Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[mushymanrob]

14 hours ago, Wivenswold said:

Maybe you're just fed up that it's looking disappointing for the end of the week and possibly a few days beyond here in early June.  
 

No, because im not a child.
The October reference made not only by myself was reference to the synoptic charts more than the actual conditions... but thats all academic now anyway as the predicted charts have modified and will continue to do so before Friday.

Whilst the Ops are keen to bring the Azores high back into play after next weekend, the Anomalies are still having none of it... sadly... so a mobile, unsettled, below par pattern looks set through the mid month period. So based on those charts... nothing pleasant/summery (other than the odd day here and there) is likely before the solstice at the earliest.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 0z operational markedly improves through low res with strong anticyclonic influence meaning predominantly fine and warm conditions with sunny spells and light winds! ️

[summer blizzard]

Euro tried to build the ridge on the 0z but essentially fails with the Atlantic on course to claim victory.

[ANYWEATHER]

An unsettled spell of weather to come unfortunately,  the low appears to run out of steam by T+168 but leaves us in an unstable cool airmass ,ripe for more thunderstorms to develop....

[Earthshine]

Looking a wee bit plumey

[Summer8906]

22 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I'm entitled to my opinion, as are you. Temps will be a lot higher than an average day in October in many parts. 

So no, I still don't agree that that's anything like October. Certainly not 'precisely' what we would expect.

That temperature profile illustrates nicely why I dislike these southwesterly setups it has to be said. Warm or very warm over the near continent, cool (and doubtless dull and breezy with frequent drizzle showers, making it feel particularly unpleasant) in much of far southern England but London and East Anglia, and Yorkshire doing OK - a very common setup of the past 15 years.  Ironically the Manchester area is warmer than much of southern England - round here, we do very badly in this sort of setup. And looking at some of those temps, they actually wouldn't be too much different in a mild (as would be then) cyclonic SWly in October in the southwestern quarter of the UK. High teens in cyclonic SWlies in October isn't uncommon round here and further west.

GFS this morning seems to suggest a change after the weekend after what will be for many a thoroughly drab few days from Wednesday; a slack low over the UK (which will be more interesting than southwesterlies, might get some slow moving storms and photogenic Cbs out of that) followed by a build of pressure over the Atlantic.

Edited June 5, 2022 by Summer8906

[Methuselah]

Nice lot of warmth building away to our south & southeast. Well, it has to come from somewhere?

Edited June 5, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Guest]

Any decent weather looks fair way down the track, difficult tot see where the next 25C comes from. Although to be perfectly honest making 20C will be a struggle for many areas in the next 10days. 

 

[Earthshine]

Oh dear, let's hope this is wrong

[Mapantz]

Keep it to model discussion folks.

We have separate summer chat and moans threads for other discussions. 

[Guest]

GFS 12Z was an absolute yawnfest. No warmth really, westerly component and getting two sunny days next to each other seems to almost impossible. 

 

[bluearmy]

On 04/06/2022 at 12:22, bluearmy said:

the form horse is for the predicted upper trough to be less intrusive by next weekend than currently modelled. 
 

the euro heights look pretty resilient throughout - hence it only takes a small relaxation in the predicted jet for the Atlantic upper trough to dig south and bring those euro heights into play.  Obviously this is a better se than nw scenario overall. but if the Atlantic trough does sink then it could allow for the Azores to ridge across the top into n U.K. after all this is an evolution that we’ve seen play out twice in may ??

I wouldn’t be putting too much faith in any op modelling beyond four or five days at the moment - and the eps look troubled with only one cluster 

The ops are certainly headed towards that form horse.  Are they over reacting and will they revert back ?  Should be clear by Tuesday morning. 

[summer blizzard]

Out to day 8 and there is not really much uncertainty in the models, the Euro and GFS hold steadfast for a largely mobile, cyclonic pattern.

Out to day 9 and both interestingly try to amplify but fail miserably resulting in a Channel Low type forming with its heavy and thundery rain.

 

 

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Out to day 8 and there is not really much uncertainty in the models, the Euro and GFS hold steadfast for a largely mobile, cyclonic pattern.

Out to day 9 and both interestingly try to amplify but fail miserably resulting in a Channel Low type forming with its heavy and thundery rain.

 

 

The macro may be clear but the nuances ref the track and depth of the depression plus the just how the upper trough interacts with the euro ridge is certainly not. This makes a massive difference to how next weekend pans out across a large area of the U.K. 

