Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Hope the Gfs 0z is wrong which is showing cyclonic conditions just after the Jubilee weekend!

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Hope the Gfs 0z is wrong which is showing cyclonic conditions just after the Jubilee weekend!

GFS produces the worst of the worst following and the end of the jubilee weekend, it’s so bad it has to be ignored, GEM attempts to go down that route but quite so severe. 
 

Fortunately GFS later on is a massive low pressure outlier. 
 

 

And actually quite a few of the ensembles support the more impressive UKMO which is much more palatable and builds pressure through Friday (hopefully not more high pressure trolling from the models) 

UKMO at 168hrs looks good 

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

On a positive footnote..  …all’s well that ends well on the Gfs 0z operational!   ️ 

 

 

[mb018538]

39 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS produces the worst of the worst following and the end of the jubilee weekend, it’s so bad it has to be ignored, GEM attempts to go down that route but quite so severe. 
 

Fortunately GFS later on is a massive low pressure outlier. 
 

 

And actually quite a few of the ensembles support the more impressive UKMO which is much more palatable and builds pressure through Friday (hopefully not more high pressure trolling from the models) 

UKMO at 168hrs looks good 

 

 

 

We may sneak a day or two (or three) of finer weather on the UKMO or ECM runs, but it isn’t a robust set up and will likely just collapse away like the ECM does. Until that northern blocking pattern starts to ease then we’re unlikely to see much in the way of lasting settled or warmer weather.

That said, it’s not looking like the wettest spell considering the set up. Unsettled yes….total washout? Not at the moment.

[northwestsnow]

Well it's a lovely day locally but again it's nippy out of the sun.

Really hard to know how this will play out longer term - looks possible we could see a short spell of Easterlies with the low sat to the SW but with blocking highs to our North it's unlikely any lows will become cut off to our west,unlikely but not impossible..

[Guest]

GFS 06Z is hugely improved from some its previous iterations building high pressure in quite strong from Wednesday onwards and is a big shift towards what the UKMO model has been churning out.  

[StormChaseUK]

The 06z does try to build that HP again from the SW.  

[mushymanrob]

Currently IMHO my favoured NOAA anomaly charts are inconsistent and has a confidence rating of 1/5 ... so are imho next to useless until theres consistency and a higher confidence rating.

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Currently IMHO my favoured NOAA anomaly charts are inconsistent and has a confidence rating of 1/5 ... so are imho next to useless until theres consistency and a higher confidence rating.

That may be because the key uncertainties are at an earlier timeframe than those charts present?  Still markedly different solutions being modelled at day 6, although I suspect the odds may be shortening on the settled outcome for next weekend, let’s see if the 12z runs support that view.  

[Frosty.]

You know what guys, I think I could easily start getting more enthused about June if there is more of this like the GEFS 6z indicates! ️ ? ⛈   

 

Edited May 28, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

The ECMWF 0z ensemble mean slipped under my radar again… …I really must get a new radar! …anyway, let’s just say, I’ve seen worse regarding it’s mid / longer term prognosis!   

Edited May 28, 2022 by jon snow

[minus10]

52 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That may be because the key uncertainties are at an earlier timeframe than those charts present?  Still markedly different solutions being modelled at day 6, although I suspect the odds may be shortening on the settled outcome for next weekend, let’s see if the 12z runs support that view.  

Maybe the Queen has had a word with 'you know who' to make sure at least next Sunday is reasonable...??

[Frosty.]

Hey guys, the icon 12z ain’t bad..it shows high pressure in early June!, which is good!?.. am I right?..or am I right? …Ja das ist gut wetter Ja?   

 

 

 

Edited May 28, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

Gravity keeps pulling me down.. as long as you’re on the ground I’ll stick around..stick around.. I’ll stick around!… ..wow I’m so obsessed by that song space man! …anyway, moving swiftly on.. the Ukmo 12h ends well as high pressure starts to build in!… ️  

 

Edited May 28, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 12h / z woteva.. @ T+168 hours is even better!  

at least i’m trying.. aye frosty, very….!   ️ 

 

 

Edited May 28, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

On current evidence, the GEFS 12z mean gradually improves over time which is reflected by some summery perturbations…I won’t try to make a forecast, good luck to those who can..but at least the mean improves which  brings with it a better chance of decent early summer weather?!…there’s other reasons to be optimistic, the Ukmo for example…it’s not all doom and gloom for sure! …as for the football, I’m a neutral.. good luck to both teams and may the best team win.. as long as it’s not Liverpool! !  

