Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Cambrian]

The 0z GFS ensemble mean Z500 anomaly charts for today with high pressure to the northwest of the UK and Ireland, nicely show the about turn by day 6, being replaced by lower heights than normal to our northwest.
  

However, a closer look shows how stubborn the above average heights are to leave the southeast corner, so most of the coming week could be quite reasonable away from northwest Scotland and Ireland according to the GFS mean. By day 9 though, lower than normal heights in place across the UK and Ireland so good potential for more changeable weather for all going through next weekend.

The 0z ECM ensemble mean Z500 anomaly chart for day 6 is much firmer on markedly lower heights going into next Friday, which remain through to day 9,

 

so not such a good end to next week and much more cyclonic than the GFS, as shown here in the 0z operational runs, so plenty to be resolved here, even just by day 6; GFS / ECM

 

Despite the big differences at day 6, the pattern is similar for the trend through this coming week for lower heights to become installed across the UK and Ireland, so perhaps a more generally changeable weather pattern looking likely leading up to and through next weekend, just how changeable and the exact onset to become clearer with time. 

PS If they were charts showing high pressure and dry weather, I’d happily be showing them too, but they’re not - the indications are for a disappointing spell of weather coming up if you don’t like rain, but we get what we get! Have a great day.

[mb018538]

 

A day 6 chart that wouldn’t look out of place in October. Deep low crossing the UK.

[Scorcher]

16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

A day 6 chart that wouldn’t look out of place in October. Deep low crossing the UK.

It's by no means unheard of for this to happen in June though. I always find it amusing when people say certain charts are 'like October' or 'like November'. It's the UK, we can get lows crossing us at any time during the year.

I must admit that the outlook is looking hugely underwhelming this morning though. June is however the one month that I associated with big flips in the 2nd half of the month  more than any other. 2005 is the one that stands out as being particularly dramatic.

[mushymanrob]

23 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Theres some strange comments on here, some seem to be delighting in a cool outlook whilst others are bemoaning the lack of heat.

These charts are consistent, and have a high confidence rating..

Its all looking very average to me! This is the UK after all... A mean moderate Southwesterly upper flow courtesy of low pressure to our near West and high over the Continent. Id expect a bright sky (cloud will be an issue) muggy but warm feel to the air. There will be spells of rain, and of course some might be heavy, but there will be brighter/sunnier spells too. And theres the old NW/SE split ..

In all... id suggest its all pretty average, which isnt bad . With high to our East, chances of a plume are there... who knows, the high may even develop.

As for the Azores high.... thats only ever of any use when it displaces or ridges Eastward. If it sits there over the Azores as it does most of the time - it feeds us Westerlies or Northwesterlies ... Nah, id prefer troughing to our West, more chance of heat and thunderstorms.

And now these charts have taken a turn for the worse... not by much, but now expect the mean upper trough to our West to drift in closer. Theres no quick route to anything Summery/warm let alone hot on these charts before the Solstice at the earliest. And yes, Friday IS looking Autumnal, or like October, because that predicted weather is precisely what we would expect then.
So yesterday i suggested the outlook was "pretty average", today id suggest its "below average" .
On the plus side, theres no strong Northern Block, so whilst a very unsettled, mobile, pattern is likely itll be unlike 2012, so maybe wont last too long? After all, many great Summers started poor.
 

[sheikhy]

Not looking as wet for the midlands/wales tomorrow/monday as the rain band pushes further north now!!thank god!!!!could still change but at one point it looked like it ws gona rain all day sunday into monday!!

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

It's by no means unheard of for this to happen in June though. I always find it amusing when people say certain charts are 'like October' or 'like November'. It's the UK, we can get lows crossing us at any time during the year.

I must admit that the outlook is looking hugely underwhelming this morning though. June is however the one month that I associated with big flips in the 2nd half of the month  more than any other. 2005 is the one that stands out as being particularly dramatic.

We can - but compared to climatology, getting gale force or near gales force winds in June is well outside the norm. ECM has 70mph gusts on Friday on the 00z run. So - like October.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

As above folks....next week looking poor with Low Heights anchored to the West....I would say these conditions are akin to January

Tentative signs of improvements towards next Weekend and perhaps more of a traditional NW/SE split developing beyond then...im hopefull things will begin to improve towards mid month....work with me guys...backloaded summer is long overdue

The road is long but soon enough we will meet the next junction.

Try and enjoy yourselves whatever the conditions throw at us.

[Summer8906]

00Z ECM seems to be a bit less grim than the GFS, with a slack high building over the UK by Mon 13th.

[bluearmy]

the form horse is for the predicted upper trough to be less intrusive by next weekend than currently modelled. 
 

the euro heights look pretty resilient throughout - hence it only takes a small relaxation in the predicted jet for the Atlantic upper trough to dig south and bring those euro heights into play.  Obviously this is a better se than nw scenario overall. but if the Atlantic trough does sink then it could allow for the Azores to ridge across the top into n U.K. after all this is an evolution that we’ve seen play out twice in may ??