Todays 12z eps for Saturday night compared to yesterdays 12z run 

     

Edited June 5, 2022 by bluearmy

[davehsug]

5 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Oh dear, let's hope this is wrong

It would be typical, the only area in the world at that latitude with a negative anomoly. Welcome to the UK summer.

[StormChaseUK]

18z is very warm, hot

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, StormChaseUK said:

18z is very warm, hot

0z are not.

GFS and UKMO Autumnal looking with deep lows (for Summer) close by.

Especially awful for the North and West.

 

[Penrith Snow]

Yes GFS very unsettled but as I said before after 3 months the Atlantic had to return eventually and I suspect we are looking at a good 4 week unsettled spell at least in the NW.

TBH I am bored with the annual summer chase which up here is always fruitless and I am looking for a cool wet summer which will make a cold winter in 20022/23 much more likely.

A synoptic rerun of June to December 2009 will do fine.

Andy

[mushymanrob]

22 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

No, because im not a child.
The October reference made not only by myself was reference to the synoptic charts more than the actual conditions... but thats all academic now anyway as the predicted charts have modified and will continue to do so before Friday.

Whilst the Ops are keen to bring the Azores high back into play after next weekend, the Anomalies are still having none of it... sadly... so a mobile, unsettled, below par pattern looks set through the mid month period. So based on those charts... nothing pleasant/summery (other than the odd day here and there) is likely before the solstice at the earliest.

No change.... expect average unsettled conditions through to at least the Solstice.

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

No change.... expect average unsettled conditions through to at least the Solstice.

Not looking too good is it. That said, this week isn't actually too horrific temperature wise (barring the NW England/Scotland, with temps suppressed here after a fine weekend), with many areas at least returning more like average. More of your typical UK temperature distribution, with rain more concentrated in the NW, drier SE.



No signs of any lasting settled and warm sunny weather though. Going to be right towards the end of June now before we could see a change.

[Earthshine]

27 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not looking too good is it. That said, this week isn't actually too horrific temperature wise (barring the NW England/Scotland, with temps suppressed here after a fine weekend), with many areas at least returning more like average. More of your typical UK temperature distribution, with rain more concentrated in the NW, drier SE.



No signs of any lasting settled and warm sunny weather though. Going to be right towards the end of June now before we could see a change.

July hopefully delivers something special

[Cambrian]

It looks like tropical storm Alex’s foray into the Northern Atlantic, just entered stage left at day 2, will first help to energise the flabby low as it merges with it over the mid Atlantic, the result of their coupling (steady!) deepening to a vigorous 985mb low at day 5 as it passes between Scotland and Iceland. Energy-rich tropical storms present a real challenge to the models, so with a by then ex-tropical storm still very much in the mix for day 5, there is low consensus and confidence about too much thereafter,

A range of outcomes possible, but the ECM and UKMO ops are both looking at clearing out the departing low to the north by day 7 allowing the Azores high to attempt extending a ridge northeast towards the UK and Ireland. This would give us an improvement following the cyclonic influence during the coming week. 

12z ECM and UKMO operational runs for days 2, 5 and 7, ECM charts first - 

  
   

Even if we get some form of ridge for a while, it doesn’t look like its effects will last much longer than a couple of days, with a low to the northwest reasserting by day 9 on the ECM, drifting our way for day 10, and we’re pretty much back to square one and where we were a week before.

 

To emphasise the uncertainty, the 0z GFS op doesn’t even bother with pointing the Azores ridge northeast at day 7, keeping it flatter to the south and a mobile pattern throughout for the UK and Ireland - day 7, 9 and 10.

  

 

[Earthshine]

11 hours ago, davehsug said:

It would be typical, the only area in the world at that latitude with a negative anomoly. Welcome to the UK summer.

Thankfully teleconnections are relatively weak for UK summers. La Nina has a more significant impact on winter weather.  Nobody can say they have confidence in forecasting the weather this summer

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by Earthshine

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

No change.... expect average unsettled conditions through to at least the Solstice.

That’s a brave call rob …… if forced to punt I’d be changeable at worst rather than unsettled 

 note the correction wnw of the upper trough for the weekend continues ……..

 

[mb018538]

High pressure on the ECM clusters showing over the UK at day 13. Could  just be scatter/noise at this stage, but one to watch.