Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

These charts would have to be very wrong for the ECM to be right.... and they might be, but it would be highly unusual if they were far out.
Average unsettled turning cool unsettled...

 

they certainly don’t seem to support any ideas of a sustained plume period but could allow for a transient one around day 10. 
 

note that the 564 dam thickness is across n england so although we see the anomolys on the low side across nw europe, the heights are not shabby and probably mean the majority of England may not be too bad.
 

yesterday mornings data was much more troughy than this mornings ridgier output re the upper flow. Would not be a surprise to see the 6/10 looking rather more promising on this evenings output. 

The eps extended clusters show quite large variations but plenty of amplification - if the amplified solution does verify this time, positioning the ridges and troughs is crucial and 500 miles here or there potentially makes a huge difference to nw europe. 

[Snowy L]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is an outlier this morning as you'd expect - but much like the GFS, the mean is now up at 10c by day 9. So perhaps some sort of brief warmer spell is being sniffed out by the models...

Outlier on the last day only and tbh given the profile on previous days it probably means it's pushing things East quicker than the rest. That is great for a quick plume, but not great for a sustained settled spell with the high remaining close to the UK. Give me the latter please.

[Guest]

The GFS ensemble mean jumps up again. 7 members warmer than the Ops run all pushing temps into the mid 30s - Feel very June 2019 with GFS sniffing out a ridiculous plume from nowhere! 
 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Some of these runs really are pushing the boat out on perhaps rivalling current records, especially for June. To beat July 2019 would have to take something extraordinary, but depending on the positioning of that cut off low West of Portugal and how that engages with the jet, then this could be quite a spectacular plume. 

[mb018538]

25 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The GFS ensemble mean jumps up again. 7 members warmer than the Ops run all pushing temps into the mid 30s - Feel very June 2019 with GFS sniffing out a ridiculous plume from nowhere! 
 

Mean is clearly heavily skewed up towards 15c by some of those crazy runs....but sheesh that'd be a turn up from nowhere if this happens. Needs A LOT of pieces to fall into the right places for this to even happen, and as the GFS has been performing horrendously in recent times I'm certainly not going to get my hopes up yet!

The largest ECM cluster wasn't a million miles from this scenario at day 9 in the 00z ensembles though. Let's see what the 12z says later.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

they certainly don’t seem to support any ideas of a sustained plume period but could allow for a transient one around day 10. 
 

note that the 564 dam thickness is across n england so although we see the anomolys on the low side across nw europe, the heights are not shabby and probably mean the majority of England may not be too bad.
 

yesterday mornings data was much more troughy than this mornings ridgier output re the upper flow. Would not be a surprise to see the 6/10 looking rather more promising on this evenings output. 

 

Absolutely, transient features are not shown on these..

not too bad in terms of rain?.. yep, but the upper flow is Northwesterly and thats not warm.. but i guess in the sun...

Agreed about the 6-10 day chart, tbh i thought it was a little bit stormier/unsettled than expected, but is within the general ball park?

Their confidence rating isnt very high either, so hopefully something more clement may arise

[Trom]

32 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Absolutely, transient features are not shown on these..

not too bad in terms of rain?.. yep, but the upper flow is Northwesterly and thats not warm.. but i guess in the sun...

Agreed about the 6-10 day chart, tbh i thought it was a little bit stormier/unsettled than expected, but is within the general ball park?

Their confidence rating isnt very high either, so hopefully something more clement may arise

Hello Mushy just trying to get my head around the anomalies.  I can interpret the charts but was a little uncertain regarding the source of the data.  They're essential 4 and 6 day rolling means taking data from GFS and ECM are they not?  How many days of model runs goes into each anomaly chart and if it's more than one is it weighted in anyway?

So do they show an averaging effect due to the use of multiple models, the fact that they span 4 and 6 days and the impact of multiple model runs?

Presumably being means over 4 and 6 days periods they are less likely to be influenced by a model showing run to run variation/volatility.  I guess of the flip side if a model correctly picks up on a directional change they will also be slower to show it.  Is that a correct interpretation?

[mushymanrob]

11 minutes ago, Trom said:

Hello Mushy just trying to get my head around the anomalies.  I can interpret the charts but was a little uncertain regarding the source of the data.  They're essential 4 and 6 day rolling means taking data from GFS and ECM are they not?  How many days of model runs goes into each anomaly chart and if it's more than one is it weighted in anyway?

So do they show an averaging effect due to the use of multiple models, the fact that they span 4 and 6 days and the impact of multiple model runs?

Presumably being means over 4 and 6 days periods they are less likely to be influenced by a model showing run to run variation/volatility.  I guess of the flip side if a model correctly picks up on a directional change they will also be slower to show it.  Is that a correct interpretation?

