Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[sheikhy]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks very nice this morning ..

day 7 onwards very warm !

Yup defo improvement this morning in terms of warmth and humidity from all 3 models but especially ecm!!

[northwestsnow]

Of course EC may be an outlier so best to see where the det sits.

Hopefully a cold outlier

[kold weather]

Models have become wetter over the 4 day period coming up, more showers on Thursday-Friday, a wider coverage of frontal rain on Sunday, etc. Still not a write-off, but not the best weekend up coming for many, especially the south. Scotland looking decent over the weekend (Sat/Sun) as the HP sinks southwards however, maybe N.England as well looks decent at least on Saturday.

With that being said the remains of Agatha from the EPAC looks like it may well set out a change towards a more settled pattern. Very early days to know whether anything will even form from it and how it will impact European weather patterns.

Edited June 1, 2022 by kold weather

[Scorcher]

26 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Models have become wetter over the 4 day period coming up, more showers on Thursday-Friday, a wider coverage of frontal rain on Sunday, etc. Still not a write-off, but not the best weekend up coming for many, especially the south. Scotland looking decent over the weekend (Sat/Sun) as the HP sinks southwards however, maybe N.England as well looks decent at least on Saturday.

With that being said the remains of Agatha from the EPAC looks like it may well set out a change towards a more settled pattern. Very early days to know whether anything will even form from it and how it will impact European weather patterns.

The Met don't seem to agree with you on it becoming wetter- if anything it now looks drier in the south with a mostly sunny day in London on Friday. I can't really see where the showers are tomorrow either? Perhaps you can enlighten me on that one.

Looks like it could be fairly cloudy for many over the weekend but I don't see a huge amount of rain.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Since we’re in June, decided to change the thread title to reflect the start of the new season we’re in. (I suppose for some, Summer may not necessarily feel like it takes off till June 21st or till we get weather to match it). Tis looking like it could be quite mixed at the moment, although certainly still chances for this weekend, for example, to become more widely settled depending how influential the High Pressure over Northern UK becomes. 

As ever, do make sure to keep things friendly in here, which for the most part it is. And should you come across any problems and/or naughty posts we might have missed, please report them to the moderators or admins who will deal with the situation as soon as possible. Cheers all  

[Downburst]

Latest ECM and a look at pressure charts and rainfall accumulation over a 6 hour period, pervious 6 hours on each chart. looks like will be showery, but most places only getting passing showers if it is wet. I think these charts generally look worse than the reality

 

 

 

[Guest]

12 hours ago, Alderc said:

Completely disagree, the charts posted by @mb018538 show temps massively suppressed for almost all of England, all of wales some places there barely into double figures, cold in Republic of Ireland and south east Scotland. In fact only the extreme south coast and north west of Scotland is approaching normal.  

A glance across the models this morning suggests a more even picture, Chris.

I stand my conclusion that those places with the suppressed temperatures on Sunday will be the places stuck under the heavy convective precipitation. GFS for instance has it across the far south, while the rest of us see temps in the high teens and drier conditions. ICON has the precip moving north and staying intact, which means we all get a turn but with the south turns warmer as the cloud breaks behind. UKMO on meteociel has temperatures widely 17-20C on Sunday across England/Wales. 

I think it is prudent to not always focus on the worst-case scenario as it isn't necessarily a fair reflection of the model output. My conclusion for Sunday is the further south you are the more risk of seeing cooler weather, cloud and heavy rain. The rest of us will see a fair bit of cloud but some decent brighter spells too with temps around average   Time will tell if the trough corrects north but, more often than not, the opposite is true.

Edited June 1, 2022 by Steel City Skies

[kold weather]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

The Met don't seem to agree with you on it becoming wetter- if anything it now looks drier in the south with a mostly sunny day in London on Friday. I can't really see where the showers are tomorrow either? Perhaps you can enlighten me on that one.

Looks like it could be fairly cloudy for many over the weekend but I don't see a huge amount of rain.

