibernation for the next few weeks I cant be dealing with another cool summer 2021 was bad enough in August  bring back the warmth and fingers crossed they switch at the last minute

[joggs]

You couldn't make it up. Retrogressing high, winds from n or ne to start summer. 

If what is showing on the model's were only winter.......sigh.

Background sigs also not good for the 2 Nd half of summer.

I'll see you on here in November for the mild mush chase...

[Mapantz]

Model discussion only in here folks..

Plenty of other threads for moans and general weather chat.

[StormChaseUK]

The 06z might improve,..  ah down to single figures in east. oh dear. Amazing how the models can change so much in 12 hours

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, StormChaseUK said:

The 06z might improve,..  ah down to single figures in east. oh dear. Amazing how the models can change so much in 12 hours

 

The 06z Ops run from GFS is grim at the surface, cold and cloudy. Sunday looking really cold, barely double digits in places. Lots of place today just 12-13C today under cloud and drizzle, probably several days of that next week but with the wind from the north east. 
 

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say any drastic improvement that shows up in the 8-12day range needs to be treated extremely cautiously, 3 time now in 3weeks significant improvements have failed to materialise (bar the odd day) Really need the better conditions inside 4-5days to pay any real attention I feel. 
 

Awful ensembles now through next week

Edited May 25, 2022 by Alderc

[StormChaseUK]

The pressure build over Russia does seem to cause low pressure to get stuck over us in summer months

Very unlucky to be stuck between the 2 areas of high pressure

[Sky Full]

2 hours ago, StormChaseUK said:

The pressure build over Russia does seem to cause low pressure to get stuck over us in summer months

Very unlucky to be stuck between the 2 areas of high pressure

Correct me if I’m wrong, but that chart is 14 days away?  I don’t think we should be getting worried about charts in far FI.   Earlier this month the charts were all showing an unbroken warm sunny spell of five or six days mid month which changed to cool, cloudy and showery with only four days notice.  I don’t see any reason why the real weather in early June can’t overturn the current charts, maybe more than once, by the 1st June.

[Methuselah]

Oh dear! Not the greatest Ten-Day Trend I've ever seen:

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear! Not the greatest Ten-Day Trend I've ever seen:

 

Then I ain't watching! *Strop* ~ *Folds arms*

Don't watch it ain't happenin' right?!