Edited May 28, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

The ECMWF 12z operational isn’t bad overall, the trough over the u k next week gradually fills in situ and pressure then rises considerably, and it warms up too!..signs of change from the west at the end but honestly, I’ve seen worse runs recently..Ciao!  

 

 

[Uncertainty]

 

 

Laughable consistency from the GFS

UKMO, which has been so solid on a strong ridge building over the SW low from Thursday, has decided to throw a wobbler.

Latest run for Friday AM

Last night’s effort, more representative of recent days runs

 

Nevertheless, a flimsy consensus is merging for late next week and weekend and the U.K. high option is emerging as favourite.

ECM Saturday

GEM 

 

I think the GEM sums up the situation.

- HP looks to build but it’s strength is uncertain and modelling is not fully decided on it. Even if it did it wouldn’t be particularly warm, especially further SE

- There are two interloper lows, one to the SSW and one to the NW that could easily spoil the jubilee celebrations for many

- The previous scenario, where the low to the SW fully phased with the U.K. low and troughing to the NE looks less likely now

Were the Hp to materialise there looks to be more pressure on it from the W from next Sunday night onwards, the ECM has been consistent on this in recent days

There could well then be a thundery breakdown, followed by westerlies, more HP or who knows what. You get the feeling there’s another twist in this jubilee saga yet. Things do look better than a few days ago though.

 

[Scorcher]

One thing that looks nailed on is a warm up of some description. That's a big improvement from a couple of days ago when there were no signs up a warm up at all. I must say this has been one of the strangest periods of model watching I can ever remember, with so little consistency from day to day.

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 0z @T+168 hours looks jolly decent to me…compared to most of next week! ️ 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

On 23/05/2022 at 14:15, mushymanrob said:

Thats not strictly true though is it.... hi Matt...
June 2012 and 2007 were very cool and wet, they started "summer" with northern blocking, and that early block prevailed on and off throughout most of the Summer. In fact, a cursory view through the historic charts of the bottom 13 Summers (using Weather Historys "Manchester Summer Index) nearly all started June with northern blocking or as in a couple of cases, blocking to our near West.
We get "good" and "bad" summers because of repeating patterns, and northern blocking establishing in early June DOES or CAN shape the rest of the season as our poorest summers can testify.

Yeh you have a point Rob...I think its me just pointing out the fact that not all poor sypnotics at this early point of the season will spell the end.  I think we had a lot of Northern Blocking to start June just a few years back,but we we still managed to get several noticeable Heatwaves going. 

There seems to be a miss mash of signals out there right now regarding our conditions for the next few weeks...surely you've all noticed those met office updates just lately! They are being drastically altered on a daily basis to the point of stating....it could be equally dry or wet! 

I think perhaps even those usually steadfast noaa charts are struggling a little at the moment also! 

To sum up next week I would say generally unsettled too start with showers,heavy at times and rather cool...but as many have stated it should begin to warm up beyond Wednesday  

Showers perhaps more focused towards the North and East with much better conditions further West. At this stage the jubilee weekend looks far more positive with temps nudging the low 20s....again especially away from far Eastern parts!  It looks too remain quite a slack pressure set up throughout.

So any of you celebrating...dont be ashamed to crack open the champagne....just don't be talking it to the street.... I don't want any trouble around these parts

Enjoy if you can folks.

[Mike Poole]

The model output has improved considerably over the last couple of days in terms of what might be on offer for the bank holiday weekend, and beyond.  This morning’s ECM clusters T120-T168:

It does look like the UK weather will be largely high pressure influenced on all of these by T168, i.e. next week’s trough will be squidged out NE.  Can’t call it completely because yesterdays GFS 18z still had the trough remaining in situ over the UK, but these runs are becoming fewer and far between now.  

Longer term is looking promising, here T192-T240:

Cluster 1 takes the high to our east, 60% probability, while cluster 2 allows the high to dissipate allowing the Atlantic in.  

[StormChaseUK]

Slow progress but there are signs that the HP from SW keeps trying to build in, just need to let those pesky lows from the North disolve away.

It's not ideal but it's better than having the low right over the UK, if that second low can slip further south around 10th June we could be in for a very hot plume. FI.

Edited May 29, 2022 by StormChaseUK

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Never seen a continuously rising GFS op in the ensembles!

[Frosty.]

I want a good early summer!.. (I want a very good summer)!!!   you guys who know me… …know that’s true! …. ….anyway, hopefully these GEFS 6z members are right! ️  

 

Edited May 29, 2022 by jon snow