ARPEGE, ICON, ECM, GFS, etc all have showers in the northern half of the country tomorrow, some to bigger degrees than others. Probably a classic sunshine and showers type day. All down to the trough feature coming down form the NW.

Thursday and Friday look good across the south. Saturday/Sunday better in the north. 

Timing will be key during the daytime, as there will 100% be troughs and fronts swinging through. If we get real lucky then they will all pass through overnight and we will get away with a cloudy weekend during the daytime, if we are unlucky than the south will get a washout on Sunday. However most models are agreeing on something like 20-30mm falling in the south from  late Friday through to Sunday. Its just WHEN it falls thats not sure about.

I've always said though that I don't think this will be some disastrous weekend, far from it. Everywhere will likely get 2 good days, may get lucky with a 3rd in the south should the frontal/trough features really take their time (ARPEGE is a good example). 

Also with regards to temperatures, the set-up isn't that cold looking really so outside of the frontal zones 18-20c in any sunshine won't feel too bad at this time of year given sunshine strength.

EDIT- should there be sunshine in the SE on Saturday and the front is delayed could well get upto 24-25c locally btw. But that is a huge if still at this stage.

Edited June 1, 2022 by kold weather

[kold weather]

13 hours ago, Alderc said:

BBC still saying this evening where we see the sun on Saturday and Sunday temps will shoot into the comfortably into the 20s?

Most models have large swathes suck in the low to mid teens. 

Worth looking at the 850hpa temps though, broadly around 10c for the south east, so not too cool really.

Given typical lapse rates at this time of year anywhere that gets a decent amount of sun over the weekend could well see 23-25c in that region, perhaps more like 19-21c elsewhere.

Of course that is cloud dependant, little too early to have any confidence on cloud forecasts, though I'd say Saturday has a better chance than Sunday right now, but maybe the timing of the fronts will improve.

 

[Roadrunner]

I may be wrong but with each run for Sunday, morning at least, the trough is being corrected southwards. A few more shunts and the whole South may stay more or less dry. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Worth noting that the weekend is not set in stone. The GFS has a thoroughly wet Sunday across the south. On the other hand the UKMO is likely to be mostly dry for all as the cold pool is drawn into the incoming Atlantic trough rather than pushing east and phasing with a shallow low moving out of France.

The UKMO is isolated but the evolution is very subtle and could go either way for a few runs yet. Not to mention the position of the fronts could be corrected north or south to completely change the weekend output as well, even if the two systems phase.

Edited June 1, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Worth noting that the weekend is not set in stone. The GFS has a thoroughly wet Sunday across the south. On the other hand the UKMO is likely to be mostly dry for all as the cold pool is drawn into the incoming Atlantic trough rather than pushing east and phasing with a shallow low moving out of France.

The UKMO is isolated but the evolution is very subtle and could go either way for a few runs yet. Not to mention the position of the fronts could be corrected north or south to completely change the weekend output as well, even if the two systems phase.

These upper features are always prone to subtle shifts that can make a very large difference in the models. For example a couple of GFS ensemble runs have a shallower feature which ends up swinging east faster and by Sunday we've got HP aloft. However those really are in the minority still.

Of course UKMO just swaps Sunday with Saturday as the wet day for the south.

GFS 06z isn't bad for much of the country, particularly in the west and the north during the vital Sunday. Sadly its a shocker for the SE/London. 

Still time for it to move further south OR north as others have said.

[dryfie]

I must say that I'm becoming more optimistic with time.  I feared that the west atlantic upper winds would drive the small north atlantic disturbance across the southwest, but the winds have veered somewhat and should now push it southwards.  The surprise may come to the Highlands of Scotland, where maximum valley temperatures at this time of year tend to be higher than forecast.  I remember back in the 80s the senior forecaster ordered that a max temperature of 24 at Aviemore should be ignored, as it was 6 degrees higher than forecast and would be ridiculed, despite the reading being verified by duty staff there!

So the nation should fare well.  Church choir practice this evening, singing 'Yes sir, I can boogey' to queenie on Sunday, and as I said a good let off for Portpatrick.

Sorry, should have suggested that Southrons ignore.