Yes they do iron out model variability...

Heres what they say themselves about the sources used, this is for the 6-10 day mean, its similar for the 8-14..

"The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 15% of Today's GFS Superensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and 20% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8"

I hope that answers your question

ps...theres more info where it says "prognostic discussion" bottom left of the chart

Edited June 9, 2022 by mushymanrob

[StormChaseUK]

Tentative signs of a hot spell between 17th-19th June .

[Guest]

GFS 12Z lining up almost identical to 06Z with the 20C isotherm nudging into the south coast. 

[clark3r]

12z not quite as hot as earlier run but still in low thirties for some in south east Thursday and Friday then heat eases at weekend I will happily take that for now 

[StormChaseUK]

Yes the 12z brings in the warmth earlier and then starts to fade during weekend.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

14 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS 12Z lining up almost identical to 06Z with the 20C isotherm nudging into the south coast. 

Hope it's wrong though, just max of 12 degrees for Saturday, after 28 on Thurs

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Hope it's wrong though, just max of 12 degrees for Saturday, after 28 on Thurs

Lol and 9C on Sunday, I think that solution is pretty unlikely. 

[Azazel]

29 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS 12Z lining up almost identical to 06Z with the 20C isotherm nudging into the south coast. 

If it could just nudge the heat into the weekend that will be the second year running where I’ve picked the perfect date for camping ️ 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lol and 9C on Sunday, I think that solution is pretty unlikely. 

EC looks best for summer fans! EC 12Z be as good? or trend towards GFS, with 2 day plume, then cool after

[Roadrunner]

1 hour ago, Azazel said:

If it could just nudge the heat into the weekend that will be the second year running where I’ve picked the perfect date for camping ️ 

That would be bloody hot in a tent in 30+ degree heat! 

[Craig84]

ECM 168. Heat pump in place to the SW. Here we go..

 

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by Craig84

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Craig84 said:

ECM 168. Heat pump in place to the SW. Here we go..

 

 

Prefer it to be a little closer and further north and east!!lets see how it goes!....

[Captain Shortwave]

A lot of fine weather on offer in the coming 7 days with high pressure being close enough to squeeze out any fronts with only a few showers (mostly in the north and west).

Some incredible heat building across Spain, yes it is usually hot here, but we are seeing 850s approaching 30c across central parts of the country. Mid 40s possible, which is pushing to the upper extremes in terms of all time temperatures.

 

Any plume evolution looks very complicated as the attempt coincides with a strong ridge pushing out of America. As we have seen in other models we end up with Arctic source air interacting with the low near the Azores, which could be quite volatile (or it won’t happen at all).

ECM is trying to tee up something rather steamy for the latter frames.

Edited June 9, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[JayAlmeida]

ECM 12z limiting the heat to one day before the predicted pattern of HP moving out into the Atlantic ensues. Those previous runs where nice while they lasted still a lot up for grabs this far out though I suppose. 

Edited June 9, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Methuselah]

25 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

A lot of fine weather on offer in the coming 7 days with high pressure being close enough to squeeze out any fronts with only a few showers (mostly in the north and west).

Some incredible heat building across Spain, yes it is usually hot here, but we are seeing 850s approaching 30c across central parts of the country. Mid 40s possible, which is pushing to the upper extremes in terms of all time temperatures.

 

Any plume evolution looks very complicated as the attempt coincides with a strong ridge pushing out of America. As we have seen in other models we end up with Arctic source air interacting with the low near the Azores, which could be quite volatile (or it won’t happen at all).

ECM is trying to tee up something rather steamy for the latter frames.

Roll on a trough extending down to Iberia?

[Scott Ingham]

17 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

ECM 12z limiting the heat to one day before the predicted pattern of HP moving out into the Atlantic ensues. Those previous runs where nice while they lasted still a lot up for grabs this far out though I suppose. 

This for me is the most likely outcome based on mushys anomalies just posted unfortunately. 

-AAM is due to tank literall off the scale in the coming two weeks which would certainly support such a pattern.

The final few days of June into July would be my best bet for the next settled spell

[JayAlmeida]

18 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This for me is the most likely outcome based on mushys anomalies just posted unfortunately. 

-AAM is due to tank literall off the scale in the coming two weeks which would certainly support such a pattern.

The final few days of June into July would be my best bet for the next settled spell

The frame @+240 is such a typically British outcome with massive amounts of heat almost reaching us only to be swept away by a magnetic low with only the SE benefitting from said brief interaction. It's a pity ENSO, MJO and AAM have to interact perfectly for us to have a chance of decent summer weather.

Edited June 9, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Guest]

We can't forget about the GEM model