I wouldn’t be putting too much faith in any op modelling beyond four or five days at the moment - and the eps look troubled with only one cluster 

[mushymanrob]

33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the form horse is for the predicted upper trough to be less intrusive by next weekend than currently modelled. 
 

 

Anomalies dont agree with that... in fact they suggest itll be stronger and more dominant.

i hope they are wrong!

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

And yes, Friday IS looking Autumnal, or like October, because that predicted weather is precisely what we would expect then.

I'm entitled to my opinion, as are you. Temps will be a lot higher than an average day in October in many parts. 

So no, I still don't agree that that's anything like October. Certainly not 'precisely' what we would expect.

Edited June 4, 2022 by Scorcher
Added chart

[mushymanrob]

38 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm entitled to my opinion, as are you. Temps will be a lot higher than an average day in October in many parts. 

So no, I still don't agree that that's anything like October. Certainly not 'precisely' what we would expect.

so apart from the gale force winds, blustery rain/showers, often cloudy dull skies ...yes with a bit of brightness.. its not anything like october! lol...

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

so apart from the gale force winds, blustery rain/showers, often cloudy dull skies ...yes with a bit of brightness.. its not anything like october! lol...

Well, what can I say, the sun is a lot higher than it is in October.. am I right..or am I right?…and we still have P11…life is good!  

 

Edited June 4, 2022 by jon snow

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

Well, what can I say, the sun is a lot higher than it is in October.. am I right..or am I right?…and we still have P11…life is good!  

 

dunt matter how high the sun is m8, if its covered by cloud! lol

 

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

dunt matter how high the sun is m8, if its covered by cloud! lol

 

Chill out mushy..peace  ..there’s an Azores ridge in late august according too the cfs 0z.. no worries m8!   ..of course.. the sun will be a bit lower by then…

 

Edited June 4, 2022 by jon snow

[Wivenswold]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

dunt matter how high the sun is m8, if its covered by cloud! lol

 

Erm, well, no. Take this set up in October and it wouldn't be rain for some, it would be sleet or snow over high ground. I've sat out in the park in the sunshine today, a North Easterly in October even on a sunny day would be frigid here. So no, it's nothing like October even if it's wet, windy or whatever other extreme you want to pluck from the charts.
Maybe you're just fed up that it's looking disappointing for the end of the week and possibly a few days beyond here in early June.  
 

[Frosty.]

Well guys, please forgive me but I’m just trying to accentuate the positives and eliminate the negatives.. etc! …and there are at least some positives in the GEFS 12z which will hopefully mean June won’t be a busted flush!…  

[Cambrian]

This place is great. On 4 June, we’re discussing whether or not day 6 - which is being modelled differently by all the different modelling systems, and indeed differently by each one at different times, producing a plethora of charts that are in turn scrutinised with all the analytical prowess and collective objectivity we can muster - might in the event, subjectively to some, depending on location, seem a bit like a day in October. Only here 

 

psssst! ECM’s still at it with the secondary low formation serving to keep the complex further south for Friday on the 12z operational run.  Might feel a bit unseasonal that. 

[Frosty.]

The JMA 12h looks good longer term…thank you japan.. Arigatou!
️   

Edited June 4, 2022 by jon snow

[summer blizzard]

As alluded to, Euro maintains the cyclonic pattern to day 8 before attempting to cut-off a low near the Azores and build pressure.

[mb018538]

 

We are still seeing a total absence of a strong Azores high. Just seems to have gone for a burton at the moment with low pressure constantly out to our W/SW making a mess of things!

[Frosty.]

There’s probably no escaping a more inclement spell nationwide from around  midweek?..BUT..at least day 10 looks better on the ECMWF 12z op.. ?!
 

 

Edited June 4, 2022 by jon snow

[Don]

2 hours ago, jon snow said:

There’s probably no escaping a more inclement spell nationwide from around  midweek?..
 

 

Well, at least I won't have to worry about watering the plants aye?! 

[Panayiotis]

8 hours ago, mb018538 said:

 

We are still seeing a total absence of a strong Azores high. Just seems to have gone for a burton at the moment with low pressure constantly out to our W/SW making a mess of things!

Don’t think it’s a bad thing having low pressure to the SW/W; does give way to southerly winds if we can get HP building ahead/over Europe. A potential for a hot to very hot setup + convective thunderstorms (I.e plumes). At the end of the day we want high pressure over the UK not over the Azores. Interesting to see how this develops over the next few days ….

Edited June 5, 2022 by Panayiotis

[mb018538]

4 hours ago, Panayiotis said:

Don’t think it’s a bad thing having low pressure to the SW/W; does give way to southerly winds if we can get HP building ahead/over Europe. A potential for a hot to very hot setup + convective thunderstorms (I.e plumes). At the end of the day we want high pressure over the UK not over the Azores. Interesting to see how this develops over the next few days ….

It’s always more unstable when we have the low to the SW as it always generates humidity, cloud/storms etc and inevitably breaks down quickly. A nice classic build from the Azores can give a week of nice settled sunny weather. Something we just don’t seem to be able to buy at the moment!

Nothing too much of note on the 00z runs - until the tropical storm blows through then we will continue to see a lot of uncertainty and wildly changing model runs.