 

[mushymanrob]

Well heres some crumbs of comfort... not that im a big fan of the MJO... with attached composites for June phases 8 and 1

 

[Dangerous55019]

Hello everyone, I did promise that I'd check back in a couple of days to show what the CFS v2 is showing... And here I am! 

Week 1 - 1st to the 7th June: High pressure appears to be out over central and southern parts of main land Europe, then stretching up through western Russia towards the Arctic. Meanwhile there appears to be a trough of low pressure stretching from the central part of the Atlantic, and extending its influence over us here in the UK. Looking at the positioning of things, to me that suggests more of the sunshine and showers routine that we've had for about a week or so now. Certainly not a washout, and feeling quite pleasant in the direct sun.

Week 2 - 8th to the 14th June: Pretty similar to week 1, but with the low pressure moving more towards the northern part of Ireland and western Scotland. So pretty much the same.

Week 3 - 15th to the 21st June: That low pressure area appears to be more centred over Scotland now... Probably the second phase of the European summer monsoon? I'm gonna say more of the sunshine and showers with perhaps longer spells of rain thrown in.

Week 4 - 22nd to the 28th June: The low pressure appears to have retreated out towards the Atlantic, and an area of high pressure cantered over Iceland and Greenland could start to extend its influence over us. But with the position of that low pressure not to far away, we could have a few burst of rain, but it is looking dryer than week 3. Again, it should feel pleasant in the sunshine.


So there you have it! a typical mixed bag of British weather. 

Sorry if that's not what some folks want to see or hear, but I can only say what the model is showing. But its the CFS, and it is a low res model anyway. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z..I’m currently quite happy about how June could evolve?! ?  

 

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by jon snow

[SLEETY]

Usual looking pressure charts after winter with I see  Northern blocking dominating the Weather, what a surprise said nobody ever. 

Could be a scoring summer eventually, then all Northern blocking will vanish again as winter returns 

[Frosty.]

If I lived in the sarf east and spoke with a sarf east accent!.. …I would be quite happy with the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean longer term.. it’s a typical NW / SE split.. just kidding.. my dads an Eastender.. a real eastender!!!!, not the phoney eastenders on the show!     …  

   

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

I take back what I said!… .. Babs windsor was an Eastender from……….. shoreditch .. …god bless her!… and this chart from the GEFS 6z.. I like!  

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by jon snow

[The Tall Weatherman]

I have always put my money on the BBC but this year I hold netweathers thoughts with brief hot spells ! The BBC always goes gloomy everywhere. I have never seen a long range forecast from the BBC mentioning plumes so take it with a pinch of salt.

[Methuselah]

Not a bad Ten-Day Trend from the UK Met:

 

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not a bad Ten-Day Trend from the UK Met:

 

I’m liking that Ed, low to the west, high to the east…hope that’s the story of the summer! …as I said earlier, the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean indicates a NW / SE split which is typically good news for the sarf east!  
…if I lived in the SE..  

Edited June 1, 2022 by jon snow

[mb018538]

Better than this fax chart…

Triple point front stuck in the SE corner, which always means a deluge. UKMO 12z has this too, showing an absolute soaking.

So it looks like the chart that quite a lot of people said wouldn’t happen…..will probably happen.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Better than this fax chart…

Triple point front stuck in the SE corner, which always means a deluge. UKMO 12z has this too, showing an absolute soaking.

So it looks like the chart that quite a lot of people said wouldn’t happen…..will probably happen.

Hopefully old chart, was showing that at 7am today

[kold weather]

Some of the 12z are moving the front in quicker to north than previous runs, so much so that the front reaches northern England by 12z on Sunday and the south goes into a warmer and showery flow instead.

London might get lucky with the timings between convective zone coming in from the south and the frontal zone to the north. 

I personally still suspect that the models will shift it back southwards again over the next few suites however.

GFS is an outlier with just how wet the SE is, but most models still dumping somewhere in the 20-30mm of rain region for parts of the south over the weekend period.

Edited June 1, 2022 by kold weather